Good afternoon, folks. It’s another dreary day for many of us across the bluegrass state, with all eyes on a changing setup for the Christmas Weekend ahead of us.
In the short-term, rain continues to fall across the southern third of the state, with just a shower chance in the north…
The weekend setup continues to be in flux, with the potential for some big changes on the models over the next 24 hours or so. The overall theme of the weekend continues to be pretty consistent on the Canadian Model. It continues to show a colder system from late Friday into Saturday…
And continues to show a healthy system rolling along the front for Christmas Eve and Day…
If we take that run of the Canadian Model verbatim, it would show a significant snow for areas near the Ohio River and into northern Kentucky. It would then bring a 1″-3″ swath of snow for many on Christmas Eve and Day…
That’s not a forecast, but it’s me talking about what that particular model run shows.
The NAM only goes through early Saturday evening, but it’s also trending colder with the first system, bringing a similar snow swath as the Canadian…
If we look at the snowfall forecasts from the individual members of the GFS Ensembles, we find several of them with a similar snow swath now showing up. Here’s the look on them through Christmas…
The operational run of the GFS is trending colder and farther east with our Friday-Saturday system, but continues t show nothing for Christmas Eve and Day.
The 6z GFS was closest to the Canadian solution…
Here’s your brief summary of my thoughts on all this:
- Model changes continue to be likely through tonight and Thursday.
- Heavy rain continues to be likely on Friday into Friday evening.
- Watch for the potential for a trend toward colder and farther east with this initial system to start the weekend. That could bring that snow swath a little farther south and east. Close call.
- I still like the wave showing up for Christmas Eve and Day, bringing the potential for some snow to our region.
The longer range continues to look very active with additional systems scooting underneath the arctic air setting in across the country.
This is a fun look showing up on the individual runs of the GFS Ensembles into the first few days of the new year…
I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm and will likely put together an “odds” map. I will also throw you guys another update this evening.
Make it a wonderful rest of your day and take care.
CB, two winters ago you probably would have fallen for the model bait, but you have not now for the second winter in a row. We used to get a few Threat Modes from the bait. CB getting older and wiser 🙂
Thanks Chris, Looks like you are honing in on the upcoming Christmas Weekend forecast. It looks colder and snowier than it did earlier this morning. Maybe we will have snow on the ground for Christmas.
Mr. Hamlin, I am not falsely accusing anyone of hype. I am genuinely hyped about our chances. Why does everyone have to take what people say and twist it into something it’s not?
Amen SHAAK…..”just a bit outside” haha
Uh oh. There are two MarkS’s.
Choo-choo = train = hype train.
While I’m pretty confident temperatures will finish below normal for the month of December, surprisingly it won’t be by much. Most NWS offices in Kentucky are above normal for the month right now, even Jackson.
I blame it on weak blocking near Greenland, which is expected to continue. So, while it will be cold here (after all, it is meteorological winter), it could be even colder if the Greenland blocking strengthens. Otherwise, shots of cold air will be tempered by periodic bouts of moderating temperatures.
MikeS, would you please post the link on the above. Thank you in advance.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html
http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=lmk
Thanks MikeS, Looks like a yo yo winter ? Isn’t that what we usually get anyway? I am confident we will have a White Christmas over most of the state. The AO and the NAO are positive now, but they change quite offten, especially in February and March.
Schroeder, you were confident a few days back Christmas would be warm and dry!?!
Yes, that is correct. I will not argue that. As everyone knows on this blog that I’am just versing my opinion. I admit that a lot of it is BS. I’am not a meteorologist and never will be. I just like talking about the weather. Don’t take it so seriously.
Amen Schroeder
I respect your optimism Schroeder, however, my opinion is quite the opposite…I’m confident that most of the state will not have the elusive white Christmas (nor even festive flakes for that matter). It’s just not in the cards.
On top of weak blocking, we literally have almost no snowpack to our NW; thus, the Arctic air keep modifying when it reaches us. Although much colder than last year, it really hasn’t been impressive cold as only a couple of nights have slipped below 20 so far!
West Ky snow please please
If we had a clipper today we would of had a very good chance of a snowstorm. It takes a northern component to combined with a southern component to make a well defined storm.
SMH
Good point Schroeder
Thank you very much. I don’t get many complements on my post.
That’s your own fault.
Prelude back off, if you don’t like his opinion don’t read his comments.
Winter lover, that comment about opinions goes both ways. Don’t read my comments and you should be content.
I always see this Prelude dude bully people here.. its comical. lol
Stating facts, last time I checked is not bullying.
Anyone that has another opinion you make fun of.. I see it all the time.. You comment on just about every post… lol
wrong!!$
Thanks Chris. Always like the possibility of snow, especially around the Christmas holiday. So I am hopeful. I think a little Christmas snow brings out the ‘kid’ in all of us, kind of magical! Have a great afternoon everyone.
Nice way of putting it Coffeelady. Snow is liked by everyone because it is spiritual as well as beautiful.
Chris tweeted that new European Model shows a healthy snow event. Link anyone? Thanks for the hard work Chris!
Schroeder you have been much better as of late and its definitely OK to have an opinion….keep doing what you’re doing
I second!
Putting a “odds” map…hey that’s what I asked for about 2 days ago…I would love to see it (see what chris thinks..not what models thinks)
GFS is a friend when shows the snow and an enemy when loses it. The fair weathered model.
Hated and loved lol must be a tough life
Prelude, your fine, I don’t mind anymore if you have a negative response to my comments on the weather. The information you post I fined very professional, especially when you are discussing all the various model runs. Something I don’t understand, but beginning to learn thanks to you and Chris Bailey.