Saturday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. It’s a gorgeous day across the bluegrass state, but chilly showers are set to move in for Sunday. This sets off a very active pattern, leading to the potential for a widespread winter weather event across much of the country for Christmas weekend.

Last Monday, I put together a map to show the potential pattern I was seeing two weeks in advance…

Since then, the computer forecast models have been going back and forth on how to handle the pattern. Now that we are a week away, the GFS is trying to show a little consistency in the overall look of the setup. It continues to press a strong cold front through here on Friday, then slowing it down to our south and east with waves of low pressure working along it. With such a strong temperature gradient present across the country, the possibility is there for a ton of moisture to develop.

The new GFS continues to be all about that significant winter weather threat setting up right on top of us Christmas weekend into Christmas week…

Here’s the snow forecast from that run of the GFS…

The ice forecast…

None of the above maps are a forecast from me, I’m simply giving you a look at what the models are showing. Please keep that in mind. I continue to maintain that all modes of precipitation are possible during this time, but it’s too early for anyone to get more specific than that. Your Christmas could be as white as it is wet or vice versa. There are a lot of variables at play, and we are still a few days away from having a better handle on how this all plays out.

By the way… the GFS unleashes the frozen tundra behind that mess…

The Canadian model continues to rain on your White Christmas parade…

Considering how that model is taking a weak low directly into a 1045mb arctic high, I’m gonna say it’s having some issues.

Trust no single model run for the next several days… It doesn’t matter what it shows for your backyard. I’m still going with my map I put out on Monday. Every precipitation option is on the table.

My evening update may be much later than normal, but I will try to get it on. Enjoy the day and take care.

This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

57 Responses to Saturday Afternoon Update

  1. danny haley says:

    i hope its stays rain chris.i dont like ice or snow.its hard to travle and be active in ice and snow.rian you can stay acitive in.

  2. danny haley says:

    travel i mean.sorry about the spelling chris.

  3. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris

  4. Nasdaq says:

    00z Euro had the snow almost entirely missing KY, and shutting down east tn. Will be interesting to see if the 12z, brings the snow back north, or keeps it south.

  5. Ecmwf says:

    Regardless of the outcome it is nice to have an interesting setup to track. That is half the fun.

  6. Troy says:

    While I am still hopeful of even seeing a dusting of snow for Christmas, my bets always lie with rain and maybe an ice mix. My feeling is that if anyone sees a white Christmas it will be those of you in the upper central or northern counties in KY or those in TN. This has been the overwhelming trend for my area…always a miss to the north or to the south 95% of the time.

  7. Rodger in Dodger says:

    Rodger would LOVE to see that GFS come to fruition! Alas, it’s a week away! Rodger in Dodger

  8. which way is the wind blowing says:

    I am going with backside festive flakes.
    GFS every year plays the same game.
    If that model shows the snow line near the southern Tennessee border on monday then my optimism will grow.

  9. MarkS says:

    I wonder where ol Jim B is, and his yawn meter? LoL….dude, yawned all last winter.

  10. Cold Rain says:

    Looked like the Euro has a apps’t think i’ll look at another model until next week..

    • Ecmwf says:

      Euro sends a lot of moisture through here a few days before Christmas. All rain and skirts the state with light snow Christmas Day

      • BubbaG says:

        Will happily take that over mainly ice…. Folks here don’t think if ice or snow, it will be snow? This system with frozen precipitation has mainly ice with a topping of snow written all over it. We want cold rain.

  11. Mike S says:

    I’ll start seriously considering models like the Euro at 6-7 days out but know that this storm will provide lots of plot twists leading to a cliff hanging ending, either with no cliff at all or my power will go out and there’s my answer.

    • c-BIV says:

      I remember winter storm Christmas Eve 2004 all too well. I was one of the stranded on I-65 between Seymour and Columbus, IN coming from Louisville. The heavy amounts of precip that came up from the gulf and tapped into the cold air was just crazy!

      • Mike says:

        I remember snow on Christmas of 2003 (in Richmond) but not 2004. Must have stayed on the other side of the river… Actually – since We moved here in 2004 I have never seen snow in the air or on the ground on Christmas and very little in December at all.

        Here’s hoping!

      • Schroeder says:

        I remember the snowstorm of 2004. At that time I was living in north Vanderburgh county near Evansville, Indiana. The event was all snow, which started on the 23rd of December. At the end of the storm, 22 inches of snow had fallen at Dress Regional Airport for the official total. A beautiful White Christmas that I will never forget.

        • c-BIV says:

          I was on NE side of Louisville and we got an inch of ice, followed by 5″ of sleet, and then topped off with 8″ of snow. You know how hard it has to sleet to accumulate 5″? Then I crossed the Ohio river and there were crazy 5 foot plus snow drifts on side of the highway. I know Seymour ended up with aeound 30″ of snow and Evansville got around 22 to 23 inches. I-64 was shut down for days. Cars were stranded everywhere, because the bottom dropped our from the arctic right after this. Hundreds of thousands had no power on Christmas day.

          • Schroeder says:

            With that 2004 snowstorm that was so unusual it was totally gone melted by New Years Day 2005. You would think that in January the snow on the ground would have lasted longer.

  12. MarkS says:

    Calling Jim B?? Where are you Jim B???

  13. Schroeder says:

    Thanks Chris for your continuing weather updates.

  14. Bjenks says:

    Being optimistic we are overdue for a White Christmas and a over achieving snow storm. I like the potential, but won’t get excited or go by my ton of salt until mid week and the models all come to agreement.

    Thanks CB for all you do. It looks like you may have a busy couple weeks.

  15. Schroeder says:

    I don’t think that Tayor, county Kentucky ever had a real White Christmas. My definition of a real White Christmas is snow accumulations of 8 to 12 inches on the ground on Christmas Morning. I can’t find anything on the internet on snowfall records in Campbellsville, Kentucky ?

  16. 3789N8436W says:

    Hoooo-eeee! Take your seat folks…..we’re going to have a wonderful show. Ups, Downs and All Arounds! Something for everyone and for many some real surprises…..

  17. Mark says:

    GFS just totally went warm and just plain rain for Dec 23rd on 18z run.

  18. Nasdaq says:

    18z GFS comes in with drastic changes.

  19. Ecmwf says:

    If you put together the GFS last 6 runs you would see temps from 15-60 degrees forecasted for Christmas Day

  20. Mark says:

    The models will flip flop for days until about a day away.

  21. Nasdaq says:

    Really just all comes down to Ridge, NO Ridge or Super mega ridge, I’m ride or die Euro

  22. C in BG says:

    The new GFS overplays the SE ridge. I think it will end up being more minor than what the models are saying.

    • Mark says:

      So you think the SE Ridge will dominate again and this will be a rain event mainly for Kentucky and SW Ohio? I’m in Cincinnati and still waiting on a big Snowstorm finally again!

  23. Prelude says:

    18z that’s not a believable run in my opinion 18z gfs run has northern Louisiana and central Arkansas getting close to two feet of rain. I’m not buying that one bit.

    • Troy says:

      Am I correct in remembering someone (maybe even Chris) saying sometime back that the 06Z and 18Z GFS were control runs or something like that and were never accurate?..not that the 00Z and 12Z GFS is any better. lol

  24. BubbaG says:

    Frozen stuff would probably be mainly ice.. happy thoughts for cold rain instead.

  25. Cold Rain says:

    There’s more at play than the SE ridge..I know it’s part of the equation..You got to look at the piece of energy coming out of Baja and then the cold front coming through..Model’s show different solution’s with the SW ejecting in one piece or a strung out mess and then the timing of the cold front..I may be wrong but this is my understanding of what the model’s are having a hard time with..I wish Chris would go into further detail’s of what to look for in these set ups for snow in our region..

  26. Crystal In Pikeville says:

    It seems like the warm air that gets pulled up always wins and cold rain is the outcome but I will take that over ice!! As the song says I am”dreaming” of a white christmas here is hoping your dreams are white!! Why is it the models have to wait a day or so out to be accurate and why can states to our south get snow and we can’t how do they keep from getting the warm air pulled up lIke ky?

  27. C in BG says:

    00z GFS continues the waffling. Now the snow is South/East of us. This is going to be a long week. haha.

  28. Prelude says:

    And now the 00z gfs run is overwhelming the pattern with big time cold.

  29. Nasdaq says:

    00z GFS shows a good hit for SE/East KY, East TN, As we know what actually happens will be no where near that. But we can all dream, cant we?

  30. Schroeder says:

    With all these confusing weather models, my advice is simple WAIT AND SEE !!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *