Wrapping Up The Weekend

Good evening, folks. Our half and half weekend is drawing to a close with a lot of ugly out there. As we look ahead to the next week and change, there’s a lot more ugly on the way. This all takes us up to a very complicated forecast for our Christmas weekend.

There are some complications before that, and they may have implications on how all that plays out. Confused? Me too.

Low clouds will spit our a few showers over the next few days, but a much stronger system shows up by Wednesday. The European Model has been all over this for a while, but the other models have been hesitant to bring this wet weather maker into Kentucky.

The European Model shows heavy rains across the southern half of the state on Wednesday…

The NAM has been similar in recent runs…

The GFS wants no part of bringing rain into Kentucky…

The GFS Ensembles don’t even agree with the operational GFS, instead, they look more like the European and NAM for Wednesday…

I’m showing all this because, even in the shorter term, we are finding the models having a tough go at figuring out what to do. If we can’t get them to agree on the Wednesday system, how on earth do we expect them to figure out Christmas weekend and Christmas week? The answer to that is… I don’t.

That’s why you are getting zero forecast flipping and flopping from me, because every single run of every single model looks drastically different from the run before.

For fun, here’s the latest GFS…

That looks exactly ZERO like the run from 6 hours earlier, which looked ZERO like the run 6 hours prior to that.

I like to look at every available piece of model guidance for any forecast, not just in the winter. Sometimes the more obscure models can offer some trends or lend support for other models. One of the models I look at is the JMA. Christmas Day is just now within the window of the model, and it shows a major arctic high invading the country, with a wave of low pressure riding up the eastern slopes of the Appalachian Mountains…

You’re looking at barometric pressure and not temps on that map.

I will keep with my original thoughts that are now a week old: Every mode of precipitation is on the table for Christmas weekend into early Christmas week. Rain, snow, ice or a combo of the three are all possible. Your Christmas may be wet or it may be white, or you may get both. It’s still way too early to tell.

I will have my normal update later tonight so check back. Have a great evening and take care.


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11 Responses to Wrapping Up The Weekend

  1. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Been a short weekend (worked yesterday) plus being sick for the past 5 days doesn’t help. I hope we get some good cold weather because we need it before the flu bug and virus germs take over like they did last year. Will be waiting and watching to see what happens the rest of the week and Christmas weekend. Have a good evening all.

  2. Lotsasnow says:

    By tommorrow I think Chris will be breaking the news to all of us that no storm will affect us for Christmas. It’s been fun tracking this phantom storm but reality is reality. I want snow but in no way are the conditions favorable in Kentucky. Possibly the interior northeast but even that’s a stretch. Mid 40s and sunny for Christmas day.

  3. Mike S says:

    I call it ‘The 12 Runs of Christmas’. Of course, they come in different verses with each set of 12.

  4. Bjenks says:

    Being Optimistic, because that is what this world needs, I say I love that we are even talking about the possibility of a White Christmas. As Mr. Schroeder told me earlier that he hates Xmas, as verbage for Christmas, I am one that hates all the pessimism about the models and Kentucky winters. We average about 12 inches of snow annually here in Louisville. Most of them snows are 1-2 2-4 inches that really don’t amount to anything, but a bunch of salt and non drivers that clog our streets. Let’s all try to be a little more optimistic for a change and just sit back and wait and see what happens. If it snows, great, if it rains oh well, at least we are all alive and kicking to enjoy Chris Bailey and Kentucky’s ever changing weather. I am still holding out hope of a White Xma—sorry, Christmas and look forward to ringing in a Cold and snowy New Year. By the way any winter weather is better than what’s we received last winter. Thanks CB and #thinksnow from the great JB

  5. MarkLex says:

    Chris – you forgot one option. It may be nothing too. Could be wet, could be white, could be ice, could be nothing.

  6. BubbaG says:

    All the models are bait until a few days out and even closer for snow. CB is just posting his thoughts here. The real main forecast is when he is on TV and can defer greatly to his thoughts here.

  7. Ryan says:

    I give up wanting snow on Christmas. It’s just disappointment every year.

  8. BengalFan says:

    Chris or someone else who can read the JMA map…I know he said the colors are barometric, but taken that map what would the Low bring?
    Who Dey

  9. Jimmie says:

    Heh. That model run has sleet as far south as Brownsville, TX. I bet that’s something they don’t see very often…

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