Good Thursday, everyone. We are just about to the big Christmas weekend and it’s looking more and more like Mother Nature and Old Man Winter are going to combine to cause travel problems. From a local high water threat to the potential for snow, the big weekend has it all. That includes an epic battle between the GFS and European Models.

In the short-term, temps are going to climb today as a warm front lifts to the north. While the day looks mainly nice, I can’t rule out some late day sprinkles or light showers…

A cold front works into the region on Friday and slows down. That’s when a wave of low pressure develops and works across the state, bringing very heavy rains through early Saturday. The potential is there for a general 1″-3″ rainfall for much of the state, with locally higher amounts.

The NAM is showing the hefty totals…

Cold air crashes in on Saturday, with the potential for a wintry mix of a switch to snow in the west and north. The NAM shows a decent swath over in the north late Saturday…

The European Model doesn’t get quite as cold as the NAM or GFS and keeps it all rain through Saturday. Look at the extensive rain amounts showing up…

Those numbers would be enough to cause high water issues to develop Friday night into Saturday. That’s something we are going to have to follow very closely.

Colder air continues to pour into the region behind the departing rains, setting up an amazing model battle between the European and GFS models for Christmas Eve and Day. The European has been steadfast in showing a swath of accumulating snows across our entire region, while the GFS refuses to show anything.

The European Model is a little more amped up than earlier runs…

Here’s the snow map from that particular run…

To see why the European Model is so much different than the GFS, just look at what’s going on at 500mb. Check out this potent upper level system aimed right into the Ohio Valley…

That’s a lot of lift on the nose of that system. The GFS is much flatter with that, and doesn’t dig it in very much. That’s why you only see a few flurries or a touch of light snow on the GFS…

It’s interesting to note, the individual members of the GFS Ensembles show much better snow chances than the GFS does…

The Canadian Model is more similar to the European Model, but gets the upper level system to dig just a littler farther north and east of us…

That’s a lighter brand of snow than what the European Model has, but the theme is similar.

Moral of the story, the option of Christmas Eve and Christmas morning snows is still very much alive. Let’s see what the models show later today, and if we end this model fight once and for all.

After this headache of a forecast comes later next week. The GFS is all rain and 60, the European Model is light snow with arctic cold keeping the storm track across the deep south, and the Canadian looks like this…

Make it stop!!! šŸ™‚

I will have updates later today, so check back. Have a great first day of winter and take care.