Winter Arrives In The Week Ahead

Good Sunday to one and all. Our nice weather pattern continues out there today, but Old Man Winter is about ready to arrive. Once he takes control of the pattern, he’s likely to flex some muscle for much of the country in the coming weeks.

Let’s start with today and roll forward. Highs today will be around 60, give or take a few degrees, with a mostly sunny sky.

Southwesterly winds will kick up on Monday, boosting temps well into the 60s for most of the region. Clouds will quickly roll in with showers and storms developing in the west Monday night and rolling eastward into Tuesday. This is ahead of our cold front, ushering in the change to winter…

There is still the chance for the cold to catch the back edge of the departing rain shield across eastern Kentucky. That could cause a few flakes to fly Tuesday night…

Cold northwesterly winds settle into town on Wednesday, pushing temps to well below normal. From there, we turn our attention to a couple of systems diving in from the northwest Thursday through Saturday. For the past week, the GFS  has been consistent in showing a healthy clipper dropping in during this time frame. It varies from run to run on intensity and track, but it’s always there.

The latest run goes coo coo for cocoa puffs with the setup. If you ever want to get a clipper to bomb out, this is the upper level way to do it…

Here’s the end result…

It’s been a long time since I’ve seen a system do that around here, but it has happened before. Is it taking the setup to the extreme? Yes. Is it likely to happen exactly that way? The odds are against it, but I can’t say it’s impossible by any means.

The European Model continues to waffle on how much energy to hold back from the first system coming in here on Tuesday. That winds up playing a huge part in the late week setup. As is, the European Model aloft isn’t too far away from the GFS…

It continues to be disjointed in trying to handle all the disturbances dropping in from the northwest. Once we get past the first trough passing through the west on Monday, I bet we see big changes in the European later this week.

As is, the model brings light accumulating snows to the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys from late Thursday through early Saturday…

How will all of this turn out later in the week? I cannot tell you that, yet, What I can say is we have an increasing chance to put some snow on the ground later this week into the start of the weekend. That would be followed by arctic air for the weekend. Honestly, I can’t say anything beyond that. Let’s see how the system shows up here in a couple of days.

But, as I said earlier, the intensity of these clippers can sneak up on the models.

The GFS Ensembles continue to be “not shy” with the snow chances over the next 2 weeks…

I will update things later today. Enjoy your mild Sunday and take care.


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7 Responses to Winter Arrives In The Week Ahead

  1. Wouldn't you like to know. says:

    It seems like it has been a very long time since west KY has had anything significant snow wise this early. Looking foward to the late week system for sure. If only we could get some gulf moisture involved we would have a pretty good setup with the cold air in place, the past few years have been back loaded and we didn’t have the cold air in the right time and place 75% of the time. Maybe this will be the year we get the big one early. Last I remember we got one in December was the storm of ’04. 17″ in my back yard.

  2. MarkLex says:

    I never really understood the 2nd to last map. I mean, I get that blue line diving down means cold and a trough. But it’s the shaded areas that look like “energy” or clouds. Is the grey actually precip or just clouds? If you notice the darker greens I know that obviously means precip, I’m just not sure if the lighter grey areas mean precip.

  3. Schroeder says:

    I hope the first front doesn’t push through here too quickly, so we may receive a good soaking rain. Since there is no southern component, we will have to take what the clippers bring. I feel the best chance for accumulating snow will be in the mountain areas of the state. The ski resorts will be able to make snow where it doesn’t naturally fall at lease to make up for last year.

  4. Chris Bowles says:

    Guys,

    The grey is moisture just like the green. That maps showing light green is actually moderate snowfall. Grey is lighter.

    • Schroeder says:

      Thank you for clarifying. On the other, when the trough gets situated later next week, we will learn where the primary or dominate winter storm tract will be. I think we will be hearing the old weather term Nor’Easter a lot this winter along with lake effect snows.

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