Good Saturday afternoon, everyone. A significant winter weather impact is on the way to the bluegrass state Sunday night and Monday. This will bring a combination of wintry precipitation to our region, leading to nasty travel conditions developing. I’m very close to pulling the trigger on a Winter Storm Threat for some areas, but want to wait for one more model run before making that call.
Before we get to that, let’s hear a standing ovation for the amazingly low temps out there this morning…
Many readings reached below zero on the Kentucky Mesonet sites, with -7 showing up in several locations… With a bare ground.
As we have talked about for nearly a week, the model trend continues to be for a colder system coming in late Sunday into Monday. A combination of freezing rain, sleet, snow and some rain will work across the state during this time.
It’s difficult to get very specific with how much of each precipitation type can fall in any one area, but here’s a new call on the potential…
The numbers and lines are pretty flexible in a situation like this, so I will be sending out future updates on “the call:. Regardless, this will have a significant travel impact starting Sunday evening and continuing into Monday.
I mentioned the models and the colder trend. The GFS is exhibit A…
Here are the winter weather maps from that run…
The 6z run of the NAM was a little disconcerting with a much heavier band of winter weather concentrating on north central Kentucky…
The frozen ground is going to be an absolute beast when it comes to travel. We are going to ice things up pretty good, unless the snow signal can fully win out.
The late week system continues to look pretty darn awesome and amazing. Let’s start with the temperatures on Thursday afternoon…
Fast forward to Friday night…
That’s around a 50 degree drop in roughly 24-30 hours. The Bold Prediction is watching this carefully. 😉
With that kind of a spread, there’s bound to be some action along the front. Sure enough, we have a thunderstorm to mix and snow setup on the models, with the potential for low pressure to develop on the front.
Here’s the GFS…
The Canadian is similar…
This continues to be wild winter pattern, as we are entering the next phase of this historic winter.
I will have another update this evening, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.
Im not sure who to believe Schroeder or CB???
May the better man win in this clash. (LoL)
LOL….hmmm 😛
Two records for this winter perhaps- two years in a row with little snow 😉 Not sure that has happened before. Definitely not since 1977 anyway. Cant speak much for beyond that. Gets too depressing to look.
Geeze people winter isn’t over yet by a long shot. Too negative is taking over your mind set. Lol
…… I’m sensing bias due to your forum name 😉
That was a good one Bubba!
BubbaG, ole man winter can deliver tell April so never say winter is over like many of you have said. It’s winter so far in my book compare to last year dealing with this extreme cold air. Maybe the snow will come in time and maybe not.
Granted, a HUGE mess!! But Tuesday and Wednesday temps….above 20 degrees..lets just relish in that, lol.
I will gladly take the light ice to rain in BG. Y’all can keep the heavy stuff. If it’s not snow, then no thanks.
This Winter may be historic for meteorologists and data crunchers. But for me and I think a lot of people, it has so far not been memorable at all. Matter of fact, if this is the best Old Man Winter can do. I definitely will try hard to forget it. My guess for the end of week system is for all rain. Cold air never catches the moisture in Huntington, might see a flurry if I look hard enough.
Cold air NEVER catches the moisture in Huntington? Come on.
What did I miss…bold prediction!?
50 degree drop in 24 hrs. It was on his winter forecast.
Chris called for a 50 temp swing in 24 hrs this winter.
Looks like a fun week of winter weather tracking! I’ve waited for this kind of action for a long time
So what is making this winter historic? Sure, it’s cold. But it is winter and it was colder a few winters ago. Jan of 2014 it hit -15 in my area (according to KYmesonet) and in Feb of 2015 the mesonet shows a -32 for a low with below zero lows for four days in a row…! (I wonder about those readings…) Perhaps it is the 2 straight weeks where it hasn’t been above freezing? Perhaps it is the cold is everywhere in the sate? OR maybe the lack of precipitation? (In my part of Richmond we have had, perhaps, one inch total of snow so far.)
What do you think?
As CB has tweeted, Lexington has not seen too many of these prolonged cold spells of consecutive mornings of single digit temperatures. That’s just one example of something that has not happened in over 2 decades. Plus it’s easy to be geocentric, thinking Kentucky is the only one that has weather. But, there are places in Florida who have not seen snow in over 2 decades…and they got snow. The record setting lake effect snows near Erie PA of some 5 ft just from one event. I guess our version of historic is different than another person’s version.
Good point…
Doesn’t take much freezing rain to make it very slick. I hope here in Southern Ohio we get mostly snow.
So what parts of Tennessee will see this action?
WBIR 10 in Knoxville and WSMV 4 Nashville are excellent sources for detailed Tennessee weather.
No, his bold prediction was was a wind driving snow storm if I’m correct
No
http://www.wkyt.com/content/news/Chris-Baileys-Winter-Forecast–Colder-snowier-with-a-wild-50-degree-temperature-drop-one-day-458056333.html
After watching that again I just busted out laughing at the sight of that 16″-24″ snow map for my area!!!!!! Really???
Thanks for clarifying that Andy, I was wrong.
I think wind-driven snow event was last year’s prediction
Yep, the wind blew so hard, none hit the ground 😉 🙂
According to the link the prediction last year was for Ice . The year before was the snow driven event.
Chris writes, “We haven’t been above freezing in Lexington since Christmas Eve. That’s 13 consecutive days and is the 6th longest streak on record. We have a chance to hit 14 straight tomorrow. #kywx>’
My q: what is the record? It is amazing to me this is only the 6th longest streak…I would have thought it would rank higher.
I saw one from Jan/Feb 1978 of 18 consecutive days, but don’t know if that is a record.
NWS Louisville has been posting the streak. It has the records for Louisville, Lexington, and Bowling Green on it.
Maybe It’s time for Kentuckians to do a snow dance maybe that will bring snow by next winter.
I wouldn’t hold my breath.
Or maybe be patient and let the winter play out and see what happens
Looking forward to the warmth this week. 60 will feel like 90 after what we’ve been through here lately…
Where I live in Pennsylvania we haven’t been above 16 degrees in two weeks with lows below zero for 7 straight days.
All the latest models now show mostly rain for next weekend storm
Rain for at least the eastern half of kentucky and ohio and all of Pennsylvania for next weekend
No, the cherry picked models say Snow. Well, even that’s a stretch…. more like a mix.
Ironically, the bold prediction should have been snow ;). Tu tu tiiishh! Rim shot!
Lotsofsnow depending on where you live in Pennsylvania where I live there’s more of a chance of snow than rain according to the local weather man for next weekends storm.
Temps are already tanking. 10 degrees off the high for today in my area.
Almost 20 in north Richmond when I went jogging today.
About 12:30
Just wait till that southwest wind kicks in tomorrow. Talking about a 50 degree temp drop late week. We could very well see a 50 degree rise in a day or two.
Rain rain and then not much of anything again for west ky. Booooo
Is there anything to update on?
Thinking Mr Bailey’s fighting illness. Bad timing. Rodger in Dodger
Poor man can’t catch a break for the crud.
I’m sure there will be an update before the game. Be patient
Probably going to be all rain I’m guessing
Chris, I really feel sorry for you with the above post. I know that you are a great meteorologist because I can tell you really like what you are doing for a living and that is the most important in life is to be happy.