Breaking Down The Busy Pattern Ahead

Good Thursday, everyone. Colder winds are back and blowing across the bluegrass state today. This is behind a front that dropped through here overnight.  This is part of a pattern that has been very busy and is about to get even busier in the run up to Christmas.

Temps out there today are in the 30s for highs, but gusty winds will make it feel like the 20s for most of the day. A few clouds will be noted and some of these clouds may spit out a few flurries or an out and out snow shower in the east…

Another weak system passes across the Ohio Valley on Friday and may spit out a few flakes. Highs are back in the upper 30s for most areas, which is still several degrees below normal.

Saturday looks like the best day we will see for a while. Temps in the west and south make a run at 50, with 40s for the rest of the region. Winds are gusty with some clouds increasing late in the day.

Those clouds are ahead of a shower maker for Sunday…

That’s a cold rain, too. Temps are in the upper 30s and low 40s for most of the day.

Another system will come out at some point early next week, but the focus is on what comes after that. The pattern continues to suggest one heck of a battle taking place right on top of our region from late next week into Christmas week. The GFS continues to show this with a slightly different orientation of the battleground.

The latest run is not shy on precipitation, nor precipitation types…

The amount of liquid precipitation on that particular run…

Don’t take that run seriously… I’m only showing it, like all other runs, to establish a trend. The operational runs will vary greatly from run to run.

Several days ago, I posted this map showing my thoughts on where the pattern was going by Christmas weekend…

Compare that to the latest GFS Ensembles 5 day average temperature anomalies centered on Christmas…

THAT is a heck of a match to the map I’ve had out for a while.

What about the wintry look on the same GFS Ensembles. Here’s the average snowfall through Saturday, December 23rd…

Let’s take that same map and add the next 5 days to it…

The only thing to take away from all of the above maps is this: The pattern is conducive for winter weather in our region from late next week through Christmas week.

I will have additional updates later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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35 Responses to Breaking Down The Busy Pattern Ahead

  1. B H says:

    All we have to do now is watch and wait.

  2. Schroeder says:

    Mother Nature so far has let us down as far as winter weather events and I mean snow not ice. On the bright side of the coin, it hasn’t been too cold and we have had more sunny days than cloudy, and the heating bills have been low. Have a great day everyone.

  3. Bernard P. Fife says:

    Thelma Lou feels the current winter pattern we’re in could have been stronger & from looking at those maps Christmas will more than likely be a wash out for most of the state, seems the white stuff wants to hold off til after the big day…but who knows right now, things can change. She says white Christmas chances 5.5%.

  4. Michael Carson says:

    I have been watching the GFS runs since last weekend. It is all over the place. Do we really want to see an ice storm in here for Christmas weekend. I say, lets make this plain rain and yearn for winter in the new year.

  5. Bjenks says:

    FENCE!!!!!! And what side will you be on. Eight inches of precipitation for some. We are in for a wet Christmas unless the cold air can win out and if that happens KY just may get the most snow it has ever seen.

    Not getting my hopes up. Just watching and waiting to see if ole Mother Nature will do us a favor and give us a White Xmas.

  6. Matt says:

    So it’s probably going to rain 5 days straight all through Christmas.. Sounds like fun.. 🙁

  7. Blizzardtim says:

    Looks like ice and freezing rain and sleet could be a big issue along the boundary, wherever it decides to set up..gfs is all over the place yesterday had snow and cold today warm and rain..I gotta feeling the se ridge is gonna pump up the warm air when the artic front pushes deep into the plains..looks as if it it will push all the way deep into Texas. and if that’s the case and it decides to do so means the rain train sets up somewhere to the east of that..if the front stalls and doesn’t decide to head east south east into the lower Ohio and TN valley. Then guess who ends up on the fence.!?!

    • BubbaG says:

      The only big event we could see is ice or mix. Snow chances (beyond an ankle biter) seems to be mainly north of the Ohio river and to our east. That is not my guessing, but the weather outlooks that seem to be playing out so far this winter and CB’s own outlook appears to agree. Could be another year of missing the snow forecast though.

  8. Lotsasnow says:

    Ok I’m thinking that high in the se Atlantic will get surpressed allowing the arctic air to invade way into the south keeping everything snow ice rain well south of kentucky.

  9. Prelude says:

    It’s all dependent on how strong that pesky SE Ridge is going to be.

    • BubbaG says:

      We probably want a wimpy ridge. Less Fencetucky then. More cold rain though, but better than the other potential option that comes with the fence.

      • Prelude says:

        The stronger the SE Ridge is that puts us in the warm sector, just rain. The weaker the SE Ridge is the cold air will dominate and that will cause the issues of what exactly will fall from the sky. Rather it be sleet, snow, or freezing rain.

        • BubbaG says:

          Sorry, referring to the cold air placement in relation- If the overall flow is equal in energy we get the fence and more set-up potential for warm air aloft.

  10. teach says:

    Just making an observation, but the GFS ensembles showing show have been wrong since early October. They show the possibility of snow amounts, but we have yet to see anything near that. I know we are looking at trends, but this is just something i have noticed.

    • Matt says:

      That has been my observation as well, they are wrong the overwhelming majority of the time.

      • BubbaG says:

        This in example is why CB is less likely to call threat modes as in the past. I think last year is the first year since he had any form of blog where there was not really a threat mode. CB knew the models were bait and did not bite. CB simply posts about the models. but points out not a forecast.

        Ironically this winter could be the threat modes we would not want to have.

  11. Jimbo says:

    That model looks like the same old tired pattern from the last few years. Couple days dry and cold followed by a warm up and rain then repeat again.

  12. Mike S says:

    It will be interesting to see if this SW to NE division between Arctic cold and SE Ridge will play out through Christmas. I would argue for a flatter almost W-E division, which would unfortunately introduce higher ice chances for our region preceded by lots of rain.

  13. Troy says:

    I’m dreaming of a soggy Christmas! The last 2 GFS runs are actually showing something we can all believe for a change (and lets face it, when it comes to rain, its usually fairly accurate). Potentially flooding rains for the southern half of the state before and after Christmas and potential ice for upper for far northern counties. As usual, the SE Ridge is going to win and we can take that to the bank.

  14. C in BG says:

    The SE ridge always wins.

  15. Jimmie says:

    Hopefully those nasty-looking pinks and purples stay north of the Ohio River.

  16. Cold Rain says:

    You would think with a stout EPO and the MJO going into a favorable position colder air would be more South East..Maybe modeling has this wrong we all know the Euro like’s to hang energy back into the SW..But taking that bias into account we still will probably have some sort of a SE ridge..How strong is anybody’s guess at the moment..

  17. Andy Rose says:

    While temps are cold the winds have been a no show in my backyard.

  18. Schroeder says:

    That high pressure in the Atlantic ( Bermuda High ) is always there. This past summer, this high’s outer rim was the tract for the hurricanes. If this high moves into the southeastern part of the country, it will push the trough west. The question is how far west ? At this time and at this particular date no one knows.

  19. Schroeder says:

    Something better change soon for the wetter. Folks, we could be in for a drought if widespread precipitation doesn’t show within the next two months.

  20. Cold Rain says:

    Yet another solution from the GFS..Complex situation for the model at this range..Too many moving parts..At least on this run the SER got beat down some..So maybe that will be a trend..

  21. Jimbo says:

    Looks like most of the forecasters and weather blogs on the internet are abandoning the cold for our area for the next couple weeks. Probably a warm/wet not a windy/white Christmas.

    • Cold Rain says:

      Way to early in my opinion to abandon..Probably a week before models get an idea..Looking more and more to me though that someone is going to get ice..Where is the next question..Hope i’m wrong.

  22. BengalFan says:

    The pattern? this past weeks pattern was supposed to be several clipper systems bringing some light snow, then looked interesting for friday..but really never panned out! I will say it was windy!
    The Pattern? for the next week going into christmas…winter weather potential? I believe we are trying to say the small probability of snow could happen. Large probability 45-50 degree rain could happen.
    Majority on here want it to snow! But models are for dreamers (and to some extent when I read Chris thoughts, it puts snowflakes in my eyes)…..reality we don’t have alot of white christmas….so I would bet with math and say pattern is only ACTIVE for some wind, cool rain.

    • Schroeder says:

      That’s what some would call pure speculation.

      • BengalFan says:

        It wasn’t speculation about this past week didn’t turn our to be all these clippers!
        It’s my opinion as a arm chair quarterback to see the models and trends would seem to me it’s pointing more to rain.
        Yes weather forecast is a science built on math calculations…but also is a Speculation of what may happen. I will say that Chris is the best out here for letting us know the potential!!!!

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