Good Tuesday evening, gang. While the milder air continues to rule the pattern in the short-term, it’s the longer term that’s getting all the attention. We have a MAJOR pattern change coming to North America as we head into next week. It’s a pattern that will then try to lock us into a very wintry setup.
It’s interesting to look at the closest analogs to the current pattern being forecast on the GFS. Some heavyweight December’s show up…
The top 3 analogs are from similar patterns in 1989, 1963 and 1989. 1989 is on the list a 3rd time, 1989 is the coldest December on record for Lexington. 1963 comes in at 3rd. 1983 is also on the analog list and is the 7th coldest. Those 3 years had something else in common… They all featured temps hitting the upper 50s and low 60s in the first week of December. Also, every year on that list checked in colder than normal.
Whether or not we can get close to any of those winters remains to be seen, but the pattern has the look.
The European Ensembles show a deep trough that doesn’t budge because of mega blocking showing up to our north…
The seasonal model known as the CFS continues to head toward the ideas we have been talking about for a while. Look at the 5 day average temperature departures showing up on the run from December 9-13…
Keep in mind, those are in Celsius!!
Let’s skip ahead to the 5 days surrounding Christmas…
New Year’s…
The first 12 days of January…
Locked and loaded? It’s a heck of a look and matches up with the analog years I’ve thrown out there since the summer.
Enjoy your evening and take care.
That excite me. Maybe it will get rid of some bugs.
I would settle for even one good snow event and several clippers between now and February, though I want more:)
Looks cold and dry to me..What fun is that..Florida may get snow so lets all chase to Florida..Would be awful to get a set up like this and no snow..Sometimes too much blocking is a bad thing..
December 1989 had a lot of snow. FWIW anyway.
Yea really don’t think it’s gonna get vodka cold this early in December..Do see sign’s on some of the model’s with energy coming out of the sw..Blocking and the right amount of cold may make for interesting times ahead for someone..
Holy crap Chris, could be cold for a while. Sort of reminds me of a 70s winter.
Bet those systems go deep south and miss Kentucky altogether, that would be our luck in a nutshell.
Wow, that is incredible. I can’t even remember the last time we had a Cold pattern lock in for more than a few days at a time. Now let’s see if we can get some snow chances to go along with the cold!
Mr Bailey is excited. Rodger is too but EVERYTHING needs to come together to get Kentucky measurable snow. Cold in place but not too much to push the moisture too far south, cold doesn’t get overthrown by too much warmth with the moisture, low track through the TN valley. When it comes together, it’s a beautiful thing. When one piece doesn’t fit, it’s a cold rain! This is Rodger in Dodger