Good afternoon, everyone. Heavy rain continues to press into the region, setting the stage for the potential for local high water issues. The soggy setup will then turn a little snowy, just in time for Santa to arrive in the bluegrass state.
There’s nothing more to add to the heavy rain and flood threat. It’s a general 1″-3″ of rain, with locally higher amounts possible in the south and southeast. The best chance for high water comes tonight and early Saturday…
If you go back to just a few days ago, the models weren’t showing accumulating snow in the Ohio Valley, which is why we don’t just blindly follow models.
Another reason is the Christmas Eve light snow maker. This system has been all over the place on the models and even non-existent at times. I talked about how we would likely see the models trend a little stronger with a wave of low pressure and we find them doing just that.
Here’s the GFS…
That is now bringing a MUCH more expansive area of light snow across Kentucky…
This should bring light snow to most of the state… On Christmas Eve. That’s some nice timing by Old Man Winter and Santa! Light accumulations are possible, and I will have the often imitated First Call For Snowfall on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm.
If we look at the snowfall for just Christmas weekend, we find a good chunk of our region picking up on some snow…
That’s not a bad match from the map I put out nearly 2 weeks ago…
Additional winter weather threats are lurking just beyond Christmas. I also have sneaking suspicion we will have our first Winter Storm Threat in nearly 2 years.
I will update things again this evening. Have a good one and take care.
Here`s hoping for the WST…
Please Bring on the SNOW!!!
Thsnks Chris! See you later in the tube! Have a great Friday afternoon everyone.
I think it’s safe to say that we need to throw all computers away and just listen to Chris Bailey…
I just wanted some readers to feel better knowing that although a warmer than average second half of the winter could happen, it does not equate to no snow. I take you to winter of 1986/87 in Louisville.
December…boring, no measurable snow and below normal temps.
January…still boring, little bits of snow, nothing measurable and below normal temps.
February…Over 6″ monthly total and above normal temps.
March…well, this one is interesting. After 10 consecutive days in the 60’s and 70’s, peaking at 77 degrees on the 29th, by the next evening of the 30th, I recall as a young teen looking outside and up at my porch light, the flakes were fat and falling like rain. By the time I woke up the next morning, we had 9″ on the ground. A day later, though, most of the snow had melted, leaving in its wake broken tree limbs and collapsed car ports.
Oh, and March finished 0.1 degree above normal for temperatures. There you go. Over 15″ of snow for a warmer than average second half of winter.
So what you’re saying is there’s a chance!
That was 31 years ago anything in recent memory? Winter weather in the 1970’s, 1980’s, and even the 1990’s were a lot different than the winters were experiencing now. In my opinion winters now for the most part are not nearly as harsh, cold or snowy.
Totally agree.
Rodger agrees! Last winter was simply awful for snow lovers. Let’s hope whatever happens tween Christmas and New Year’s gives us a snow because it could get bleak after that. This is Rodger in Dodger!
Overall, 2015 was a pretty harsh winter. February and March both had top ten snowiest days for those months. February 2010 13.9″ top ten Louisville…March 2008 snowfall for month a top ten
February 2015 top ten cold month
Oh, don’t forget about Lexington’s 40+” for the 2014-2015 year.
Although Jackson has only been in the climatology record for the past 36 years, dating back to 1981, three of the top 5 snowiest years have been since 2009.
http://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=lmk
Use this and look at nowdata, research years past from the 70’s through today…tell me something significant about Lexington snow records. Do more research and you’ll be surprised at what you will find.
Hit the nail on the head Prelude and there was indeed a cutoff… Prior to the blizzard of 93′, snowfalls were regular. Generally speaking, we could expect 2 or 3 snowfalls of 4″+, and that was in East TN. Since that blizzard we are lucky to get 1 snowfall of more than a couple inches in most parts of KY per year.
Actually we got big snows up until 1998. Several big snows.
Still holding for a major snow event for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Merry Christmas everyone.
I am very suspicious that you could be a psychic but as Patrick Jane always said on The Mentalist there’s no such thing as a psychic so you must be a mentalist. One of my favorite shows that I missed terribly. Have a Merry Christmas and thank you for helping Santa and the weather bring snow
For anyone counting, it’s now been 675 since our last Winter Storm Warning! Could the streak be coming to a glorious end next weekend?
675 days
We will probably get them this winter, just not the snow type. Besides, a lot of folks got three record snows in one rolling year just prior to that. Tapped out all of our snow credits 😉
My wife on “The Hill” has plenty of firewood and is ready for the snow!
As I said earlier this week. 100% chance of a white New Year and for matter, we also have a 100% chance on Xmas as well.
Depends on location and ones twisted view of a white Christmas
Salt is white 😉
Just drove from Lexington to get Western Ky. Heavy rain at times but it was the fog that was really remarkable. 3:00 in the afternoon and patches of super dense fog. I was straining to see the tail lights in front of me.
Fog and rain is a messy combo driving.
We will get some decent snow within the next couple of weeks.