Good Thursday, everyone. We are just about to the big Christmas weekend and it’s looking more and more like Mother Nature and Old Man Winter are going to combine to cause travel problems. From a local high water threat to the potential for snow, the big weekend has it all. That includes an epic battle between the GFS and European Models.
In the short-term, temps are going to climb today as a warm front lifts to the north. While the day looks mainly nice, I can’t rule out some late day sprinkles or light showers…
A cold front works into the region on Friday and slows down. That’s when a wave of low pressure develops and works across the state, bringing very heavy rains through early Saturday. The potential is there for a general 1″-3″ rainfall for much of the state, with locally higher amounts.
The NAM is showing the hefty totals…
Cold air crashes in on Saturday, with the potential for a wintry mix of a switch to snow in the west and north. The NAM shows a decent swath over in the north late Saturday…
The European Model doesn’t get quite as cold as the NAM or GFS and keeps it all rain through Saturday. Look at the extensive rain amounts showing up…
Those numbers would be enough to cause high water issues to develop Friday night into Saturday. That’s something we are going to have to follow very closely.
Colder air continues to pour into the region behind the departing rains, setting up an amazing model battle between the European and GFS models for Christmas Eve and Day. The European has been steadfast in showing a swath of accumulating snows across our entire region, while the GFS refuses to show anything.
The European Model is a little more amped up than earlier runs…
Here’s the snow map from that particular run…
To see why the European Model is so much different than the GFS, just look at what’s going on at 500mb. Check out this potent upper level system aimed right into the Ohio Valley…
That’s a lot of lift on the nose of that system. The GFS is much flatter with that, and doesn’t dig it in very much. That’s why you only see a few flurries or a touch of light snow on the GFS…
It’s interesting to note, the individual members of the GFS Ensembles show much better snow chances than the GFS does…
The Canadian Model is more similar to the European Model, but gets the upper level system to dig just a littler farther north and east of us…
That’s a lighter brand of snow than what the European Model has, but the theme is similar.
Moral of the story, the option of Christmas Eve and Christmas morning snows is still very much alive. Let’s see what the models show later today, and if we end this model fight once and for all.
After this headache of a forecast comes later next week. The GFS is all rain and 60, the European Model is light snow with arctic cold keeping the storm track across the deep south, and the Canadian looks like this…
Make it stop!!! š
I will have updates later today, so check back. Have a great first day of winter and take care.
I’d like to see the snowfall forecast from that run of the Canadian! That would look pretty awesome for eastern my and pretty much all of ky.
http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017122100/222/sn10_acc.conus.png
Not gonna Happen..
Better map..
http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017122100/222/sn10_acc.us_ov.png
Freezing rain map also,,lol
http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017122100/222/zr_acc.us_ov.png
Hey Cold Rain..I will take the 2nd map please. But from all of those I follow on Twitter I am thinking lots of rain. I really hope mother nature proves them wrong.
Thanks for all the work keeping us posted CB. But im hoping for a white Christmas
My heart says Euro but my head says GFS. Based on our track record. I thought the cold was gonna stay awhile next week? Not 60 and rain. Say it ain’t so………..i think snow lovers are going to be disappointed again.
Jimbo,
No disappointment here, when you live in Kentucky you get used to the flips and flops and generally that means cold rain and or cold and dry.
Yeah….the brutal cold all of sudden doesn’t look to make much if any impact for KY or surrounding areas. We now have 40s and 50s for highs in southern KY…stinks. I think this is the worst model runs in over 20 years of tracking, terrible!
The Canadian model for next week looks like an old fashioned snowfall. One can always hope!
The rain that’s coming is going to suck the life out of any big snows that might happen in the near future.
It’s festive flakes or bust for xmas.
Even if the European model is correct we are going to need the low to over perform.
Yep, seems best case for most is a coating or festive flakes. Anything else is a set up for the usual model induced let down. Take the average of the models and that equals festive flakes.
Christmas not Xmas please.
Thelma Lou is happy that at least we won’t have temperatures approaching 70 this year on Christmas.
I think we will all will be surprised come Christmas morning with a major snowstorm.
Gonna have to lay off the eggnog this early Schroeder,,That would indeed me a Christmas miracle..
Think positive, better for your health, and so is wine. LOL
Chris, which of your models seem to predict snow accurately over the past four or five years?
NONE!
The Euro has been by far the most accurate of all models…however, even it is wrong more than 50% of the time more than 24 hours out (which tells you how bad the other models really are).
The average of the models tends to be the nearest to accurate, but that takes away the cherry picking of models that show the best chance for snow.
If these models can’t get a grip what the weather is going to do. Then it’s time to go back to the old fashion way that’s a black marker and weather board .I live in western,ky and remember watching as kid the legend Marcia Yocky on WFIE14 out of Evansville. She had a nose what the weather gonna be specially back in the late 70’s when we endure those harsh winters at the time.
Did I miss the arctic cold and multiple snow chances we were getting this month? Hope so, this spring feel is right up my alley.
Yep, December was supposed to be filled with chances and the result will be (if the weekend pans out) about one total inch of snow for most. Does not bode well for going forward in regards to outlooks of models. December from an outlook model standpoint has been a D-.
Kind of like the old dog that cried wolf way too many times!
Most of us on here are snow lovers and got spoiled with some good winter weather systems to track for a good 4 years straight. Now, we are in year 2 of nothing except false hope. “Potential” is my most hated word in the universe of winter weather. Until these systems start bringing most of us what we’d like to see, nobody is going to buy into anything that uses the word “potential” or “possible” anymore. I still think this is the best weather blog site going and will continue to follow CB. It’s not his fault that we are in a not so fun winter slump for the past 2 years.
Folks still like to cherry pick, none the less š
I watch Marcia Yocky all the time and enjoyed her hand drawn weather maps. I don’t know when she started her weather cast, late 1950’s ? Everyone in southwest Indiana watch her weather cast and she would never go out on a limb more than two or three days .When she forecast snowstorms everyone listen and I would say she was right 95% of the time. I remember her forecast for a snowstorm to occur on Monday and she said there would not be any school. Guess what she was 100% right on the mark. She was the one weather caster that got me interested in weather. The good old days.
Part of the reason is they were looking just a few days out and did not have all the models with data sensitivity issues. Now the culture is to hang hats on “a week out” and build disappointment levels until the models are closer, and forecast more likely solutions. Week out models typically equal worthless.
Hence why even talk about them!
It’s just like me getting on here every week and telling everybody there is a chance the Bengals are going to win next week..here’s how good they look…blah, blah
Winter Lover : We misspelled Marcia last name it’s spelled Yockey. If you want to see some of her weather cast, just google her name. She sure was one of a kind. She started in 1953.
Thanks Schroedor, yes she was!
The latest GFS finally blinked and shows some light snow on Christmas Eve. The model made the jump toward what the European Model has been showing. #kywx CB
Chris, just wanted to drop by the comments and say, thank you! I appreciate all of your hard work and keeping us all updated. Hope you and your family have a merry Christmas.
Rodger appreciates all that Mr Bailey does but Rodger’s going to be one disappointed puppy if we don’t get at least an inch of snow this month after all the “cold invasions and snow chances” posts we’ve seen predicted since late November. Sometimes the very conservative NWS approach is the best. Rodger in Dodger
Second that
3rd and im sure a bundle of hands going up past this post as well.
Notice…Chris said he was going to put a “odds” map out yesterday …but never did.
The odds are extremely high that computer models are always wrong for long range. But…..we snow lovers want to dream I guess.
Thanks CB. You have a tough job with all the misinformation that these models still give. Where is the artic blast that was going to dig in for this month? I’m not complaining that the models didn’t pan out. Lower heat bills for me..
Yes, lower heat bills I’ll go for that.
I do not understand why they can’t correct the GFS from always flopping all over the place. I’m sure there’s a reason, but it’s beyond my scope.
Sensitivity. Change one thing, something else goes amuck. Aggregate modeling is the best overall method. Anything else in general tends to be cherry picking.
In order of preference for next week: (1) GFS with its 60 w/ rain (2) Canadian model with its boatload of snow (3) Euro model with its cold and, well, cold.
What happened to the super cold air after this weekend? If the models can not outlook cold air, how can it be expected to forecast snow with any credibility?
CB being a met with the models is like an artist with broken brushes and a torn canvas.
Saw this on some mets AFD discussion somewhere..Can’t remember..Anyways here’s the quote..lol..
“For now, remember the plinko game and think
of it as you look at these solutions”
It was the Nashville NWS!!
That saying originated a few days back off the NWS Twitter page Iām thinking out of the Kansas City NWS office. Meteorologist John Belski in Louisville retweet on his Twitter page.
I read this blog because I know Chris is going to throw all the information out there..even if it doesn’t verify! If you love weather and maps, this is the blog for you!! I truly enjoy watching the progression of what the map show a week or so out and then see what actually verifies! I am just never optimistic when it comes to snow!!
On that note though, it really does seem that none of the weather models can accurately predict what is really going to happen! On Tuesday Chris’ post said that we have some sun out there today, but it rained/drizzled half the day in BG and never saw a lick of sun!! The models can’t seem to grasp whats going on even in the short term.
I LOVE this blog and will continue to read, because I LOVE weather. And that’s what brought me here to begin with!!
Thanks for all you do, Chris! I’m proud to be a ‘weather weenie’!! š Merry Christmas!!!
Charleston NWS doesn’t even have a flurry predicted from Sunday through Wednesday. And Joe Bastardi just said no Christmas snow south of I70. I really hope they are wrong. But it looks like it has all been eye candy yet again.
I’ll take the bubba rule for 100 Alex
33 degrees and above – moisture. (Rain)
32 degrees and below – no moisture. (A.k.a. backside flurries or snow shower)
Christmas snow would be great but…
Here’s my thing: I am going on a backpacking trip in the highlands of West Virginia (elevation 3900′ to 4200′ – 30 miles southwest of Snowshoe) in two weeks. Last year we had 40 degree rain. Hoping for cold and snow…
What are your thoughts?
I would say good to go on the snow.
The GFS has given up and continues to trend strongly toward the European Model. Christmas Eve and Christmas Morning snow showing up now on the GFS. #kywx CB
If that run of the Canadian Model were to play out we would have one heck of a snowstorm around New Years Eve here in the Pikeville area. I know the odds are low but one can dream lol.
I see the 12z GFS up to its usual tricks and blast Kentucky on December 29th with a 6-14 inch snowfall depending on what part of the state your in.