Friday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. With a well behaved half and half weather weekend ahead of us, we are focusing on the Christmas weekend forecast and the potential for some winter weather.

Look, every single computer model run is going to change from run to run. That change may be quite dramatic, so do NOT get attached to any one solution. It doesn’t matter if it shows snow, ice, rain or absolutely nothing.

Still, it’s interesting to look at the various computer model outputs, if only for entertainment purposes. The European Model is all over the place, with the latest run being NSFW for winter lovers…

That run has a healthy swath of snow…

And ice…

The GFS also changes from run to run. It’s trying to show what the European is showing, but has more gaps between systems…

The one disenable trend on all the models is for a colder solution with less of a southeast ridge. Even the CFS is picking up on this. Check out the 5 day temperature anomalies in Celsius…

The GFS Ensembles also show a very cold look that continues through the rest of the month…

The same model isn’t shy about the winter weather potential during the same time…

 

One thing is for sure, this is going to be a very fun period of tracking the trends. We will see the latest trends with my overnight update. Make it a good one and take care.


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14 Responses to Friday Evening Update

  1. which way is the wind blowing says:

    8 days out is it possible?

    • BubbaG says:

      Well….. Placing bets on this being the mix (as stands now). Total mix estimate:

      Rain = 45%
      Ice = 40%
      Snow = 15%

      That’s the cynical view. Optimistic view is take 5% each from ice and rain and give 10% more to snow.

  2. JJTeach says:

    My emotions are going to be drug on the floor like a dog chew toy over the next several days with these model runs. I may have to be put on some anti-depressants to deal with it all! Lol
    Seriously….

  3. Cold Rain says:

    You know us weenies..We love the clown maps..

  4. Cold Rain says:

    What’s the NSFW stand for..No snow for weenies..

  5. Linda says:

    I would love a winter wonderland for the Christmas holiday maybe it would make it feel more like Christmas

  6. Troy says:

    Rarely do any of these models have any credibility more than 2 days out and some no credibility 6 hours out when it comes to snow, however that ice looks a bit worrisome. Ice and rain are the 2 things software usually seems to grasp.

  7. Joseph Beeler says:

    Please no ice! I’ll take a cold rain in the 40’s over ice!

  8. Prelude says:

    New run of the GFS lay’s a complete smack down of snow for all of Kentucky take a pic and frame it!!

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