Good Tuesday, folks. We have an absolutely loaded weather pattern taking shape over the next few weeks and it all gets started on Wednesday. That’s when the first of 3 major systems impacts our region. After that, we will bookend our long Christmas weekend with impressive systems. One is super wet and the other is looking white.

Before we get to the weekend setup, let’s talk about the first system rolling in late tonight and Wednesday. The models continue to waffle just a bit on how far north the rain gets, and the potential for a touch of snow or a mix for some.

The NAM is super wet and very far north…

With a stronger system, the NAM is able to create some colder air on the northern edge of that rain shield. This run “thinks” some snow will fall…

Nope… I simply cannot see that happening to that degree. The GFS shows the potential for a few flakes in the northeast, but not much more…

Maybe some flakes will fly, but I’m not too excited about that.

The powerful cold front moving in on Friday is a different story. This front will have a strong wave of low pressure along it, bringing some wild weather into Friday night and early Saturday. As I mentioned several days ago, temps ahead of this can hit 60 on a STRONG southwesterly wind. Heavy rain is likely along and ahead of the front, and I’m increasingly concerned about the flood potential to start the weekend.

The GFS rainfall map for this first system is likely too far south and east with the heaviest totals…

The Canadian Model is farther west…

The European Model is also farther west. Here are the rain totals from the Wednesday system and the one coming in on Friday…

Now you can see my high water concerns.

The front moves through on Saturday, with the possibility of a switch to a mix or some light snow as temps drop 30 degrees from Friday. The front then stalls out just to our east into Christmas Eve, with waves of low pressure to develop along the boundary. The models are still struggling on how to handle this, but will likely trend stronger with the action as we get closer.

The European Model has the wave, with a healthy snow band showing up across our region…

The Canadian Model is similar with the entire setup. Here it is with the Friday rains and the Christmas snow threat…

The GFS is trying to get there, but is too far east with the low. Still, it produces a light snowfall for Christmas Eve and Day…

Now that the Friday system is trending wetter and deeper, it may very well be giving us a clue as to how the next system behaves.

That’s a lot of true arctic air coming into the country and into our region Christmas Day and beyond. We are likely to try and spawn another winter weather system a few days after Christmas.

The GFS Ensembles snowfall map shows the potential from Christmas Eve through the first few days of the New Year…

I warned you this was going to be an action packed pattern and it’s certainly looking the part. From the potential of flooding, to Christmas snow, to arctic cold, to additional snow threats… There is no rest for me in the near future.

I do hope you guys appreciate the amount of time and effort I have to put into giving you these massive updates three times a day. You guys are the reason I do it! 🙂

Speaking of updates… They will be coming your way later today. Have a great Tuesday and take care.