Tracking The Big Changes

Good Tuesday, folks. We have a strong cold front rolling across the state today, bringing major changes to our weather. A winter pattern then takes shape as the week wears on, kicking into high gear by the weekend and into next week.

Let’s talk about today before we get to all that.

Temps this morning are upper 50s and low 60s for many, with winds gusting to 40mph at times. Showers and thunderstorms are rolling across the state, just ahead of the cold front…

Temps behind this front then tank into the upper 30s and low 40s behind the boundary. Readings will continue to drop through the 30s this evening, with an outside shot at a flake or two flying, especially in the far east…

Temps Wednesday will be seasonally cold as we await a colder push of air for Thursday. That may produce a few flakes here or there, but the main action arrives Friday night into Saturday. That’s the system we have been watching for more than a week now.

The models have been consistently showing this feature, but vary on timing and intensity as it dives in from the northwest. The GFS is back to showing a stronger feature…

That strong of an upper level system would be enough to produce light snow on it’s own, but we are also tracking a surface feature with it. This clipper zips right on trop of us…

The European Model isn’t as strong with either feature, but still develops a nice area of light snow…

Both models show accumulating snows across our region, with the GFS suggesting a 1″-3″ event, and the European model with an inch or two in the central and east. Again, that’s just me telling you what those runs are showing and not a forecast from me.

I continue to maintain we have a good chance of seeing a light accumulating snow Friday night through Sunday morning. I will try to get a little more specific with updates later today.

With clippers, you usually have to get within 48 hours to see what they can really offer up. Many times, models will underestimate them from this far out.

Teachers and students looking for a snow day have to like the potential next week. As additional arctic air shots dive in here, several snow systems will be possible…

That’s being pushed by what amounts to the polar vortex spinning across southern Canada and into the northern tier of the country. This is pretty awesome to see…

Notice how stable the overall pattern is there. You can also see the blocking getting stronger over Greenland by day 10. That’s a strongly negative NAO that keeps pushing the arctic cold into the eastern half of the country.

I will have your usual updates later today. Have a good one and take care.


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15 Responses to Tracking The Big Changes

  1. TennMark says:

    A 40 mph gust was just clocked in Bowling Green. LOL (lots of lightning) in a solid line from about Memphis to Cincinnati, so not the best of times for light sleepers 😉 but at least the severe wx threat remains nil.

  2. JJTeach says:

    This teacher is getting excited!

  3. Schroeder says:

    Thanks Chris for all the updates. This pattern change reminds me of the late 1980’s during that great drought. For two to three years during the winter we had a lot of clipper systems that would deposit a few inches of snow to a dusting. The east coast however received the typical Nor’Easters all through January and February. We can only hope that we can get a storm system out of the western Gulf of Mexico to combined with a clipper system to give us something to remember.

  4. Bernard P. Fife says:

    NWS has our neck of the woods with a 40% chance of snow showers Saturday morning with anything turning to rain in the afternoon with a high of 39. It would be nice to see that 32 or so be a sustained temp for about 24 hours to enjoy any white stuff that’s flying around.

    • MarkLex says:

      Something I’ve noticed for YEARS – when you look at the NWS local 7-day forecast when extreme heat or cold is possible in the forecast – they usually will show 5 days current being average, no big deal temps, and as it gets closer to that day, it either drops or rises significantly. They almost always go conservative, which can be a good thing, but not always. Take a random Monday – if Friday/Saturday that week is supposed to turn much colder, you will see NWS showing high temps around 39. When Thursday arrives, that 39 drops to 35. Then when Friday arrives, it stays 29 all day long. I’ve seen this so many times I can’t count.

  5. Lotsasnow says:

    If your south if the ohio river nothing will stick

  6. winter lover says:

    Our metro here far western,ky are saying chance of snow Friday nite and Saturday as temp will only reach 32 for the high Saturday, but there also saying temps will rebound near 50 by next Monday. I’ll take Chris forecast any day.

  7. Mike S says:

    Our local Mets in the Louisville market are not on board for high temps struggling to reach the freezing mark over the next week. But even the Euro brings 850 millibar temps in a range of -15 to -20 degrees in about a week from now. That would be supportive of surface temperatures barely reaching 30 degrees if that.

  8. BubbaG says:

    Looks like best case is a few possible ankle biters for December. That would still be more than all of last winter for most of us. Nowhere to go but up from last winter 🙂

  9. nasdaq says:

    latest gfs hammers ky with these clippers, of course that will probably be change next run, lets see the euro

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