Good Thursday, everyone. Our big New Year’s weekend is just around the corner, and we are tracking bitterly cold temps and some snow. It’s quite the setup for the days ahead, with bitterly cold temps likely to hang tough through the early days of 2018.
Temps out there this morning are in the single digits for many, with wind chills below zero. This is impressive cold considering we have a bare ground. Can we change that in the coming days? For some areas, yes.
We continue to watch the weekend and it’s all eyes on a system diving in Friday night and Saturday. If you want snow this weekend, this is the one you need to focus on. The one behind it is going to get crushed by the bitterly cold air coming into town.
I like how the Canadian Model is handling this system…
We’re seeing a quick spike in temps across southern Kentucky on Saturday and that usually means more precipitation can develop in the cold air. The exact placement of the snow shield is still not etched in stone, but here’s my current thinking on snowfall odds…
That’s a rough estimate and the weather doesn’t follow made up lines. 🙂 I hope to get a first call map out later today.
Winds will be VERY gusty as bitterly cold air surges in Saturday into the last day of the year on Sunday. That crushes our system moving along the south. Here’s the Canadian…
The European Model is the only one trying to do a little more, but it just can’t overcome the crushing cold…
That would actually bring some flurries across the region, but nothing more at this point. Temperatures to start the new year will be brutal. Lows on New Year’s Day can drop to zero or a little below in much of the region.
The setup after New Year’s Day on the European Model is for something big across the eastern half of the country. A trough like this is rare to see on a forecast model…
Something like that has been showing up with each run of the European Model, and that’s why we need to pay attention. Since getting out of the pattern where it struggled with ejecting southwestern troughs, the European is back to being the king.
From forecasting the Christmas weekend flooding and snow, to the non southern storm of this week and weekend… the Euro is rolling.
I will update things later today. Have a good one and take care.
The lows on this are almost scary…….. let’s hope it corrects and brings some snow, not double digit below zero…….
So much for that fighting SE ridge, this pattern shows that a SE ridge helps us if it’s positioned correctly. Without it there’s nothing to slow down the pattern or give us return flow.
Trough west ridge east…but position of trough in the west can be key too.
This super active pattern with multiple chances of snow has become super boring, cold and dry with basically no chances of snow. Most mets thought last week that this was going to be the week for snow but as usual the models over hyped the snow and underplayed the cold. Not sure why CB would bother making a accumulating snow odds map for Friday night/Saturday?
Yeah seems like a waste of time to put out forecast map for snow.
Typical model bait and switch, something to talk about which doesn’t materialize. I’m not buying anything a week away, because it’s always a week away.
When we get excited for tenths of an inch of snow, it’s pretty desperate for snow.
The big eastern storm will stay just that, to our east. Typical model baiting from this far out.
same. 🙁
Wasted Cold Air.
Festive flakes from the northwest.
Same repeat performance from mother nature.
Looks like most models keep snow north of Kentucky. Same old same old story.
Thanks Chris, It’s 2013 all over again, if I can recall. After this cold spell is over and forgotten I’am pulling the plug on this winter for any snowfall in my county.
Welcome to the dark side Schroeder! I personally pulled the plug on any snowfall this winter in my county a couple of weeks ago after the first 5 model fails of the season.
Crazy! This kind of cold and when you look at the current USA snow cover map, it’s not really impressive at all. Obviously, it is in the lake effect snow regions and mountains.
Could this cold last through Jan? I doubt it. Who knows? But what would really be a bummer is if the cold breaks in Jan and then we get tons of moisture. OR the cold remains and the southern JET comes into play. I keep eliminating Feb and March in my mind because of what Chris said with his WINTER forecast – how he thinks we will be warmer than normal. But in reality, no one could know what Feb and March will bring that far into the future.
I think when this current cold spell is over sometime next week that our winter will be behind us and then we can look forward to either a spring drought or a stormy period with a lot of tornado warnings. It’s a toss up.
Clipper mania and first winter storm threat has been a pitiful joke I agree what a waste of cold air we’re in a relatively dry type pattern we have not had much moisture since beginning of November can’t understand how we miss all the snow for so much cold weather lived in Kentucky all my life can remember lots of winters with at least off and on snow showers this December has been anything but “Active”
Again it’s just December folks, so don’t give up so easy of not getting any snow. Your gonna end up eating your words. Mother nature is unpredictable and the hell with these models.
Heard the exact same thing last winter…Mother Nature doesn’t have it in her. Bring it on! She fails every time.
I think I will agree with you. We are being too negative and we need to wait and give the weather pattern a chance. After all we are complaining about something we can’t do anything about.
You’re complaining just as much Schroeder. I didn’t know winter ended for us in December?? Our biggest snows have always come in January, February, and even March, but thanks to you looking at the water vapor loop and really nothing else, which you have admitted to before, we can now all rely on Schroeder’s prediction that winter will officially be over in a matter of a week. Thanks Schroeder that’s such a relief!!!
I’m not going to complain anymore Jeff about the current weather or future weather events. I think now that Winter Lover is right on, to wait and we will eventually find out what are future weather will be. You are right I did complain a lot but NOT ANYMORE. I’m just plain tired of it.
What I predicted that winter was over next week and it may be is nothing to get serious about. It’s just more BS.
It’s true I look at the water vapor loop. I can see what is currently going on with the Polar jet and the subtropical jet and make a guess at what might happen. Like I said before I’am not educated enough to read weather models or anything else about meteorology, but at lease I have the education to admit it.
As several of you predicted a week ago, this weekend’s snow has went from “potential” to chances. Hope you guys are right the rest of the winter…lets talk about spring!!! I will go ahead and predict now that the something big for next week turns into a “chance” for most of us….just a bit outside lol
I see he mentioned spike in temps Saturday. Can anyone say rain??? Like I mentioned yesterday. If a Clipper does have a little more moisture to work with, it goes up to 40 and rains until wind direction changes and blows in the dreaded backside flurries.
clippers are more likely to bring straight snow showers than rain to snow…..especially in a set up such as this. it’s the southern systems that normally have the dreaded backside flurries.
The Clippers this year have all started as rain in my area. Then the wind direction changes and blows the moisture away leaving the dreaded backside flurries. Used to be Clippers could be counted on for a couple inches, most times. Not anymore.
I think the Clippers are weak because of the Pine Apple Express in the Pacific Northwest. Robs the energy from the Clipper. Just a guess.
The few flakes the other day will be it as far as snow….West Ky snow less in 2018….
Made it down to 8 degrees this morning in my backyard
This is what Rodger’s momma meant when she said it’s too cold to snow. Clippers to the north, southern jet pushed to the south. Truth is, this pattern is not conducive to big snow for our area. Maybe some day we’ll get more than festive flakes. Rodger in Dodger
Funny..I used to hear my dad say the same thing..that it was “to cold to snow” I would always say dad…it’s never too cold to snow! But the ole timers knew the signs of when it got cold and I mean cold ! It just didn’t snow… The suppression of storms from the cold air… If you like snow in the deep deep South,then these artic outbreaks are just for you! For the rest of us it’s just bitter cold and watching TV reports of snow in Florida!!
Well we could do this..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?annotation_id=annotation_102891&feature=iv&src_vid=E_mdDbt_1Vc&v=cOYtjfxA7nw
How is any of this surprising? The models overall have choked every time for the past two years. Until one actually pans out with an outlook, there is only cherry picking for false results and no credibility.
Highly likely we could have two Seinfeld snow winters in a row. A lot of talk about nothing in regards to snow.
Personally, I’ve come to believe the models were programmed purely for hype and entertainment (at least runs beyond a 24 hours out) by someone with a sick sense of humor.
Crazy how well the models handle storms on the summer but can’t figure out cold and moisture in the winter. Keep up the good work CB
On a side note can’t wait for the UK WVU game. Should be a great one. Lower level seats are going for $7501$1000
Still early..Plenty of winter to go..If we can keep the -EPO with an occasional -AO we still should have plenty of chances..One thing model’s got right early on in the long range was the -EPO..
The noon NAM is out and shows the snow for the next 84 hrs north of the Ohio River…nice snow for Columbus Ohio. The 6z GFS was about the same. Looks likely we will see the cold but not the snow…
Congratulations to all of you who posted above- excluding Jeff Kidd- you have officially ruined the comment section! The rest of us are quite tired by you and as I suspect many other regular readers are doing, I will refrain from even reading this section in the future.
Thanks for speaking on my behalf. :eyeroll:
I like how many expert mets we have commenting every day. 😉
That’s what keeps you coming back 😉
Not commenting on a weather blog..Silly rabbit..
I’m afraid no one needs to be an expert met to see that it’s cold with very little chance of measurable snow to fall. “Expert” mets can’t accurately predict winter weather more than a few days – if that long – in advance. Rodger in Dodger
It’s a weather blog Hamlin lol…no one on here is curing a disease or balancing the budget, it’s a weather blog…have fun man
Patience. It’s just December. Most who read here are excited about snow potential. Please no complaining. CB shouldn’t need to read whiny comments. I believe snow will come at some point, and when it does, let the comments fly about how much and what your area gets, but so many negative comments is just ridiculous.
FWIW (not much) I am done posting until we get some form of event besides cold air. If I do not buy into the model outlook, no point in posting. We have CD’s, MP3’s and FLAC, so no point in playing broken records 🙂
Dang, I like you all (really) but Hammy is right. Gotta stop dim’ broken records!
Wrong
That is a reserved word. Pick a other
Wroongg
Teleconnections have not supported a significant snow event here. Honestly, I would prefer a +PNA trending negative in addition to -NAO, -EPO, and the -AO but trending positive. However, pattern does seem to follow 2013/14 winter, not much snow in December followed by decent snow events after January 15 going through March. But, that would mean also having to negate ongoing forecast for a warmer second half of winter.
So you’re wanting a torch aka dumpster fire….I can live with that..
Or I call it a backloaded winter.
Umm..backloaded winter with a -PNA,+NAO +AO +EPO..Don’t think that’s remotely possible..But i’ve been wrong many times..Just ask the Miss..
No. A negative AO trending more positive, or going toward neutral or higher. Then a positive PNA trending more negative toward neutral or lower, all this while maintaining a negative EPO and NAO.
That sounds better..Sry for misunderstanding..
MikeS, don’t leave out La nina. It is our biggest factor for almost two years now.
Kentucky is and always has been the worst State for snow hype. We are almost directly in the center, North/South, of the US and have to have that perfect and or freak setup to receive anything more than an ankle biter or cold rain. These next couple weeks are going to be brutal on us as far as cold, but I will be very optimistic and say that once we come out of this pattern, and warm up a bit, a southern fed system will slide up over the cold and we will get our one good snow for the season, or ice storm, or cold rain. Gotta Love Kentucky winters.
At least we can predict that the sun will go down and moon come out tonight. Then tomorrow the sun will rise again. We at least can predict that…..wait, maybe the models will get that wrong.
Models, Weathermen, Know it alls, or whoever…one thing is for sure, it’s going to do what its going to do. It’s just frustrating to hear hype and potential for snowy weather and it rarely turns out that way. Just think it’s not going to ever do much and when it does snow be thankful and enjoy!!!!
No, Indiana is.
Global warming, kids. The winters we used to know won’t be coming back any time soon.
Bet the people living on the Gulf coast is liking this GW thing..
It’s now called Climate Change or BS.
The current weather can be explained by low sun spot cycle. Look up the little Ice Age.