Saturday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. We have one more bitterly cold night ahead, with all eyes on a winter weather system moving in Sunday night and Monday.

Here are my latest thoughts:

  • A wintry mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain develops from west to east Sunday evening into early Monday morning.
  • It is incredible difficult to pinpoint any one precipitation type for any location. The same can also be said for duration of each precipitation type.
  • Ground temperatures are well below freezing, so it won’t take much of whatever falls to create slick roads where you live.
  • The greatest travel impact comes early Monday morning.
  • Let’s clear something up… This does NOT look like an ice storm.

The various forecast models are not fully capable of  grasping the amount of low-level cold air, nor do they understand the whole frozen ground concept. Normal forecast model algorithms aren’t going to be of much use.

Even if temps manage to creep above freezing ahead of the precipitation moving in, those numbers will drop as precipitation starts falling. The frozen ground will also mean the above air temps won’t do much for keeping untreated roads, sidewalks or parking lots from becoming icy.

That said, we can still see if any model is close to grasping the setup. The Canadian Model has done VERY well in recent weeks. It really sees the freezing rain potential…

The European Model had not been seeing very much of the frozen precipitation leading up to this. The latest run is starting to see the setup. Here are the snow and ice maps from the last run…

While this system is NOT a major storm, it is likely to be a HIGH impact travel system late Sunday night into early Monday.

Looking farther down the road, we continue to see the setup for a wild end of the week. Temps can make a run toward the 60s before arctic air and winter weather return just hours later…

I will have your full update with a New Call For Snow/Icefall coming later tonight.

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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21 Responses to Saturday Evening Update

  1. Coffeelady says:

    Aw Come on Chris….. you should have called this ‘The Saturday Efening Post!’ ;). Thanks for the update. Stay warm and safe everyone!

  2. feederband says:

    When might the NWS Louisville issue and advisory?

  3. DenaA says:

    Thanks, Chris! Hanging on every post!

    • BubbaG says:

      So is Bj, since he needs to get his salt ready for action.

      • Bjenks says:

        Thanks for the reminder BubbaG! I am really hoping that I can just sit back and relax, but I need to pay the bills so come on 32 degree rain, or any other frozen precipitation that might fall, so I can get rid of some two year old salt.

        And where is ROLO???

  4. Rodger in Dodger says:

    No alert? This will be mostly rain and freezing rain and next weekend’s could miss us too. The temps may be “historic” this winter, but the lack of snow really stinks. Rodger in Dodger

  5. Bobt says:

    Historic cold, no snow, and trying to forecast rain hitting a frozen ground and causing slick roads. Only in Kentucky.

    • Cold Rain says:

      Really..I don’t get this comment from Chris..(The frozen ground will also mean the above air temps won’t do much for keeping untreated roads, sidewalks or parking lots from becoming icy)..So if the roads are treated they won’t become icy??..Can understand sidewalks and parking lots but i don’t drive on sidewalks..Just confusing when you have appointments and your kids have to register for the semester..Just no clear picture on what to expect..

      • Rachel says:

        I think he’s pointing out that even if the main roads that can be treated are okay, look for potential school closings and impact on morning commutes. Neighborhood streets that aren’t treated and are major bus routes, sidewalks for bus riders, parking lots for businesses and such are going to be a mess and hazardous.

    • BubbaG says:

      Seems the end of week system might ironically play out like this one ix expected to, minus the frozen ground.

  6. Winter Rocks says:

    Let’s all remember to not jump the gun it’s only the first week of January and technically only 2 days past the first two weeks of winter! No matter what we do or say on here Mother Nature is only going to produce what she wants us to have and nothing more.
    Good job posting Chris I always enjoy reading your post regardless what the weather is supposed to be! Keep it up! At least I understand and will remember this historic and bitter cold we just can’t seem to shake!

  7. Crystal In Pikeville says:

    No ice-in paradise lol

  8. Mike S says:

    Latest NAM does not show much ice accumulation in Louisville (0.08″- 0.12″), but timing not good for morning commuters

  9. Bubba says:

    Looks like the Kitty Cats are imploding tonight like the week out model outlooks do for snow for KY.

  10. Bob says:

    Weather nation shows the low going well into the gulf and virtually no precipitation east of I-75 through Monday evening. Somebody is going to be off bad.

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