Friday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. Just a quick update to focus on the potential for winter weather as we head into Christmas weekend.

My thoughts continue to be the same as when I put them out on this map from Monday…

The potential is there for winter weather for much of our region, as arctic air collides with mild air across the southeast. Given the extreme nature of the setup, the operational models are struggling to get a grasp on the evolution of this.

After last night’s cold and dry run, the GFS is back to showing the potential for significant winter weather…

The 6z run of the GFS was much more expansive with the frozen precipitation and looked a lot like the area I outlined in my map…

The Canadian Model is also flipping from run to run, but it continues to show the potential…

Again, each and every run will look different from the run before it. That’s the nature of forecasting a pattern from a week away, and one that has this much of a temperature gradient showing up.

I’m going to keep saying the same exact thing: We have the potential for all modes of precipitation Christmas weekend into Christmas week. From rain to snow to ice to a combo of the three, everything is on the table. To quote Forrest Gump…

I will have another update this evening. Make it a great Friday and take care.

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15 Responses to Friday Afternoon Update

  1. JJTeach says:

    Thank you for the reminder Chris about not getting caught up in each individual model run. It’s hard for a winter lover like myself to do though! 🙂 Constantly cheering for the runs that show the pretty blue colors all across central KY!

  2. Mark says:

    This situation reminds me of an ancient Chines proverb: Do not trust any model run outside of 24 hours, and even then, hold on to your skepticism.

  3. Mark says:

    This situation reminds me of an ancient Chines proverb: Do not trust any model run outside of 24 hours, and even then, hold on to your skepticism.

  4. C in BG says:
    The new Euro went hog wild on the storm for next weekend.
    Probably will change next run so frame it.

  5. Schroeder says:

    Eventually all computer models will agree on one weather event. My guess it will be next Thursday or Friday. It’s a long wait for us wanting a White Christmas.

  6. Terry says:

    I want snow but will settled for rain at this point as I am growing very tired of grey, dry, boring weather….it is like a cold version of South CA weather since late October.

    • Cold Rain says:

      May get rain but in the frozen type if the Euro is right..Know its a long ways and will change but the models have been keen on someone getting a bad ice storm..Euro showing a 24 hour ice event with 1-2 qpf in southern and SE Ky..Thank god it’s still a ways out there..

      • Terry says:

        Yeah, I am in Harlan and it has been several years since we have had much ice….and I am fine with that! I love snow but ice can stay away. The last big snow in 2015 mixed in with a lot of sleet and freezing rain but no major ice accumulated, thankfully. Still, wet snow can do damage as the roof of Dollar General and some other structures collapsed due to pile up that year!

  7. msd87 says:

    The pattern looks pretty bad – I seriously hope we don’t have a crippling ice storm like in the 2014-2015 winter in east TN. But the setup looks similar. That storm cut power for a long time, especially along the plateau.

  8. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Love watching the blog and how the models change. Maybe that’s to keep us humble, or on the edge of our seats, or just pure fun! But it is fun to see them all change so drastically.

  9. BengalFan says:

    I will day this…it seems to me the last time chris put a map out with a huge circle like this one…was when we got 14 inches(I believe in 2014)

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