Good Wednesday, folks. We have weak cold front ready to cross the state on Thursday, but that’s not the system everyone is interested in. That one comes early next week and unleashes a very cold pattern across the eastern half of the country. It’s a pattern that looks to lock in for a while, bringing winter weather with it.
In the short-term, it’s another milder than normal day out there on a gusty southwesterly wind. Temps in the north will come down just a bit, but should stay above normal.
A cold front sweeps in here quickly on Thursday, bringing gusty showers through the region. Rainfall totals may hit a quarter of an inch in some spots…
After a seasonal day on Friday, temps rebound again this weekend into Monday. From there, we start to see the much anticipated change showing up.
The GFS has rain increasing later Monday into Tuesday as our front presses in. The model suggests some mixing is possible as the cold takes hold…
The European Model is getting faster and faster with the cold air surging in here. Here we go from Monday into Tuesday…
The model then follows that up with a VERY strong system diving in from the northwest by Thursday and Friday…
There is a “wow” factor to that system. That’s especially true when looking at the upper levels…
That has an extreme look to it!
The GFS is on board with a similar setup for next week, then goes crazy the following week. Watch how the blocking keeps this pattern on repeat…
It’s been a few years since we’ve heard the term polar vortex, but there’s a chance you hear it in the coming weeks.
We know about the cold coming, but what about the snow chances? Folks, we are likely to have several chances for snow out of this pattern. I can’t pinpoint any one system or day, I can’t say big or little, but you would be hard pressed to get that type of pattern to develop without some snow around here.
The GFS Ensembles continue to be amped up with the snow chances over the next 2 weeks. Here are the latest 3 runs from the model…
For a smoothed out ensemble, that’s a pretty good signal.
I will have updates later today. Enjoy your Wednesday and take care.
Yes! The “blocking party” invite has been sent out. Now, we all know the ensembles can drive one crazy with the eye candy, but I love seeing color all the way down in SE TX and Louisiana!
Not necessarily. If the cold air overwhelms the pattern, moisture can be shunted more south and we get ugly dry cold. That happens often. We want it cold but not too cold. Rodger in Dodger
I think it will have a hard time overwhelming anything due to the lack of snow cover. Waiting for the WRONG. 😉
It’s possible to get snows with this type of cold air, even though people say it’s too cold to snow. I remember in Feb 2014, when we had that first HUGE snow it stayed 12 degrees through the entire thing here in Lexington, during the day.
If we just had a southern component to combine with the disturbances coming from the northwest. This is what happens when we receive a decent snow.
I see those three GFS runs and instinctively think the snowfall prediction will move farther and farther east with every new run, until we get flurries but get to watch the Philadelphia and NYC get blizzards.
Yep, it is dicey for different reasons in getting much snow from these set-ups. Usually snow globe snow, or flurries with a few local bands that result in ankle biters for some. 1989 has moisture locked in as well, which resulted in a lot of snow for mid and late December and on into January. If the case here, it should also be showing up as part of the outlook miss.
Seems snow globe snow might possbilbly be the main theme (pretty to look at, not much on the ground).
Interesting possibilities, but not biting the cheese just yet