Good Tuesday evening, gang. While the milder air continues to rule the pattern in the short-term, it’s the longer term that’s getting all the attention. We have a MAJOR pattern change coming to North America as we head into next week. It’s a pattern that will then try to lock us into a very wintry setup.

It’s interesting to look at the closest analogs to the current pattern being forecast on the GFS. Some heavyweight December’s show up…

The top 3 analogs are from similar patterns in 1989, 1963 and 1989. 1989 is on the list a 3rd time,  1989 is the coldest December on record for Lexington. 1963 comes in at 3rd. 1983 is also on the analog list and is the 7th coldest. Those 3 years had something else in common… They all featured temps hitting the upper 50s and low 60s in the first week of December. Also, every year on that list checked in colder than normal.

Whether or not we can get close to any of those winters remains to be seen, but the pattern has the look.

The European Ensembles show a deep trough that doesn’t budge because of  mega blocking showing up to our north…

The seasonal model known as the CFS continues to head toward the ideas we have been talking about for a while. Look at the 5 day average temperature departures showing up on the run from December 9-13…

Keep in mind, those are in Celsius!!

Let’s skip ahead to the 5 days surrounding Christmas…

New Year’s…

The first 12 days of January…

Locked and loaded? It’s a heck of a look and matches up with the analog years I’ve thrown out there since the summer.

Enjoy your evening and take care.