A Big Winter Weather Impact Ahead

Good Saturday afternoon, everyone. A significant winter weather impact is on the way to the bluegrass state Sunday night and Monday. This will bring a combination of wintry precipitation to our region, leading to nasty travel conditions developing. I’m very close to pulling the trigger on a Winter Storm Threat for some areas, but want to wait for one more model run before making that call.

Before we get to that, let’s hear a standing ovation for the amazingly low temps out there this morning…

Many readings reached below zero on the Kentucky Mesonet sites, with -7 showing up in several locations… With a bare ground.

As we have talked about for nearly a week, the model trend continues to be for a colder system coming in late Sunday into Monday. A combination of freezing rain, sleet, snow and some rain will work across the state during this time.

It’s difficult to get very specific with how much of each precipitation type can fall in any one area, but here’s a new call on the potential…

The numbers and lines are pretty flexible in a situation like this, so I will be sending out future updates on “the call:. Regardless, this will have a significant travel impact starting Sunday evening and continuing into Monday.

I mentioned the models and the colder trend. The GFS is exhibit A…

Here are the winter weather maps from that run…

The 6z run of the NAM was a little disconcerting with a much heavier band of winter weather concentrating on north central Kentucky…

The frozen ground is going to be an absolute beast when it comes to travel. We are going to ice things up pretty good, unless the snow signal can fully win out.

The late week system continues to look pretty darn awesome and amazing. Let’s start with the temperatures on Thursday afternoon…

Fast forward to Friday night…

That’s around a 50 degree drop in roughly 24-30 hours. The Bold Prediction is watching this carefully. 😉

With that kind of a spread, there’s bound to be some action along the front. Sure enough, we have a thunderstorm to mix and snow setup on the models, with the potential for low pressure to develop on the front.

Here’s the GFS…

The Canadian is similar…

This continues to be wild winter pattern, as we are entering the next phase of this historic winter.

I will have another update this evening, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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54 Responses to A Big Winter Weather Impact Ahead

  1. Prelude says:

    Im not sure who to believe Schroeder or CB???

  2. Laura says:

    Granted, a HUGE mess!! But Tuesday and Wednesday temps….above 20 degrees..lets just relish in that, lol.

  3. C in BG says:

    I will gladly take the light ice to rain in BG. Y’all can keep the heavy stuff. If it’s not snow, then no thanks.

  4. Jimbo says:

    This Winter may be historic for meteorologists and data crunchers. But for me and I think a lot of people, it has so far not been memorable at all. Matter of fact, if this is the best Old Man Winter can do. I definitely will try hard to forget it. My guess for the end of week system is for all rain. Cold air never catches the moisture in Huntington, might see a flurry if I look hard enough.

  5. Blizzardtim says:

    What did I miss…bold prediction!?

  6. JJTeach says:

    Looks like a fun week of winter weather tracking! I’ve waited for this kind of action for a long time

  7. Mike says:

    So what is making this winter historic? Sure, it’s cold. But it is winter and it was colder a few winters ago. Jan of 2014 it hit -15 in my area (according to KYmesonet) and in Feb of 2015 the mesonet shows a -32 for a low with below zero lows for four days in a row…! (I wonder about those readings…) Perhaps it is the 2 straight weeks where it hasn’t been above freezing? Perhaps it is the cold is everywhere in the sate? OR maybe the lack of precipitation? (In my part of Richmond we have had, perhaps, one inch total of snow so far.)

    What do you think?

    • Mike S says:

      As CB has tweeted, Lexington has not seen too many of these prolonged cold spells of consecutive mornings of single digit temperatures. That’s just one example of something that has not happened in over 2 decades. Plus it’s easy to be geocentric, thinking Kentucky is the only one that has weather. But, there are places in Florida who have not seen snow in over 2 decades…and they got snow. The record setting lake effect snows near Erie PA of some 5 ft just from one event. I guess our version of historic is different than another person’s version.

  8. B H says:

    Doesn’t take much freezing rain to make it very slick. I hope here in Southern Ohio we get mostly snow.

  9. Holly says:

    So what parts of Tennessee will see this action?

  10. Winter lover says:

    No, his bold prediction was was a wind driving snow storm if I’m correct

  11. Tom says:

    Chris writes, “We haven’t been above freezing in Lexington since Christmas Eve. That’s 13 consecutive days and is the 6th longest streak on record. We have a chance to hit 14 straight tomorrow. #kywx>’

    My q: what is the record? It is amazing to me this is only the 6th longest streak…I would have thought it would rank higher.

  12. Formerly from KY says:

    Maybe It’s time for Kentuckians to do a snow dance maybe that will bring snow by next winter.

  13. Matt says:

    Looking forward to the warmth this week. 60 will feel like 90 after what we’ve been through here lately…

  14. Formerly from KY says:

    Where I live in Pennsylvania we haven’t been above 16 degrees in two weeks with lows below zero for 7 straight days.

  15. Lotsasnow says:

    All the latest models now show mostly rain for next weekend storm

  16. Lotsasnow says:

    Rain for at least the eastern half of kentucky and ohio and all of Pennsylvania for next weekend

  17. BubbaG says:

    Ironically, the bold prediction should have been snow ;). Tu tu tiiishh! Rim shot!

  18. Formerly from KY says:

    Lotsofsnow depending on where you live in Pennsylvania where I live there’s more of a chance of snow than rain according to the local weather man for next weekends storm.

  19. Andy Rose says:

    Temps are already tanking. 10 degrees off the high for today in my area.

  20. Russell says:

    Rain rain and then not much of anything again for west ky. Booooo

  21. Joyce says:

    Is there anything to update on?

  22. Andy Rose says:

    I’m sure there will be an update before the game. Be patient

  23. Lotsasnow says:

    Probably going to be all rain I’m guessing

  24. Schroeder says:

    Chris, I really feel sorry for you with the above post. I know that you are a great meteorologist because I can tell you really like what you are doing for a living and that is the most important in life is to be happy.

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