It’s A Busy Pattern For The Holidays

Good Friday, folks. It’s another cold day taking shape across the bluegrass state, with a half and half weekend set to follow. This kicks off a very busy weather pattern, likely taking us through the upcoming holiday season. From Christmas to New Years, some problems are showing up.

Let’s begin with the cold of today. Mostly cloudy skies will be noted, with some rays of sun and a passing flurry possible. Highs are generally in the 30s, but gusty winds will make it feel colder.

Speaking of gusty winds, those winds will kick up on Saturday, spiking temps into the upper 40s to around 50 for many areas. Clouds will increase during the afternoon, with chilly showers scooting in here for Sunday. This is not a big rainfall by any means, as the system weakens…

Temps actually bounce up as that rolls past us by Monday, with another shower maker coming in by Tuesday. That will be followed by colder air…

After that goes by, winds turn southwesterly on Thursday and that will boost our temps to near 60 degrees. That will be ahead of a big time cold front marching our way one week from today.

The GFS has done a 180 from recent runs and shows this front moving through on Friday, with rain changing to a wintry mix…

The GFS then just overwhelms the pattern with cold air, basically killing any storm after that. It does show a light snow maker on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day…

I’ve been warning you on just how extreme these flips on the operational models would be. The above run of the GFS shows that very well. For the record, I do not think that run is correct in showing no storm system.

The Canadian model brings our Friday front through, then has a wave of low pressure bringing rain and snow behind it on Saturday, with a larger storm lurking to our southwest by Christmas Eve…

The new European Model continues to offer a totally different solution than the run before it. The “king of models” is showing ZERO continuity from run to run.

With the GFS going to the extreme cold and having no significant winter weather maker with the current run. I decided to look at the individual GFS Ensemble members to see what they offer up. Most of them have the late Christmas weekend storm system, but vary greatly on where the winter weather shows up…

If we expand that out through the rest of Christmas week, we find additional winter threats showing up on the Ensembles…

What’s my take on all this? The exact same as I’ve been telling you every single day this week. The models are all going to struggle and give you wild solutions from run to run. That’s what happens when you have a rather extreme setup across North America. All precipitation options are on the table for Christmas weekend into early Christmas week.  I can’t tell you if it you will have rain, snow, ice or a combo of the three from this far out. That’s about all I can say at the moment.

I will have additional updates later today, so check back. Have a great Friday and take care.


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29 Responses to It’s A Busy Pattern For The Holidays

  1. Machell says:

    Go to sleep Chris Bailey.
    Ha ha

  2. Bernard P. Fife says:

    DTE!!!! Don’t trust the ensambles. With that said Thelma Lou’s white Christmas chance today 4.8%

  3. feederband says:

    Blowtorch next week. meh

  4. Rodger in Dodger says:

    Never buy into winter models more than a few days out. A week ago, we were going to have arctic blast after blast and now 60 next week. Wake Rodger up when the snow flies. Rodger in Dodger

  5. winter lover says:

    We finally get moisture from the south but no cold air to play with. It’s funny how mother nature play with us. Oh well maybe Christmas weekend santa will give us a gift a white Christmas. But I wouldn’t bet it on it

  6. Schroeder says:

    Thanks Chris for all your hard work, it is very much appreciated and I look forward to all your weather updates through out each day. After looking at all my booked marked weather sites, the one that gives me more of an accurate look is the water vapor loop. It has been consistence with our current weather pattern. I notice this morning’s loop displayed the merging subtropical jet stream to our southwest and moving east towards the Atlantic Ocean. The Bermuda high is well out into the Atlantic, and it seems to be making a slow westward movement towards the southeast US. On the polar side, moderated cold air continues to filter into the central US, with the coldest air way to our northeast ( I got these temperatures off the Ventusky site. ) Also notice on the Ventusky site that the very cold air is being filtered into Europe and Asia by a large high pressure just north of Siberia. This may be the reason we have had such an uneventful winter ? Well that about it for this weather person. Sorry, everyone for going on so long. Have a great day.

  7. Cold Rain says:

    Right on Cue..Early morning GFS another 360..Back to rain,snow,sleet,ice..Keeps getting pushed back in time though..Might as well flip a coin..Hope it’s not cold and dry..Worst weather there is..

    • bgbecky says:

      cold, dry and cloudy! like yesterday…my least favorite kind of winter day! If it’s going to be cold I want snow, or else SUN!

  8. Cold Rain says:

    For entertainment only..Caution,,view at own risk..From bone dry to this in 6 hours..We all know that’s not happening..Right?

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017121506/240/zr_acc.conus.png

  9. Russell says:

    Guess we’ll not be getting any good snows again this year

    • Prelude says:

      It’s only December 15th. There’s 3 months still to go. smh

    • Mike S says:

      If you’re into clipper snow events, you’re probably right. Otherwise, a more active sub jet and chunks of cold air is all that is needed for just one decent snow event this winter. Pattern much different than this time last year

    • TennMark says:

      As has been pointed out before, some of the biggest snows have come in March. Indeed, both Memphis and Nashville have received their biggest single storm totals in March (both cities nailed by the same storm) with 18 and 21 inches respectively.

      Also, who can forget the March 1993 blizzard?!

      Sure, next March could be a winter dud but as Prelude mentioned this whole winter season is still early.

  10. Matt says:

    Well, so much for the “clipper mania” setup we thought might deliver this week.. Other than the dusting that caused all the travel trouble last Saturday, it was pretty much a no show.

    • Mike S says:

      I do believe CB emphasized time and again that these clipper systems were not going to be a big deal this week, at least in terms of snowfall amounts. I think it was more about the cold and wind we were bombarded with instead of the paltry moisture content.

      • c-BIV says:

        He was bullish however on seeing our first snow days of the season.

        • Mike S says:

          I think his forecast merited our attention, since many area roadways were negatively impacted with only a couple of tenths of accumulation over the weekend in some spots. Timing of these clippers could have very well interfered with transportation to/from local school systems. If he did not make this call, people on this forum would likely have been upset about that, finding additional reasons for voicing discontent.

  11. C in BG says:

    The weather around Christmas might turn out not being very nICE.

  12. SpaceGhost says:

    This front-loaded winter is kicking our butts!

  13. Schroeder says:

    Some of the largest snow events that I’ve seen were in March, and some of those snowstorms had thunder snow, which is rare. The largest snowstorm in March that I was lucky to see was in 1960 in Indiana where I grew up. Almost three feet of snow fell in two days and the temperature fell to minus 12 degrees. we were out of school for more than a week.

  14. MarkS says:

    Potential, potential, potential…….ohhhh, just a bit outside!!! Bob Uecker sums up Kentucky winters haha

  15. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. I like the THOUGHTS on what you see coming down the pike. I would like to see snow and I feel like we will at some point. Would I like it for Christmas? Yes! But as long as we can have cold weather and even some flakes ( but NO ICE!!) I will take it! Hapoy Friday everyone!

  16. Jimbo says:

    Has anyone else noticed just how bad these models are at predicting snow/cold. I guess if they keep predicting it, they will eventually get it right. Kinda like a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then. I know one thing if they predict 50’s and rain for us…..bank on it.

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