Monday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. Dense fog is a big issue out there tonight and will continue into early Tuesday. Some pockets of black ice may also show up, especially across the northern half of the state.

From here, the focus continues to be on a wild setup coming later this week. Don’t believe me? Check out the temperature swing coming up.

Here’s the GFS for Thursday afternoon…

Temps then crash from west to east Thursday night into Friday. Here’s the GFS by Friday night…

That’s a 40-50 degree swing in roughly 24-30 hours.

This gradient is showing up along a modified arctic front, with low pressure developing along it. That low is likely to target the Ohio Valley for a winter storm Friday into Saturday. The exact track of this low will determine what happens in your backyard, and it’s too early to know how that plays out.

The latest GFS has a nice hit for our region…

The European Model is the most wrapped up with this storm, therefore it’s a little slower and farther west. However. we are seeing the model trend farther east with this storm.

Last night’s run took the bulk of the winter action just west and north…

The latest run came much farther south and east…

If we look at the individual members of the GFS Ensembles, we find many of them targeting the bluegrass state…

While it’s still too early to tell just how much of an impact this will have on the weather where you live, it’s not like we are talking about a system a week away. This could begin as early as Thursday night.

The first Winter Storm Threat may be forthcoming with my next update.

Bitterly cold temps come in behind that system, with single digits possible again. That sets the stage for another possible system to throw some winter weather at us early next week…

I will see you guys back here for the overnight update. Make it a good one and take care.

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40 Responses to Monday Evening Update

  1. jackson says:

    Hoping for a good snow here in Belfry in far East KY. Looks like Central KY and Western KY have a better chance for accumulating snow as of now so hopefully the snow lovers get a big one.

  2. SHAAK says:

    The one weekend I don’t want it to snow…

  3. corey says: of the state are overdue…they have barely seen flurries so far

  4. Rodger in Dodger says:

    Rodger says NOW WE’RE TALKING! Bring it on – several inches! Rodger in Dodger

  5. Bubba says:

    CB seems more guarded even with discussions. The models have been too off perhaps for CB to buy into yet. Sorry Lucy, this CB is Chris Bailey- and not the other CB πŸ™‚

    • Rodger in Dodger says:

      Mr Bailey mentioned he might go Winter Threat mode overnight. How is that being “guarded”? Rodger in Dodger

  6. Terry says:

    Looks way too west for SE KY but , hopefully, someone in the state will finally cover the ground.

  7. Jimbo says:

    I will hope for the best (heavy snow). But most likely have to live with the worst (rain/backside flurries) in Huntington.

  8. Mike says:

    Is this where we pick the ensemble that we like best? “Come on e15!”… Hopefully we add to our, perhaps, 1 inch total for the year.

  9. Coffeelady says:

    Well a possible threat mode? That can only mean someone somewhere is gonna get clobbered! Who will it be? Time will tell. Have a good evening all. Thanks Chris, and Roll Tide, and/or Go Dawgs! Either way…… πŸ˜‰

  10. Lotsasnow says:

    Local met here in central ohio says frzz rain and sleet I’m not buying that.

  11. GW says:

    Still the most depressing comment section on the Internet. Just move to a place where it snows already!

  12. Clapp Landscaping says:

    Dang. The NAM looks like the GFS

  13. Dawnp007 says:

    Keeping my fingers crossed for an old fashioned snow thumping!

  14. Cold Rain says:

    Well, besides the crazy comment from George Washington and now Bubba and SK believe it’s time to turn out the light;s..

  15. Brandon says:

    This storm is looking similar to the Dec 04 storm. Someone in this region is going to get a big snow. The rest of us are looking at sleet and freezing rain with a coating of snow just like in 04.

  16. Jeff Hamlin says:

    I’m glad to come to the comment section for expert analysis.

  17. Bjenks says:

    Hhhmmmm…This one just may blow up into something big.

  18. StormtrackerWV says:

    OMG from the forecast discussion at the National Weather Service in Charleston, WV:

    Winter weather advisories allowed to expire, as measurable
    precipitation moves out of the area. However, SPS issued
    forecast area wide on account of icy patches, mainly in the

    Is that really how you spell it?!!? I mean, I know that’s how some people pronounce it, but I think the correct spelling is “hollows”? They spelled it like that in the “Special Weather Statement” too πŸ™

  19. Prelude says:

    Alabama football is unreal

  20. Todd says:

    This is starting to look a real threat for most if not all of Ky, snow lovers look out but Ice may crash the party? πŸ™‚

  21. SHAAK says:

    Working night shift tonight. Where’s our update Chris?

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