Good late evening, folks. Our Winter Storm Threat continues for Friday and Saturday. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the latest run of the NAM and to use a blog title we haven’t had the chance to use for a while. 🙂
Let me be as upfront as I can be right out of the gate… THIS IS NOT A FORECAST from me. I’m only sharing what this model run is showing.
The NAM is much colder, quicker on Friday, leading to much more widespread ice and snow…
If this run of the NAM even comes slow to verifying, it’s a shutdown storm for much of the region. Significant amounts of ice and snow both show up…
Freezing Rain
Snowfall
I’ve put the disclaimer on the maps that this is NOT A FORECAST from me… right now. It’s what this run of the NAM is showing.
The NAM is also showing wind gusts of 30-40mph during the event.
Let’s relax and see what the rest of the models show over the next few hours. I will post those, too, regardless of if they show something similar or something much lower.
Winter Storm THREAT continues.
Take care.
Wow!
Looks amazing..sad Huntington /Ashland area is going to miss this one 🙁
Yikes! I DO NOT WANT an INCH and a quarter of ice.
How about 0.6″ of ice and 20″ of snow on top of it? -A guy from Bowling Green living in Covington….
Yes please.
That`s equally as bad.
Is that east trend a sign that it may continue to move east more or will it likely go back west and correct itself?
Can just as easily go west as east. Nam is usually not that accurate at this time frame. Once we get to 48 hours it’s pretty good. But I suspect this thing will go a bit further east, due to ensembles of both gfs and Canadian showing the low east of their operationals. Question is how much room it has as the clock runs down.
Nam use to have a NW bias also..Don’t know about now since the upgrade
I would take this seriously. Local guys up here in central ohio say much of kentucky and ohio say this has potential to become a historical storm.
Reminds me of 1/17/94
Me too Drew. I was out of school for two weeks here in Louisville after that storm.
.2 for me as in 2/10 as in two tenths…..lovely.
Bring on the snow baby! I’m been doing my snow dance since 2016. Hopefully it finally pays off. You’re welcome guys/gals!! Lol. We love you Chris. Keep up the good work!
Bubba will keel over when seeing that first map! After seeing those hypothetical freezing rains totals, it makes me happy my area will be spared from this mess! Can I get a second on that notion…Andy or Terry? What say you?
Looks like Richmond could be spared as well. If we go with the NAM, it has a sharp cut-off for I64. Richmond is I75 🙂
Folks anywhere near I64- Watch out! NAM say BLAM!
Pretty big shift east from the Nam..Now lets see what the GFS has up it’s sleeve..
I know this is not a forecast yet and it’s still early, but dang any chance eastern KY, Louisa in particular, may get in on there action??
Probably know by tomorrow evening..Clock is ticking though
Very doubtful..maybe some freezing rain or flurries, but definitely not that monster crusher of a snow storm! This could still fizzle out and die down and move even further away at this point..my guess is this is what will happen as it always tends to. But seems like someone is in for a whopping hit somewhere!
We really appreciate your updates during this Winter Storm Threat mode that we’re in, as we always do. Thanks for showing up what the models are saying on a regular basis. Us weather weenies eat it up!
Bring it on!!!!
Wow! That’s really getting interesting. But this is Tuesday…. lets have a look at tomorrow’s blog and maps and see what our weather guru aka Chris Bailey, has to say. In the meantime, it’s realky fun to look st, isn’t it?
Look at Louisville to Cincinnati on this map I-71 corridor a inch of ice 14.5-20 inches of snow on top of that? I’m not buying that, the NAM Is way way overdone on this particular model run.
NAM has a “crush” on I64 🙂 The affection might be unrequited 😉
I was thinking this could jump the apps, and it just might yet
Lows don’t jump the Apps….will ride the spine or go up the west side. Still think this will correct back west before said and done.
has to be one side or the other, thats what i meant btw
Wow Eastern KY gets practically nothing out of this storm if that’s right. Amazing but not surprised. So far this winter has been a clunker. Cold and no snow. Hopefully February produces some magic.
Why would you want ice anyway? The crush would not be snow. No fun snow action either, since ice and snow mix with twenty and teen temps is basically cement until thawed.
sure don’t like the southern end of the 0z nam. Lewis Co. TN where i’m at- 8 to 10 inches sittin right on top of me, but drive one county over to the east and it drops to 2 in. Two counties to the west… 2 also. Don’t care for this splittin hairs stuff. It’s gonna have to widen out some to give me some comfort. Thursday night 0z runs of GFS, NAM, and EURO I think will be the gospel or very close to it.
Believe it may go more southeast..
But the NAM says “I64” though, which means almost all of the BAM is still to the west as expected earlier today. What is different? Not seeing much of an east shift unless we cherry pick other models and mashup with this one. This look I64 and a SHARP cutoff. If ice- that is OK by me 🙂
No offense to I64 folks 😉
Eastern Ky may not be out of the game yet
Hoping Laurel County will get some snow! No ice please
I have 3 little ones that are watching the weather like crazy hoping that they will be able to get out the sleds! It looks like we are just right on the line
GFS much better behaved than the rowdy NAM
Good. NAM would crush folks to the west, NW in Kentucky.
Not the good type of crush.
Link?
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018011000&fh=96&xpos=0&ypos=370
Thanks
GFS is finished running but it is definitely NOT in agreement with that ridiculous NAM run except maybe the ice.
isn’t finished running that is…
Looked meh to me..Hoping for early spring..Can taste the peas now..
A broad 1-3 inches
Canadian doesn’t want to offend anyone. All KY and TN get some snow, but it’s light for most.
I’m guessing take the NAM the GFS and Canadian and meet somewhere in the middle for now
Agree. Nam has wet bias. Will be interesting to see the rgem once it’s in range.
I still do not buy the east being impacted much. Sticking with the main action I64 west and some light stuff further east. Seems too much cherry picking unless the average model trends move east. Does not seem too likely.
“Let’s relax and see..”.
That’s funny.
Here’s to watching on the models…
What will it be, the cruel ice crush that the NAM has with I64, or a frozen mix of 1/3 ice and 2/3 snow based on the average of the models? Folks in that map above do not want this. Good thing just a model 🙂 😉
Canadian link?
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018011000&fh=132&xpos=0&ypos=139
When will the Euro be available?
The Forecast for the Winter storm period will be out about
12:30 CT
Last Euro stuck way west. Would be surprised if budges much from there.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2018011000/gem_asnow_seus_18.png
Looks interesting that 6 in streak showing on the border..Wonder if thats some kind of heavy band..
Yes please!! Why can’t this stuff happen during the school week? We are already off Monday for MLK Day.
Chris could put “THIS IS NOT A FORECAST” in a crazy font with blinking letters, yet still get the usual false accusations of hype in here.
CB ain’t just blogging about a storm. 27 and 56 both are saying a chance for a winter storm and shows most of Kentucky involved. Interestingly the other channels are saying for now it is all way west, NW. Very big difference in forecasts.
Will the other mets catch up, or will CB adjust? I do recall the one of the last two big snows CB called it a few days before the other mets and they finally caught up the night before the storm hit.
As long as no big ice to trigger my phobia, I am good with a miss, light stuff, mix, fog, auroras, sleet cold rain, etc 🙂
I wonder if this system will trend east with a bigger hit for Central/Eastern Kentucky into western WV?
The Louisville Mets are still saying rain with a little snow on the back end. They`re saying the impact will be from the water freezing, on roads, from the colder air after the rain ends.
They say the area from Paducah to southern Illinois to central Indiana will get what snow that falls.
All 100% are saying that!
If they all are saying that the mets have to be in the euro camp.
Nope. 27 and 56 are saying winter storm chance and cover most of KY based on their map flow on TV. The other two local channels are saying Euro like the other referred to.
Where’s Schroeder..
I am sure he will give his take early in the am.
I am right here, and all of your comments are great. I choose not to comment on the impending storm, because of the lack of education in weather models. It’s hell being old and stupid.
If the NAM’s ice predictions are even close to correct, there are going to be places that will be without power for weeks. Be careful what you wish for.
This
Well we all have to realize we get what we get ..Chris does a great job… we r due for something big to happen everyone around us have had their share….I’m in northern my 20 minutes from Cincinnati. I’m right in the middle….❄️☃️
Lets hope the Euro holds on to a more amped up solution..At least Western Ky would benefit..
So does the Euro not show precipitation?
Chris just tweeted that the Euro is farther east and more like the NAM with ice and snow.
euro snow http://weather.us/model-charts/euro/819-w-373-n/snow-depth-in/20180113-2100z.html
Wow, it’s completely on the other side of KY compared with the NAM.
Crazy day of model watching..Hard to believe..Guess you’re never out..
by this time tomorrow eastern ky and wv will be in the bullseye
The truth must lie somewhere in the middle of all the model runs. Maybe by tomorrow night Chris will have a better handle on things. I’m going to bed. It’s been an exciting day.
Team #WhatCouldHaveBeen