A Bitterly Cold New Year’s Eve Update

Happy New Year, everyone. Bitterly cold temps continue to push into the region and will dominate the pattern for the first week of the new year. Wind chills will reach the danger category on numerous locations, and I’m watching the northwestern sky for snow chances.

That northwestern sky may spawn a snow shower or  a few flurries out there this evening…

Overnight lows head toward 0 or below in the north with 0 to 8 above for much of the rest of the state. Gusty winds will combine to produce wind chills from -5 to -15 on occasion.

The short-range HRRR model shows the dangerously cold wind chills for the first morning of the new year…

The short-range RAP is even colder…

So, let’s look at those model forecasts then look at the Wind Chill Advisory map for our region…

The National Weather Service in Wilmington, Ohio finally put northern Kentucky and the Cincy area in the Advisory, but left the southeastern part of their service area out. I guess they wanted to contribute to the donut hole created by the NWS offices in Jackson and Charleston, WV.  As of this writing, their ENTIRE areas are surrounded by advisories.

While, wind chills in these areas may not be quite as cold as your neighbors to the west and north, you’re still getting wind chills from the above models that, in some cases, meet their beloved criteria for an advisory. Something to also consider, the models last night and this morning were way underdone with the wind chills. Readings were pushing -5 to -10 at times on the mesonet sites from the bluegrass region into parts of east central Kentucky.

On the flip side… Kudos to the NWS Office in Louisville. They have really been on their game with the Christmas Snow and the bitter cold, going all in on the impact side of things. They put together a great look at just how extreme this cold weather stretch is in our region…

This cold is historic, folks.

Moving on… A major east coast winter storm is likely by the middle of the week, sending more bitterly cold air into our region. That cold can easily rival what we are seeing over the next few days. A couple of systems may try to dive in here from the northwest, bringing snow chances as early as Thursday…

The European model as another system by next weekend…

You’re already seeing the models changing next weekend, showing just how difficult it is to push such a dense arctic air mass out.

While the extreme cold does start to relax next weekend and early next week, this continues to be a VERY cold pattern across our region. The GFS Ensembles show this as far as they can see into the middle of the month…

Once the extreme cold relaxes, we will have a better chance of getting southern systems into the mix for our region.

Make it a GREAT and SAFE New Year’s Eve. Take care!

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21 Responses to A Bitterly Cold New Year’s Eve Update

  1. Troy says:

    Unfortunately, those southern systems coming into the mix after the cold relaxes mean nothing for the snow lover in KY anymore because they almost always produce rain, sometimes heavy, followed by those pesky backside flurries.

    • Jimbo says:

      Could not agree more. Also everything coming out of the northwest stays up along I70. Just like the little snow system this morning, north of the Ohio River mainly up near 70.

  2. TeachLou says:

    Happy New Year fellow weather followers! This cold is brutal, especially with no snow to play in. I do not envy my friends in Omaha though, and I don’t miss the negative number temps, or crazy windchills!

  3. Rickie H says:

    I am and A-1 Snow lover. I read Chris’s blog 3-4-5 times a day and check Twitter in between… lol …. I wish we could have snow but it’s not working out that way. Winter is not over so there is still time. I’ve got a wonderful opportunity to visit the country of Israel, I’ll be leaving Tuesday and be there for two weeks. I’m very excited. So since we haven’t got a big snow yet, it don’t need to come a big one while I’m gone. It can wait 2 more weeks.
    Happy New Year everybody!
    Be safe and stay warm!

  4. LeeAnnie says:

    As a resident in the middle of that wind chill warning hole, I have to wonder if they would issue ANY warnings, EVER! I find that really annoying and wonder if there’s anybody even there? Sigh…….But kudos to you, Chris Bailey. I’ll continue to rely on you for my forecasts!

  5. MarkS says:

    Ahhh, those wonderful 1 week out models lol. Happy New Year to everyone!!

  6. Andy Rose says:

    The dreaded M word

  7. NikkiEKY says:

    I live in the Wymt viewing area. Our channel here says “Winter Weather Advisory”. What’s up with that?

  8. Chris Shafer says:

    You called the light snow, to bad the NWS didn’t add to the forecast until after the ground was coated road depts had no idea… Roads are slick, and still coming down here in Lex.

  9. Chris Mercer says:

    Roads covered in Versailles. Cold and wintry feel to the New Year!

  10. Mike says:

    Sending the year out with a total 1/2 inch of snow for the first part of winter 17-18, in my part of Richmond. Let’s hope the rest of the winter does the business.

    For reference – all of last winter ended with about 1 to 2 inches of snow, total. Worst in my 14 years here. But hte two or three winters before that were NICE! I guess regression towards the mean is in play…

  11. AC says:

    What is that white stuff falling outside? Is that glitter? 😉

    A little hope can go a long way.

    It’s not much, but it is enough to put you in the spirit.


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