Tracking Some Light Snow

Good Tuesday, folks. A quick-hitting light snow maker works across parts of the state early today, bringing the potential for light accumulations. After this moves away, we concentrate on two more systems later this week and the pattern leading up to Christmas.

Let’s start with today and roll forward. Light snow and snow showers will be noted across parts of central and, especially, eastern Kentucky this morning. You can see the Lake Michigan connection setting up for a time today…

That seems to match up pretty well with the first and only call for snowfall…

This does not look like a repeat of Saturday, but a few roads may see some issues developing.

Temps drop all day long on a STRONG northwest wind. Readings fall through the 20s with wind chills dropping through the teens. Bundle up. Your tracking tools in a bit.

Another clipper drops into the Ohio Valley Wednesday night. Winds will also be VERY gusty with this and we have an increasing threat for some snow showers coming behind this…

At  he end of that animation, you can see the next system diving in across the plains. That is slated to arrive in here late Thursday night into Friday. We are also likely to see some kind of low develop to our south and east at the same time. Can we get that system to develop far enough west to impact our region?

That’s the big question over the next few days. As is, the models bring us snow from the system diving in from the northwest, but keep the low east.

GFS

It would not take much westward correction to turn that into a bigger system around here.

The Canadian is stronger with the system moving in from the northwest, and weaker with the low in the east…

That cold air gets pushed around on Saturday, as we get set for a stronger system coming from the southern branch of the jet stream. This one may bring a mixed bag of weather our way later Sunday…

The setup in the days leading up to Christmas looks very active. Arctic air invades the country and tries to team up with an active storm track. Let’s see where it leads us.

I have you all set to track today’s flakes…

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road
Lexington
I-75 @ Winchester Road

I-75 @ Iron Works Pike
Lexington

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ Buttermilk Pike

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

US 60 @ US 127
Frankfort
US60 @ US127

US 60 @ Chenault Road
Near Millville
US60 @ Chenault Road

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

Updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.


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27 Responses to Tracking Some Light Snow

  1. MarkLex says:

    Hey coffeelady –
    On your last comment, you had said your friend was under a winter weather advisory for 8 to 12 inches of snow? Are you sure that’s accurate? I just didn’t realize ANY part of the USA would consider 8 to 12 inches advisory only.

    • Tyler says:

      In the lake effect regions of Ohio it would only be advisory level. It’s all about perception and what a location is used to or what is normal to them.

  2. nasdaq says:

    That nasty SE Ridge about to rear its ugly head again, Just in time for Christmas..ugh

  3. Terry says:

    The only thing that is wrong with the current clipper pattern is that the energy and axis of the trough set up about 300 or so miles NE last week and continues this week; thus, we are not getting the main energy nor are we getting any real help from the lakes…stinks!. The blocking pattern has failed us so far but maybe some hope if we can wake up the southern branch.

    • Mike S says:

      Over the last several days, the GFS Ensembles have produced a weaker version of the blocking pattern, at least the Greenland Block…looking at NAO, those red values keep the coldest air north and northeast of the region along with its primary energy source. Does not mean we won’t see cold air, but turnover is quick. Kind of like someone sucker punching you from behind and they run away before you know what hit ya.

      https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html

      • Terry says:

        My hope is that the axis will shift back east when (if) the block can hold through Christmas week and be fairly weak with an active southern jet around the TN valley to maybe phase us a good wet snow… a lot ifs, when’s along changes, right:/

  4. B H says:

    Here in Southern Ohio that last clipper gave us a inch or better where I live. Slick roads and all. We’ll see what this next one does.

  5. Farmer43 says:

    I said before that this pattern is boring the cold is not that impressive to me yes different than last year at this time but like terry said the trough is to Far East and looks like a moderation is coming pretty quick need the trough to shift more back to the west but not to far.When December ends I’ll be interested to see how far from normal we finish

  6. Rodger in Dodger says:

    Rodger’s momma told him if he can’t say something nice don’t say anything at all. Early season snow misses have Rodger in a foul mood this morning. Rodger in Dodger

  7. Schroeder says:

    The subtropical jet is a main player into major winter weather events for our area. It’s the position of the trough, which contains the Polar jet that is important as to what type of precipitation we may experience.

  8. Bernard P. Fife says:

    Thelma Lou told me in her opinion we now have a 12.4% chance to get a white Christmas.

  9. DJC says:

    Long range models show everything from flooding (southeast KY) to ice and snow around Christmas as the Arctic battles the Southeast Ridge. Arctic boundary stalls for awhile right over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.

    • Troy says:

      Don’t buy into long range models…after all, the 12 hour short range hi res NAM couldn’t even get this clipper right from a few hours out… Mother nature says fooled you and your computer models yet again!

      • Rodger in Dodger says:

        Rodger that! Long range computer models in the winter are fool’s gold. Bet on cold rain for us whenever significant moisture arrives. Rodger in Dodger

  10. Matt says:

    Half the counties around here called off school and it hasn’t snowed a flake yet.. Good to be cautious I suppose.

  11. winter lover says:

    As long there’s a high ridge pressure sitting at west these cold spells won’t last long as each clipper goes by. It’s seems the warm sets in faster than the cold air be able to set in. There’s is an end of this pattern as we head to Christmas weekend maybe mother nature will give us a gift for a white Christmas.

  12. Andy Rose says:

    Radar and temps look promising this morning.

  13. marshs says:

    What’s the deal here ITS RAINING

  14. Mike S says:

    We need some of that real deal cold air to penetrate the Midwest and Southern Plains and have that southern jet phase near Oklahoma City and plow east and northeast….

    • Schroeder says:

      Mike, that’s what I have been saying the last few weeks. Thanks for showing the graph of the NAO and the other oscillations. Looks like we are going back to the positive phase on the NAO, which would change the current pattern, maybe what we had back to the Autumn pattern ?

  15. c-BIV says:

    Anybody taking bets still on those first snow days of the season? It’s now been 665 days since Kentucky’s last Winter Storm Warning.

  16. Chris g in clay county says:

    Ky weather. The bubba rule applies.

    32 degrees and above = moisture
    Below 32 degrees = no moisture

    I don’t see any bubba busters this season. Chances of a few ankle biters but no bubba busters.

    • Prelude says:

      You don’t see any big snow’s this season??? What are you basing that on? A hunch or a gut feeling? Any real science behind your thinking? Bottom line is it’s not even officially winter yet, good grief!!! Model watching is the worst thing one can do it changes every 6 hours most models won’t see a potential snowstorm until a few days before it happens.

  17. Schroeder says:

    When all models come into agreement, the snowstorm is already in progress.

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