Good Wednesday, everyone. Rain is pushing into parts of the bluegrass state today, but this will mainly impact the southern half of the region. This is just a small taste of what’s on the way to start the upcoming Christmas weekend. We have a lot of rain and wind to start things out, but Old Man Winter is going try to close it out.
Let’s begin with today’s rain. It’s mainly across the southern half of the state, with just a shower or two getting north toward Interstate 64. Given the stark difference in weather, temps will likely be all over the place. Here’s regional radar…
Thursday’s weather looks great with temps in the 50s with a mix of sun and clouds. Then the fun begins.
That brings us to the weekend and we are now back to finding some changes amongst the forecast models on how to handle it all. The GFS continues to be very wet and stormy from Friday into Friday night, but it rushes the cold in quicker on Saturday…
The model is still the only one not making the Christmas Eve and Day system into something more than this…
The Canadian Model has really thrown a wrench into the weather world, trending back toward what we were seeing on the models several days ago. It’s now much colder from start to finish, bringing the bulk of the action with a winter storm late Saturday into early Sunday, with another shot of snow following that up Christmas Eve and Day…
The new European Model isn’t that far away from showing something similar. It has totally lost the strong low idea for Friday and presses the cold in quicker…
It’s not quite at the Canadian Level, but it’s actually not far away from showing something similar.
The model continues to maker a bigger deal of the Christmas Eve and Day system and still brings a swath of snow across Kentucky…
It’s interesting to note, the NAVY Model was the first to show a flatter solution for Friday, bundling the energy for more of a southern low on Saturday and Sunday, similar to what the Canadian is showing. The NAVY does not show precipitation types…
No options are off the table for the weekend, so let’s sit back and see what the model trends are today into Thursday. I suspect we may have a much better picture by tonight.
Once again…
😉
Every single model shows a pattern conducive for a true winter storm traversing the country later next week. This swings under the belly of a massive arctic air mass controlling the overall pattern in North America…
I will have the usual updates later today, so keep checking back. Make it a great Wednesday and take care.
Hat’s off to you Chris for all the hard work you have been putting into the blog during this complicated weather pattern evolving during the holiday week!
What surprised me a little with the current rainmaker was how unusually poor the models handled rain during this mild setup…usually are fairly spot on within the 24 to 48 hour period for a southern jet rainmaker only; however, the rain through this morning never really made it into KY and looks like the solution most had shown about 5 plus days ago but waffled incorrectly at the last minute yesterday and the night before showing a good rain for over half the state–makes for lower confidence this weekend and beyond! I only have 0.02in so far and am trying to figure out if a bird came by and ‘peed’ in the gage or if the sprinkles amounted to this…..(urinated for all on here that follow living outside the SE KY sticks) Ha!
Some good rain coming down at times in Nashville. But all the lightning at this time is much closer to the Gulf Coast.
Interesting that places in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama that had snow cover not long ago are today at a bit of a risk of severe wx! Mainly some isolated damaging winds.
t
Sorry been having trouble getting my post to show up. I was saying that Thelma Lou feels that with all the model troubles we shouldn’t be surprised at only a dusting. Maybe North & East will get the most, however much that may be.
The MAP is back. LOL. As much as I do not like or trust the Canadian model, I hope that run of it comes true. The GFS will come back around and they will all bring a healthy Low right up through the TN Valley to the Apps. Just can’t go any further North or it will be all rain for all of Ky. Going to be interesting to track over these next few days, I hope you have all your Christmas shopping done Chris, cause your gonna be busy.
Thanks Chris, In my 66 years of living in the Mid West and now in the Ohio River Valley, I have never seen such a mess of miss information. These computer models have been giving out one forecast then another and still we are left in the dark as to what will happen on Christmas Eve and Christmas day. I really believe that you will be the first to give us the correct forecast for Christmas. Everyone here appreciates all your hard work.
Thanks
You are entirely welcome Ralph. Merry Christmas.
Some festive flakes for Christmas Eve services and perhaps Christmas morning is about all we can hope for in Lexington. The systems just aren’t phasing properly.
As much as I would love a white Christmas, traveling will be easier without it.
More concerned about the torrential rain Friday evening into Friday night.
Maybe we’ll get an “end of year” snow fall later in the week.
The GFS might be correct.
Let’s see what the euro is projecting this afternoon.
Why is it people are so negative that we’re not getting snow when there’s a possibility. Some day guys your going to eat your words and that might be this weekend. Have a great day!
There is chance and I not given up but we have to accept the term historical reality.
Just give up on the models and use the Force, Chris. The closer we get, the less it seems. Just as almost every model for snow. We’ll take our possible festive flakes and treat the current “one week out” models with the same grain of salt.
Mother-nature, I triple-dog dare you to drop a good foot or so of snow on Kentucky for Christmas Day! Come on, is that all you got?!
Hahaha
Keep in mind that the GFS is notorious for predicting storms in its 7-10-day outlook, losing those storms at 4-5 days out and then re-discovering them. We’re into that 4-5 day window. Let’s see what it says on Thursday.
Just hope the NW shift doesn’t kick in with next week’s system. Let’s keep those orange and pink colors out of KY.
CB would be more specific if he had confidence in this. We might get some festive flakes, but might be too warm for anything beyond that. The cold likely will be too late to the party for our area.
Choo-Choo!
Keep on throwing out false hype accusations, bucko.
Well that’s a interesting run of the 12z Canadian model for the upcoming weekend storm especially folks that border the Ohio River.
I’m.2 miles from the river here in green up lol
Team #FestiveFlakes!!!