Good evening, everyone. It’s been a few years, but the blog is back in Winter Storm THREAT mode. This is for our developing storm coming our way Friday and Saturday. We still have several questions that need to be answered about the storm, but confidence is high that a winter storm will impact our region.

The questions with our storm are the typical ones… Where does low track exactly? How strong does the storm get? While I’m not expecting this to be a system that features MAJOR deviations , we still have the usual wiggle room with track and intensity.

Let’s start the Threat out with a general risk area…

For those new to how we do things on KWC… A threat means there is an increased risk for significant amounts of snow (4″ or more) or ice (.30″ or greater). If confidence increases as we get closer, we upgrade to Winter Storm ALERT. If confidence decreases, we downgrade to “what could have been”. 🙂

As we get closer, I will hone in even more on the greatest risk area. For now, I feel good that a large chunk of our region will get in on a substantial hit from this winter storm. It’s a winter storm that can put down significant amounts of snow and ice. At this point, I cannot tell you what that means for your backyard specifically.

The intensity of this storm is ramping up a bit on the forecast models, especially the European and NAM. Both models show a POTENT upper level system closing off to our southwest, then lifting northward into the region…

European

NAM

That allows for a tremendous amount of lift and develops a stronger surface low. That low should track from east Tennessee into West Virginia.

The European Model has a lot of precipitation, with a quick switch from rain to ice and snow taking place from west to east. This sequence starts Thursday night and ends Saturday evening…

The NAM only goes through 1am Saturday, but has a similar look…

Since both models show a strengthening low, they are increasing the potential for high winds. The European Model wind gusts for Friday night…

If the NAM and European Models hold, it’s a major winter storm impacting much of Kentucky and surrounding areas.

The GFS had been similar earlier, but the late afternoon run came in with a weaker system…

That is still a good hit for our region, but is much weaker than the other models. If we keep getting agreement from the European and NAM over the next few days… Look out.

We are still more than 48 hours away from the first winter weather impacting western parts of the state, so changes to the forecast are very possible. It’s way too early to talk specifics or to put out any kind of first call maps.

After lingering snow showers into Sunday, another threat level system may impact our region from later Monday through Tuesday…

I may throw you another update before the evening is finished. Make it a good one and take care.