A Quick Update

Good afternoon, folks. I wanted to drop by for a very quick midday update on where this pattern is going for the rest of the week and in the run up to Christmas. I don’t have much time, so let’s get busy.

Winds are going to increase this afternoon and evening and may hit 40mph in some of the gusts. This happens as a strong clipper works by just to our north. That’s where the accumulating snows will be, but a few flakes or sprinkles may sneak into the north and northeast this afternoon…

Overnight, the front drops in with a few flurries or maybe a light snow shower. The best chance is across the east.

Another flurry maker moves in on Friday as temps stay well below normal.

The system coming in later this weekend appears to be splitting into two systems. The first part arrives on Sunday with chilly showers…

The second part comes out by Monday night and Tuesday and keeps trending much colder…

The colder trend continues to show up, as expected, on the operational models. While they offer big swings from one run to the other, the trend for cold and wintry continues to be there as we get closer to Christmas.

The GFS by the end of next week into Christmas weekend…

With arctic cold taking over much of the country, a southeast ridge is going to try to fight with it. That spells a very active setup across the eastern half of the country, with storm systems rolling between the cold and mild. You can see the theme of this pattern on the new GFS through Christmas week…

Don’t take individual systems and timing to heart, I’m just showing that to illustrate the overall pattern.

Oh, and the cold is impressive…

What a far cry from the last 3 Decembers around here!

I will update again this evening. Enjoy the day and take care.

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16 Responses to A Quick Update

  1. nasdaq says:

    you know things are getting exciting when chris post before the euro runs

  2. Coffeelady says:

    Thsnks Chris. Will be keeping an eye on the blog because I know you will keep a weather eye out! Have a great afternoon all!

  3. Michael says:

    UPS just delivered my snow tires. There will be no snow the rest of the season now.

  4. Andy Rose says:

    Temps made it up to the mid 40s today in my backyard.

  5. Schroeder says:

    Thanks for the updates Chris.

  6. Cold Rain says:

    Guess a little bit of a SE ridge is a good thing for our area along with a stout EPO..Hopefully will keep waves riding into our area and not going South like last event..Sure looks interesting at the moment for all types of precip..Guess we’ll know 8 days from now..lol

    • Rodger in Dodger says:

      Rodger’s been around just long enough to know eight days out is an eternity in winter weather forecasting world. Nice to see a favorable pattern but the details are what matter and that won’t be known until maybe six hours before precip starts. This is Rodger in Dodger

  7. Cold Rain says:

    Another model that’s rearing an ugly head..Confusing times in the long range..


    • MarkLex says:

      Well, it’s funny how if mid-week (today) a hypothetical huge snowstorm would be possible for the late weekend, but forecasters would not be certain of the playout until near the event, right?
      So how is it that mid-week, forecasters are almost sure the late weekend system will split into two systems. Both scenarios are the equal amount of days out.

  8. winter lover says:

    Long range forecast you gotta take it as grain of salt until at least 24 hours prior the winter storm hits.

  9. Jimbo says:

    In my area the last three years, Clipper systems have been much weaker than the ones several years ago. They only produce a light coating at best, about like a heavy frost. I remember back in 2013, I would get at least 2 inches out of most Clippers. Nothing more than festive flakes anymore.

  10. nasdaq says:

    18z GFS is probably too good to be real, next few days of runs will be interesting for sure

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