Wednesday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. Gusty winds continue to blow as a cold front settles into the region. We’ve already had a few reports of sprinkles, flurries and sleet falling, and another round of that is possible later this evening, with flurries by morning.

The best chance in the action this evening is across the north and northeast…

Colder winds will blow into Thursday with another flurry maker arriving on Friday.

Saturday continues to look good, with our next system coming in two waves. The first arrives Sunday with chilly showers…

The next one comes out late Monday into Tuesday and taps a much colder setup behind it…

Behind that, the GFS continues to bring in the winter charge as we head toward the end of next week and into the start of Christmas weekend…

Here’s the animated version of the GFS that goes through the rest of the Christmas holiday…

That’s a lot of arctic cold showing up….

The GFS Ensembles are also VERY cold during the same time period. Here’s the 5 day temperature departures in Celsius…

If may have noticed I haven’t shown much of the European Model over the past few weeks. That’s because the model has been having all kinds of issues with what to do with troughs coming from the west. The bias of the model is to keep WAY too much energy in the west as it suffers feedback issues with the Rockies.

To illustrate why the model has some issues, let’s take a look at the past 2 runs at for the end of next week.

Last night’s run had a deepening trough across the eastern part of the country and a huge ridge in the west…

12 hours later, the model totally reversed the pattern with a big ridge in the east and a trough in the west…

While I expect to see all models show some occasional big changes from run to run, that’s pretty extreme and it’s something the model has been doing a lot of lately.

I will see you guys later tonight. Make it a good one and take care.

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9 Responses to Wednesday Evening Update

  1. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Appreciate you. Tie down outside stuff tonight everyone, or it may be gone tomorrow! Have a good evening all.

  2. Prelude says:

    It’s really hard at times for me to take the GFS at face value. If you believe the GFS when it comes to snow we would average 50-75 inches of snow every winter.

    • Terry says:

      Yeah….we already “missed” about 9 plus inches on those ensemble runs a few weeks ago for the first half of December …lol. like Chris repeatedly mentions, he only shows those ensembles to illustrate the direction of the pattern. Right now, the southeast ridge factor could be more of a “warm problem” for SE KY and puts Central/W KY in a more favorable winter weather track…who knows!

    • Cold Rain says:

      Really don’t know which model to take at face values anymore..Even the ensembles go back and forth..Ensembles did nail the pattern were in right now though..I’m just a causal observer so that’s why Chris get’s paid the big bucks to more understand the pattern ahead..Too many moving parts for me to understand..

    • Bjenks says:

      Prelude you are absolutely correct. But, I will say a couple years ago it was spot on and we got a few good snows.
      This could become an Apps runner before said and done.

    • Troy says:

      Exactly Prelude! The GFS is a complete joke from 2 days out, much less 10 days when it comes to snow….on the other hand it might actually get that ice storm right! ugh!!!

  3. Cold Rain says:

    Just now looked at the earlier GFS run..What can you

  4. WeatherCoach says:

    Thanks Bailey for all you do to keep us informed!! We follow you daily…You are the official weather source for us in Elliott County!!

  5. Crystal In Pikeville says:

    The wind is blowing

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