Good afternoon, everyone. It’s another dreary day in the bluegrass state, with low clouds and a few showers on the move. The action is about ready to pick up in a big way later this week, with all eyes on the potential winter weather threat for Christmas weekend and Christmas week.
Before we get to the weekend, we have to keep a close eye on the big rain maker impacting parts of the state on Wednesday. This system continues to trend wetter and colder as we get closer, with several models now indicating the potential for a mix or a brief switch to snow late in the day. The HI-RES NAM has this showing up across parts of eastern Kentucky…
The NAM is even printing out the potential for light accumulations in some areas. We shall see, but that’s a system increasing as we get closer. It can also put down an inch or more of rain across southern Kentucky.
The weekend setup continues to slowly evolve on the models. We get the first front to work in here Friday, with a wave of low pressure developing along it. Heavy rains are a good bet with mild temps on Friday. The cold air then presses in Friday night, with the potential for a switch to some snow or mix…
As the front slowly presses to our east, it becomes stationary. Exactly where this happens and exactly where waves of low pressure develop, will be the determining factors on our Christmas Eve and Day weather. All modes of precipitation are still on the table during this time.
The Canadian Model shows a possible healthy winter weather event around here, as it takes a wave of low pressure right up the east slopes of the Appalachian Mountains. Here’s the animation of both systems for the weekend…
The GFS has a similar thought, but is likely too flat with the wave of low pressure…
Knowing a thing or two about the GFS and it’s bias, watch for that system to become stronger, with more precipitation showing up on the cold side.
The current trend on the models continues to bode well for this week old map I made…
I’m going to ride that map until you guys are sick of it… If you aren’t already! 🙂
I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm and will have another update this evening.
Make it a good one and take care.
im sick of it already chris.
Looking possibly like mix mania and a slick mess.
I love that you’re holding true to that map Chris! Love it
JJ Teach you literally got to be the most enthusiastic giddy weather enthusiast I have come across. I believe every met on the I-64 corridor between Louisville to Lexington knows of who you are.
Thanks Chris for the updates. I really wish that these computer models would all come in agreement. I am afraid that this Christmas is not going to be what we want it to be, but there is more to Christmas than any weather event. I think everyone should relax and enjoy this most bless and very special day Christmas.
Thanks Chris. Just gets gooder and gooder! Just don’t want anyone stranded on the way to Grandmas! Guess that’s the mom and grandma in Me! Have s good afternoon everyone.
At the very least the operational models seem to be converging today on somewhat of a similar solution.
This event could be called Sir Mix-A-Lot.
I like big snows and I cannot lie!
Let’s hope for a decent snow for Christmas. Thank you Chris for the hard work you do on the blog. Many of us amateur meteorologists check your blog often each day.
Sorry for bashing you Canadian Model…..lol. Just yesterday I was saying how it always takes the lows North to the lakes and has been the only one of late with KY getting all rain. Now its has a Low going up the Apps. Everyone should Love that run. Doesn’t hurt that the European is showing the same. Going to get real interesting and as for now CB is Nailing it. Hang tough with that map Chris.
Now for us here in Louisville we need the low to run on the west side of the app not the east
Yes, we have seen the same Potential map…but I like that better than seeing the model waffles
Mmmm. Waffles.
Bengalfan, it’s about as waffle that your Bengals got beat by my Vikings. Let it snow, Let it snow!
Waffe???? We got PANCAKED!!
To me being a bengals fan and a snow lover is one in the same…I want the big wins…but mostly disappointed
I think everything is slowing coming together for a favorable pattern next week….will most in KY have a white Christmas, maybe/maybe not but to have the subtropical jet waking up and a large arcic air dome centering over the upper midwest, there is hope for more than one threat type of storm coming up. The pattern will favor app runners next week:)
Light white Christmas, but still some snow perhaps.
At this point hard to go against the Euro..Think it has a realistic outcome with a few corrections here and there..Ky is going to be in the bull’s eye..Unfortunately ice may be in play…How much snow/ice to be ironed out.. Anyway’s believe Chris’s map has a 99.9% of being right..You can tell he’s gaining confidence..
Well hello bloggers how is everyone. Business fixing to pick up so Rolo making his year debut!!! Love everyone. Hope all is well with the old school bloggers and the newbies. If you follow me on Facebook you know I’m giddy about a white Christmas and have been for awhile. Lewis Rolo Roberts send me a friend request. Think the cold trend with this system wed a sign of the XMAS and the front setting up shop just right for the low to thump central and especially east/se ky. Rain/iceetc quickly to snow Sunday nite. Then the big day as the low cranks up Se/east could really get serious as I think going be a STRONG LOW. now we got week to go , but I’m thinking 75 percent on my thoughts coming true. Hey week away the word snow and Christmas being mention gets me giddy!!!! Woooooo!!!
Rolllllloooooooo!
Rolooooo..Good to hear from you..How’s the Goat’s doing..After Christmas looks really interesting too..I still say someone is going to get an epic ice storm somewhere sometime..Pattern just looks right….Ohio valley or Tenn. valley….
You’re gonna change your mind as usual.
Please don’t call Christmas, ( Xmas ) it’s unchristian.
Guidance all over the place, imho I believe the euro and gfs will not cave totally to one another, but rather meet in the middle. Well at least thats what I want to believe, for my own snow loving reasons…lul