From Soggy To Snowy This Christmas Weekend

Good Saturday, everybody. Heavy rainfall continues across the state as we roll through the first half of our Saturday, and this may cause local high water issues. Once the heavy rain ends, the cold air takes control, with light snow waiting for our Christmas Eve.

There’s nothing more to be said about today’s rain, you know the drill…

Temps crash from northwest to southeast, and this may produce a bit of a mix in the north and far west. This doesn’t look like a big deal. at the moment.

As temps drop below freezing by Sunday morning, watch for some slick spots to develop on area roads.

This brings us to our light snow maker for Christmas Eve. The trend I said to watch for is taking place, with the models trending stronger with our wave of low pressure. That gives us a much broader swatch of snow to deal with on Christmas eve.

This action may begin as a mix as temps spike a little ahead of our system. The brief temp spike is a good thing, because it shows us we are dealing with a healthy system. That quickly go over to snow…

The GFS continues to increase the light snow numbers, and now has several areas hitting 1″ or a little better…

The NAM also increases the swath of snow on each run. Here’s the future radar and Satellite…

Given the very wet ground,  we will likely see melting taking place Sunday afternoon, before getting in on sticking snow after sundown. Much of our region is likely to get in on a coating to 1″ of snow…

Some areas may do a little better than 1″, but I’m not ready to bite on that just yet. I will update the “call” with updates later today.

Roads are likely to be wet through the daylight on Sunday, then may ice over after the sun goes down. Road crews won’t be able to pretreat because of all the rain falling today, so we will need to be on guard for slick travel developing Christmas Eve into Christmas morning.

Winds are very gusty during this time, with single digit wind chills showing up as Santa arrives…

Christmas morning flurries will then give way to a partly cloudy sky with a cold wind continuing to blow.

That wind may blow a batch of light snow and flurries back into the region Christmas night and Tuesday.

We continue to see the models showing a winter storm impacting our region and the eastern half of the country from Wednesday through Friday…

GFS

Canadian

That’s not a system that’s a week or two away, that’s a system we are tracking from less than 5 days out. It’s still only in the “interesting” category, but it’s a healthy signal.

 

 


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35 Responses to From Soggy To Snowy This Christmas Weekend

  1. Cold Rain says:

    Just “Plain Rain”. according to Andy Rose with the system 5 days away..Give us a detail reasoning with maps and showing us why the model’s are wrong and we just get “Plain Rain”..Enlighten me..

    • MarkS says:

      That’s because it will most likely be plain rain in 5 days, I hope…most every system this time if year in Ky has the “potential” to do anything. Normally a cold rain, with sime scattered flakes, maybe….theres your entire winter forecast in one sentence in Ky, from a guy that knows nothing about meteorology haha

      • Andy Rose says:

        If you looked at the models for a week ago for this system you would know why but i guess you wasn’t paying attention. The Canadian a week ago had the correct result for this system but even a broke clock is right twice a day.

        • MarkS says:

          Haha, my point exactly Andy. Merry Christmas

        • Cold Rain says:

          Well you got me there..I certainly ” wasn’t paying attention ” to what any model was showing a week head of time..Will look forward for our “Plain Rain ” next week..

          • Troy says:

            Well, if you live in the far southeastern counties closest to TN, that “Plain Rain” is most likely what you’ll see… If you live elsewhere, worry about your weather and not worry about Andys posts or what it does in Andys neck of the woods. Now doesn’t that sound reasonable?

      • MarkS says:

        You know, if you are going to be negative, you could at least not have took my username.

    • BubbaG says:

      We probably want cold rain. Even the models show us mainly as the fence, so a nasty mix with the usual snow leftovers at the end. Ice is showing and the models are usually not too shabby with that. Notice CB did not emphasize snow in his post. It could be a mess of a mix, so could be good if the models choke on this one.

    • Troy says:

      Don’t need maps and detailed reasoning to answer your question Cold Rain…location, location, location. In Andy’s area as well as mine, it is almost inevitable that if a good chunk of KY gets snow, we get rain (its a statistical fact). I’d place bets in Vegas that Andy is correct at least in our area.

      • Terry says:

        Same in Harlan too, lower elevations anyways. The lows on the west side of the apps always pull too much warm air into SE KY…we need a shift a bit east for us on this one coming up!

  2. MarkLex says:

    POURING rain out. I’m looking at the radar, and the heavy rains are not in south KY on TN/KY border, they are much farther north. What’s up with that?

  3. Schroeder says:

    I don’t know for sure, but I think it’s the warm front to our south cutting off the moisture supply from the Gulf ahead of the cold front about to enter our area.

    • Schroeder says:

      Just checked the water vapor loop and there is a lot of energy to our west and southwest to develop into a decent snowstorm for some. I am still holding out for a White Christmas here in Kentucky.

  4. Coffeelady says:

    Thsnks Chris. Pouring here in Somerset this morning. Santa would need a boat to navigate today! So, we see what happens next week. Right now I am excited about the possibility of flakes for Christmas! Have a great Saturday everyone!

  5. which way is the wind blowing says:

    Five days out to prepare for another cold rain.
    I hope I receive an umbrella from Santa.

  6. Rodger in Dodger says:

    Nice backside snow NOW falling at Rodger’s house! Big flakes too! Rodger in Dodger

  7. Terry says:

    Christmas Eve Eve Hurricane: Honestly didn’t expect this magnitude of wind with the intense rain. Harlan rocked with the wind all night long last night:)

  8. Winter lover says:

    Snowing in my neck of woods here in Union,co ky. Some talk too negative about our snow chances.

  9. c-BIV says:

    Gotta love it when people come on here and post “hey, it’s raining here” or “hey, now snowing in my area”….Well, where exactly is that…Illinois??

  10. Jimmie says:

    12z GFS has lost next week’s storm. The widespread ice storm is replaced with a little ice in Arkansas and parts of Alabama.

    At 7-8 days out, we’re still a little outside the window where GFS typically loses its mind so who knows.

  11. TennMark says:

    Interesting temperature contrasts. It’s 63 degrees in Chattanooga (even if this will be very short lived). 44 in Nashville. 39 in Hopkinsville KY. Even a few low 30s in southern Illinois.

    Thankfully, most if not all of the Flash Flood Watches, Flood Warnings and Flash Flood Warnings have been dropped as the rain moves on. Also, what little severe weather threat there was for Tennessee and southern Kentucky has been down gauged even further by the Storm Prediction Center. Stay safe everyone. Thanks, Chris!

  12. Winter lover says:

    C-biv, the rain change to snow this morning but it did snow for awhile didn’t stick to the ground. Sorry you didn’t have snow flying in your area.

  13. Mike S says:

    Teleconnection signals for our region offer better support for impactful system, though still not great. Euro puts heaviest snowfall north of Ohio River for late week storm.

  14. Andy Rose says:

    Temps has dropped 20 degrees since 7:30 am at my house.

  15. TeachLou says:

    Thanks for all you do CB! Flakes mixed in with the rain here earlier, between Eastwood area of LOU and Shelbyville. Just cold and grey now. Flakes flying tomorrow and Christmas Day would be nice!

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