Good afternoon, folks. The GFS Model has totally caved to a similar solution to what the European Model has been saying for days: Light snow sweeps across the state Christmas Eve into Christmas Morning.
We will get to that in a moment, but we have some wild stuff coming before then.
Heavy rain moves in on Friday and carries us into the first half of Saturday. A general 1″-3″ of rain is likely for most of Kentucky, with locally higher amounts…
That can be enough to cause local high water issues Friday night and early Saturday. Let’s keep a very close eye on that.
As the cold air pushes in on Saturday, it may catch the rain shield, switching it to a period of mix and light snow in the north…
The Christmas Eve system has been on the Canadian and European Models for some time now. The GFS had this several days ago, then lost it entirely.
My earlier post showed the European Model at 500mb and the system digging right on top of us. The GFS is now showing the same thing…
That produces a tremendous amount of lift on the nose of that system, leading to precipitation breaking out. The GFS now looks a lot like the European Model at the surface…
That’s still likely playing catch up, but produces light accumulating snows for many…
Again, that may still get a little juicier over the next few days.
At the least, it appears we have light snow and flurries coming for Christmas Eve and Morning. We also have the chance to put snow on the ground during this same time. Ho Ho Ho!
There may be another disturbance zipping through here on Tuesday, bringing another light snow chance…
The models also continue to take turns offering up something like this by the end of next week…
I will update the Christmas Eve snow threat on WKYT-TV starting at 4. You will also get a fresh update on here later this evening.
Make it a good one and take care.
I’m just gonna wait and see what happens… should be interesting, as long as it’s not just plain ole rain…
Awesome!! Thanks for all you do Chris.
Hope for snow!
Thank you so much for your insight and dedication Chris. You’re the greatest!
I’m hoping for at least a 3″ snow for Christmas, but I’ll take what I can get.
Have a great day everyone!
I am still holding out for a major snowstorm on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
Only time will tell… bring on the snow!
Schroeder,
I like your style. Keeping my fingers crossed 🙂
I’m with Portland Weather Dude and Schroeder!
I’d like to wake up one morning and be snowed in for days 🙂
Thanks for your thoughts on my WV highlands backpacking trip coming up. Hoping for a winter adventure!
Dumb question: Tremendous lift……Why does lift cause precip?
Think of it like squeezing a sponge the more you squeeze the more moisture you get out of it.
I thought it is that the moisture is moving higher, so more falls as snow. Whatever the case, seems the Euro is backing off from that now.
Lift can force warm humid air m-a-s-s-e-s at low altitudes to rise. As this warm humid air goes up, it usually cools. Since cooler air is more dense and thus can’t hold as much moisture as warm air, precip such as rain or snow is often the result. There are many lift mechanisms including cold fronts (which can undercut then force warm air up), low pressure systems, orographic lifting (from terrain).
BTW, the only dumb question is the one not asked 😉 .
Folks, expecting more than festive flakes and a coating is probably setting up for disappointment.
I haven’t heard these words for awhile. (Winter Storm Warning)
True dat. Not sure the snow type are a good bet this winter. Other types later this winter though- fair bet.
One might need to go to Baton Rouge LA or Corpus Christi TX for more of those words 🙂 .
Yea looks that way.
Unless that low tracks further south, all we will be looking at will be festive flakes.
But we do have a fighters chance.
Looking brown for southern portions of KY.
I bet it never rains or snows at your house.
Thanks for your dedication, Chris!
As suspected, yesterday’s GFS forecast of nothing was just an artifact of it losing storms 4-5 days out.
That makes next week’s system interesting. GFS for whatever reason seems more accurate from 7-10 days out than from 4-5 days out. So if GFS sees next week as mild with rain…
Looks like a flooding rainstorm next week.
Next post will say snow not likely…..what a crazy ride. I’m going to predict it will be warm in July, with a chance of rain some days, that is a safe prediction haha
Only a crazy ride if you got on the train to begin with.