The NAM Goes BAM

Good late evening, folks. Our Winter Storm Threat continues for Friday and Saturday. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the latest run of the NAM and to use a blog title we haven’t had the chance to use for a while. 🙂

Let me be as upfront as I can be right out of the gate… THIS IS NOT A FORECAST from me. I’m only sharing what this model run is showing.

The NAM is much colder, quicker on Friday, leading to much more widespread ice and snow…

If this run of the NAM even comes slow to verifying, it’s a shutdown storm for much of the region. Significant amounts of ice and snow both show up…

Freezing Rain

Snowfall

I’ve put the disclaimer on the maps that this is NOT A FORECAST from me… right now. It’s what this run of the NAM is showing.

The NAM is also showing wind gusts of 30-40mph during the event.

Let’s relax and see what the rest of the models show over the next few hours. I will post those, too, regardless of if they show something similar or something much lower.

Winter Storm THREAT continues.

Take care.


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79 Responses to The NAM Goes BAM

  1. Bill Ayer says:

    Wow!

  2. Melva says:

    Looks amazing..sad Huntington /Ashland area is going to miss this one 🙁

  3. C in BG says:

    Yikes! I DO NOT WANT an INCH and a quarter of ice.

  4. Drew says:

    Is that east trend a sign that it may continue to move east more or will it likely go back west and correct itself?

    • Msd says:

      Can just as easily go west as east. Nam is usually not that accurate at this time frame. Once we get to 48 hours it’s pretty good. But I suspect this thing will go a bit further east, due to ensembles of both gfs and Canadian showing the low east of their operationals. Question is how much room it has as the clock runs down.

  5. Lotsasnow says:

    I would take this seriously. Local guys up here in central ohio say much of kentucky and ohio say this has potential to become a historical storm.

  6. drewdrip says:

    Reminds me of 1/17/94

  7. Joe Thompson says:

    .2 for me as in 2/10 as in two tenths…..lovely.

  8. Sean says:

    Bring on the snow baby! I’m been doing my snow dance since 2016. Hopefully it finally pays off. You’re welcome guys/gals!! Lol. We love you Chris. Keep up the good work!

  9. Troy says:

    Bubba will keel over when seeing that first map! After seeing those hypothetical freezing rains totals, it makes me happy my area will be spared from this mess! Can I get a second on that notion…Andy or Terry? What say you?

    • BubbaG says:

      Looks like Richmond could be spared as well. If we go with the NAM, it has a sharp cut-off for I64. Richmond is I75 🙂

      Folks anywhere near I64- Watch out! NAM say BLAM!

  10. Cold Rain says:

    Pretty big shift east from the Nam..Now lets see what the GFS has up it’s sleeve..

  11. Matt says:

    I know this is not a forecast yet and it’s still early, but dang any chance eastern KY, Louisa in particular, may get in on there action??

    • Cold Rain says:

      Probably know by tomorrow evening..Clock is ticking though

    • Melva says:

      Very doubtful..maybe some freezing rain or flurries, but definitely not that monster crusher of a snow storm! This could still fizzle out and die down and move even further away at this point..my guess is this is what will happen as it always tends to. But seems like someone is in for a whopping hit somewhere!

  12. JJTeach says:

    We really appreciate your updates during this Winter Storm Threat mode that we’re in, as we always do. Thanks for showing up what the models are saying on a regular basis. Us weather weenies eat it up!

  13. Jeff says:

    Bring it on!!!!

  14. Coffeelady says:

    Wow! That’s really getting interesting. But this is Tuesday…. lets have a look at tomorrow’s blog and maps and see what our weather guru aka Chris Bailey, has to say. In the meantime, it’s realky fun to look st, isn’t it?

  15. Prelude says:

    Look at Louisville to Cincinnati on this map I-71 corridor a inch of ice 14.5-20 inches of snow on top of that? I’m not buying that, the NAM Is way way overdone on this particular model run.

  16. Nasdaq says:

    I was thinking this could jump the apps, and it just might yet

  17. Ryan says:

    Wow Eastern KY gets practically nothing out of this storm if that’s right. Amazing but not surprised. So far this winter has been a clunker. Cold and no snow. Hopefully February produces some magic.

    • BubbaG says:

      Why would you want ice anyway? The crush would not be snow. No fun snow action either, since ice and snow mix with twenty and teen temps is basically cement until thawed.

  18. Justin says:

    sure don’t like the southern end of the 0z nam. Lewis Co. TN where i’m at- 8 to 10 inches sittin right on top of me, but drive one county over to the east and it drops to 2 in. Two counties to the west… 2 also. Don’t care for this splittin hairs stuff. It’s gonna have to widen out some to give me some comfort. Thursday night 0z runs of GFS, NAM, and EURO I think will be the gospel or very close to it.

  19. Cold Rain says:

    Believe it may go more southeast..

  20. BubbaG says:

    But the NAM says “I64” though, which means almost all of the BAM is still to the west as expected earlier today. What is different? Not seeing much of an east shift unless we cherry pick other models and mashup with this one. This look I64 and a SHARP cutoff. If ice- that is OK by me 🙂

    No offense to I64 folks 😉

  21. Cold Rain says:

    Eastern Ky may not be out of the game yet

  22. Nikki says:

    Hoping Laurel County will get some snow! No ice please
    I have 3 little ones that are watching the weather like crazy hoping that they will be able to get out the sleds! It looks like we are just right on the line

  23. Prelude says:

    GFS much better behaved than the rowdy NAM

  24. Troy says:

    GFS is finished running but it is definitely NOT in agreement with that ridiculous NAM run except maybe the ice.

  25. Cold Rain says:

    Looked meh to me..Hoping for early spring..Can taste the peas now..

  26. SHAAK says:

    A broad 1-3 inches

  27. Msd says:

    Canadian doesn’t want to offend anyone. All KY and TN get some snow, but it’s light for most.

    • Prelude says:

      I’m guessing take the NAM the GFS and Canadian and meet somewhere in the middle for now

      • Msd says:

        Agree. Nam has wet bias. Will be interesting to see the rgem once it’s in range.

      • BubbaG says:

        I still do not buy the east being impacted much. Sticking with the main action I64 west and some light stuff further east. Seems too much cherry picking unless the average model trends move east. Does not seem too likely.

  28. BengalFan says:

    “Let’s relax and see..”.
    That’s funny.
    Here’s to watching on the models…

    • BubbaG says:

      What will it be, the cruel ice crush that the NAM has with I64, or a frozen mix of 1/3 ice and 2/3 snow based on the average of the models? Folks in that map above do not want this. Good thing just a model 🙂 😉

  29. Braxton says:

    Canadian link?

  30. SHAAK says:

    When will the Euro be available?

  31. Cold Rain says:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2018011000/gem_asnow_seus_18.png

    Looks interesting that 6 in streak showing on the border..Wonder if thats some kind of heavy band..

  32. Kristen says:

    Yes please!! Why can’t this stuff happen during the school week? We are already off Monday for MLK Day.

  33. Jeff Hamlin says:

    Chris could put “THIS IS NOT A FORECAST” in a crazy font with blinking letters, yet still get the usual false accusations of hype in here.

    • BubbaG says:

      CB ain’t just blogging about a storm. 27 and 56 both are saying a chance for a winter storm and shows most of Kentucky involved. Interestingly the other channels are saying for now it is all way west, NW. Very big difference in forecasts.

      Will the other mets catch up, or will CB adjust? I do recall the one of the last two big snows CB called it a few days before the other mets and they finally caught up the night before the storm hit.

      As long as no big ice to trigger my phobia, I am good with a miss, light stuff, mix, fog, auroras, sleet cold rain, etc 🙂

  34. Braxton says:

    I wonder if this system will trend east with a bigger hit for Central/Eastern Kentucky into western WV?

  35. Tim says:

    The Louisville Mets are still saying rain with a little snow on the back end. They`re saying the impact will be from the water freezing, on roads, from the colder air after the rain ends.
    They say the area from Paducah to southern Illinois to central Indiana will get what snow that falls.

    • which way is the wind blowing says:

      All 100% are saying that!
      If they all are saying that the mets have to be in the euro camp.

      • BubbaG says:

        Nope. 27 and 56 are saying winter storm chance and cover most of KY based on their map flow on TV. The other two local channels are saying Euro like the other referred to.

  36. Cold Rain says:

    Where’s Schroeder..

    • which way is the wind blowing says:

      I am sure he will give his take early in the am.

    • Schroeder says:

      I am right here, and all of your comments are great. I choose not to comment on the impending storm, because of the lack of education in weather models. It’s hell being old and stupid.

  37. Jimmie says:

    If the NAM’s ice predictions are even close to correct, there are going to be places that will be without power for weeks. Be careful what you wish for.

  38. Karen says:

    Well we all have to realize we get what we get ..Chris does a great job… we r due for something big to happen everyone around us have had their share….I’m in northern my 20 minutes from Cincinnati. I’m right in the middle….❄️☃️

  39. Cold Rain says:

    Lets hope the Euro holds on to a more amped up solution..At least Western Ky would benefit..

  40. SHAAK says:

    So does the Euro not show precipitation?

  41. SHAAK says:

    Chris just tweeted that the Euro is farther east and more like the NAM with ice and snow.

  42. Cold Rain says:

    Crazy day of model watching..Hard to believe..Guess you’re never out..

  43. greasy bean says:

    by this time tomorrow eastern ky and wv will be in the bullseye

  44. Sean says:

    The truth must lie somewhere in the middle of all the model runs. Maybe by tomorrow night Chris will have a better handle on things. I’m going to bed. It’s been an exciting day.

  45. Virgil E. says:

    Team #WhatCouldHaveBeen

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