Good Saturday afternoon, everyone. A significant winter weather impact is on the way to the bluegrass state Sunday night and Monday. This will bring a combination of wintry precipitation to our region, leading to nasty travel conditions developing. I’m very close to pulling the trigger on a Winter Storm Threat for some areas, but want to wait for one more model run before making that call.

Before we get to that, let’s hear a standing ovation for the amazingly low temps out there this morning…

Many readings reached below zero on the Kentucky Mesonet sites, with -7 showing up in several locations… With a bare ground.

As we have talked about for nearly a week, the model trend continues to be for a colder system coming in late Sunday into Monday. A combination of freezing rain, sleet, snow and some rain will work across the state during this time.

It’s difficult to get very specific with how much of each precipitation type can fall in any one area, but here’s a new call on the potential…

The numbers and lines are pretty flexible in a situation like this, so I will be sending out future updates on “the call:. Regardless, this will have a significant travel impact starting Sunday evening and continuing into Monday.

I mentioned the models and the colder trend. The GFS is exhibit A…

Here are the winter weather maps from that run…

The 6z run of the NAM was a little disconcerting with a much heavier band of winter weather concentrating on north central Kentucky…

The frozen ground is going to be an absolute beast when it comes to travel. We are going to ice things up pretty good, unless the snow signal can fully win out.

The late week system continues to look pretty darn awesome and amazing. Let’s start with the temperatures on Thursday afternoon…

Fast forward to Friday night…

That’s around a 50 degree drop in roughly 24-30 hours. The Bold Prediction is watching this carefully. 😉

With that kind of a spread, there’s bound to be some action along the front. Sure enough, we have a thunderstorm to mix and snow setup on the models, with the potential for low pressure to develop on the front.

Here’s the GFS…

The Canadian is similar…

This continues to be wild winter pattern, as we are entering the next phase of this historic winter.

I will have another update this evening, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.