Late Week Winter Storm THREAT Continues

Good Wednesday, everyone. As we get ready for a couple of mild days across the bluegrass state, a developing winter storm continues to come together for the end of the week. This could bring significant amounts of snow and ice to parts of Kentucky, prompting our Winter Storm THREAT.

We are now within 48 hours of the winter storm impacting Kentucky and the latest models are all trending colder and farther east with the track of the potential storm. While the models all agree on that trend, they still vary in terms of the exact track of the low and how much precipitation it produces.

All of the following images you are about to see are from different computer forecast models. They vary, sometimes greatly, with the impact on any one particular area and will change from run to run. Two things to remember here… Don’t get too attached to specifics or totals of any one model you see, and these are NOT a forecast from me. 🙂

While I’m confident on a winter storm impacting the region, I’m still not confident on the specifics. That said,  I will get a first call map out later today.

My last update showed how the NAM went crazy with the storm and is likely too extreme. However, the new European Model isn’t that far away from it. Watch the transition from rain to freezing rain and sleet, then snow…

That first image is Thursday night, with Saturday afternoon on the final image.

Here’s the freezing rain accumulation map from that run…

And the snow map…

The GFS takes the low toward West Virginia then seems to jump the low east of the mountains. Here’s the transition from rain to sleet and freezing rain then to snow…

The above timeline starts Thursday night and ends Saturday afternoon.

The precipitation on the GFS looks a little suspect and is likely underdone. Here’s what that run shows for ice…

That’s VERY disjointed and suggests the model is having a few issues. The snow map from the same run has a good hit for many, but nothing earth-shattering…

The Canadian seems to have a similar line of thinking with the low going from Tennessee to West Virginia, then jumping east of the mountains…

The Canadian keeps the ice threat in the west and far north…

Compared to the GFS, the Canadian is much snowier, but also seems to be a little disjointed with the precipitation output…

The individual members of the GFS Ensembles show quite a spread in the axis of heavy snowfall…

We still have MANY computer model runs to go through before the event arrives. That means additional changes are a certainty.

We will keep the Winter Storm Threat going until I get a better handle on where the axis of the worst weather sets up. A likely upgrade to Alert status will then follow.

Arctic cold comes in behind the snow with flurries and snow showers likely rolling through Sunday. Another storm system moves in by Monday and Tuesday, potentially bringing another accumulating snowfall…

I will have updates throughout the day, so check back. Make it a good day and take care.


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150 Responses to Late Week Winter Storm THREAT Continues

  1. Dawnp007 says:

    I’m very appreciative of your time, Chris! I cannot help but get all excited!!! I hope the models stay east! Keeping my fingers crossed!!

  2. SHAAK says:

    My thinking is we get something closer to the NAM as far as placement. I think the Euro is way too far East.

  3. Jared from Letcher County says:

    The Euro reminds me of the February 2015 storm.

  4. TeachLou says:

    Thanks for the updates CB! Hopping for some decent snow here in the LOU metro to play in over the long weekend! Now I can go back to sleep. The realization that I am a weather junkie is setting in. ❄️❄️❄️

  5. JJTeach says:

    Wow, did not expect all models to trend in the same direction overnight!
    Today will be a very interesting and fun day of model watching.
    Thanks for all you do to provide us with fantastic and frequent updates Chris!

  6. Prelude says:

    NAM still says shutdown storm

  7. Prelude says:

    Here’s the thing if the NAM at the end of the day still showing shutdown storm it starts getting real concerning, the NAM as the storm gets closer is the favored model.

  8. Trent says:

    Whoever said it stayed west is wrong. It went to the east a tad from its last run

    • Nasdaq says:

      the heavy precip band stayed west, thats what I meant.

      • Msd says:

        Low has ticked east for the past four runs.

      • BubbaG says:

        That’s the whole point all along. A lot of KYight not be part of the main action, since still favors west of I64. Yep, I’m a broken record, but so have the models in that regard. Not seeing snow as the main frozen stuff with this so if pans out, I’m not going to be jealous.

  9. SHAAK says:

    If the ice totals and snow totals are accurate to the NAM, it will be one of the biggest winter storms we’ve ever had.

  10. Prelude says:

    6z GFS is not nearly as strong as the NAM still has Western Kentucky taking the worst of it. I don’t know take the two models and meet somewhere in the middle

  11. Formerly from KY says:

    Later today or tomorrow morning runs of the models will tell the truth about this storm. I think in most part the models will come into agreement about this storm.

  12. Terry says:

    ROLO: I know you have not felt well for a long time now but i, and many others on here, hope to here from you. While this certainly isn’t the best model run solutions for an East/SE KY smack down, I hope you are watching and post, if you are able:)

  13. Blizzardtim says:

    The 6z GFS is sure trying to rain on the ky snowstorm parade! ..and from my backyard in East TN…I’ve watched a foot of snow fall just to my south in and around Atlanta!! Before Christmas a foot of snow at family in VA. Beach and now a snowstorm to my northwest that’s gonna miss me as well..lol..lol..come on spring!!!..lol..lol

  14. Cold Rain says:

    Guess we’ll find out sooner or later if the Euro is still king..A storm under 48 hrs on the Euro use to be a lock..Eastern Ky peeps rejoice..

  15. Braxton says:

    Thanks for the hard work Chris! God Bless!

  16. Spencerlady says:

    At least with the next couple of days with warmer temps, I will try to grill outside.

    Many thanks for all the posts from fellow bloggers! I throughly enjoy reading the responses.

    Mr. Bailey….you are the best!!

  17. Drew says:

    When do the EURO models run again?

  18. Prelude says:

    6z Nam and 6z Gfs

    • Miranda Swafford says:

      Is there a link you can post that’ll help me understand what both models are showing? I live along the Ohio river in NNE KY and I’m keeping an eye on things myself! The Weather Channel is even forecasting now a storm over all of KY which never seems to happen! I’m a little on edge to be honest cause of my paralysis and only having electric heat and heaters!!

  19. Drew says:

    Prelude, do you think this is gonna end up impacting eastern ky like the euro indicated? What are your thoughts?

    • Prelude says:

      Yes eastern Kentucky will be impacted how bad will it get is the question model runs will be interesting today. Models should start coming together today on a better solution.

  20. which way is the wind blowing says:

    It appears to me that the nam & euro are both in agreement about the amount of moisture the storm will bring to the state.

  21. winter lover says:

    I live here in western,ky our mets from Evansville,Ind are saying around 4-6 inches it depends how quickly it turns to snow from ice.

  22. ECMWF says:

    It is amazing that this storm is only a couple days away and there is so much disagreement on placement and intensity. Today’s runs will be key. You will likely start to see the NAM and EURO / GFS and Canadian start to cave to one another. The question is which one will give in.

    • Cold Rain says:

      Use to be the Euro was a lock this close in..It don’t seem the same after the upgrades..so who knows,,Hopefully the GFS increases it totals today to make it really exciting..lol

    • BubbaG says:

      Which usually means folks start cherry picking 😉 Hung my hat on main action west of I64, but not sure it is the type of action folks there would want. Question is how much action/precip will there be? If it is more east than west, that would surprise me.

      CB keeps noting “region” which should indicate even good mets are not to sure yet where it is going to potentially hit, or what type and how much.

  23. Troy says:

    Some region of the state will likely get hammered. I refuse to pick a model or run to fit my preference because we are still too far out for accuracy. Overall, Euro has been by far the most accurate more than 36 hours out since its debut, followed by the Canadian. The NAM tends to be the most accurate within 24-36 hours, and well….the GFS…even a blind squirrel finds a nut on occasion. We should see more clearly by Wed afternoon and night runs.

    • BubbaG says:

      Take the average of the models, but suggest weighting two thirds of the average with the Euro. Still could be wrong of course.

    • Cold Rain says:

      I know everyone in the South east wants a big snow..Me personally hopes it stays west..When you raise your kids and now have too see them on the roads driving in this stuff it becomes nerve wrecking..Is what it is though..

  24. Schroeder says:

    Thanks Chris for all your hard work. The commentators are doing a tremendous job on the discussion. I fall short when the model discussions come out. I am more into logic and observation when making a weather forecast and I’m usually wrong. Looking forward to your forecast for this coming storm.

    • Cold Rain says:

      We all fall short with model discussions..lol..

    • Jamie says:

      I wouldn’t worry about that. Winter setups are so complicated around here that the computers can’t really figure them out. It’s not like we’re up in the snow belt where you can set your watch by the lake effect snows that come through. I appreciate Chris showing the models because I’m a computer guy and am fascinated by that kind of stuff, but I know you have to balance model hype with common sense. My advice to anyone at this point would be to locate your snow shovel and get some groceries JUST IN CASE.

    • Ralph says:

      Thanks. And yes, Shroeder, you always fall short…

  25. Formerly from KY says:

    I think in the end this storm is going to be a disappointment to many snow lovers out there.

  26. Cold Rain says:

    out to 23 looks stronger..29 looks like east..Bet this is another whooper..

  27. BereaSmiles says:

    Yes, we might be disappointed…. but it might also be off the charts! Adventures await.

    The list begins: chop more wood; fill-up kerosene; fill-up bird seed; gas up the truck; chop more wood; fill oil lamps; prepare for a big ole batch of chili!

    Bring it.

  28. Cold Rain says:

    What a sleet fest..Just guessing but looks more west

  29. blueyz79 says:

    Definitely need to see this tomorrow. I was looking on another site I will not name and it was showing rain on Friday. Nothing Saturday and Sunday but cold.

    20% chance tomorrow, 100% Friday, 20% Saturday, and 0% Sunday. I know that is out a few days. But some of this needs a mention of the possibility. We had to travel this past Sunday because of the potential ice. On Saturday people were looking at this and telling us there was nothing. We read here and new of the possibility early, yes only a possibility, and kept and eye on things. We come home Sunday and get here to 30 degree temps. at our place. Ended up having ice on the roads and reading emergency channels saying multiple accidents here or there and to stay off the roads.

    I really do not want to rant. But things like this blog are important. I know they are not forecasts. Sometimes though it IS a forecast and I am not seeing it in places it really should be. So people see this and think things will be fine and head out. Then they get in a mess. Not just apps either. Websites with a forecast for an area from a news source and things like that.

    We are going to do some preps. today just in case. If nothing, great. Although we would like to see some snow. But there is a rising potential, it seems, for a lot of ice and snow. I would rather have some extra gas for the generator just in case we get one of those like we have. And have no power for extended time.

    Thanks Chris, and others who post some model links in the comments, for all this. Very much appreciated and need.

  30. Cold Rain says:

    Looks like western ky and points Ne still get’s nailed with ice and snow..

  31. ECMWF says:

    Nam not as bullish on snow totals. Keeps heaviest axis in west/central ky, but decent snow 2-3 inches for eastern ky

  32. Prelude says:

    12z NAM more realistic but still a very healthy storm. The brunt of the storm still looks to effect western Ky and north central Ky. Eastern Kentucky looks like a 1-4 inch snowfall, western Ky and north central Kentucky 3-6, 4-8 inch snowfall on top of the freezing rain and sleet.

  33. MarkS says:

    Central Ky ladies and gents, don’t get excited, it’s going East, might get an inch or two out of this….

  34. Drew says:

    Do you guys think the European model goes back west and matches the NAM on the afternoon run or do you think it stays east?
    Thoughts?

    • which way is the wind blowing says:

      When all the models come into near agreement, then you will know the cake has been bake.
      We wait now for the GFS run and see how that model is trending.
      The nam for the most part has been consistent.

  35. Cold Rain says:

    tt shows more snow..Don’t know why..Different math i guess

  36. ECMWF says:

    It will be interesting. Nam placement last few runs has been pretty consistent. Today run of Euro is big. If it stays east, there is probably something to it. If it jogs back west, chalk last night run up as a fluke.

  37. B H says:

    Maybe Chris can make out what the models are saying. Will be waiting on his update.

  38. Drew says:

    When will CB give his first call map?

  39. A-Rod says:

    I just hope this storm doesn’t fall apart and go around us this time. If it does then I’m ready for spring to come on and get here. Better go outside and do a snow dance!❄ ❄ ❄

  40. Zach says:

    Yeah, I believe the models are / will inch back West to where it was before last night.

  41. BubbaG says:

    Hence “regional” 😉 Anyone implying a storm for areas beyond west of I64 is borderline almost misleading IMO. Presuming this expected system pans out in the first place.

    Though not a magic line, overall seems mainly:

    West I64 = Storm
    East I64 = Advisory

    Again, if it pans out.

    • ECMWF says:

      I agree, but if Euro holds course things may change. Has quite a bit of support from ensembles. Almost 50/50 in terms of west/east placement. It being the Euro, it holds some weight, esp if todays run keeps something similar. Although as of now, I agree with you about 85% lol.

      • BubbaG says:

        There will be some blend, but the point is this does not seem likely to be split east and west, but more west. CB seems indicating the same in tweets.

        Would be real surprised if I75 is part of a storm.

  42. ECMWF says:

    By the way, all the pivotal weather maps are free. Has GFS, NAM, Canadian,and other short range models and ensembles.

  43. BubbaG says:

    Still the same, baby, baby still the same! Bob Seger sang it. This is mainly a west I64 event and has stayed consistent, in spite of selective model syndrome 😉

    Bets on potential:

    East I64 = Advisory
    West I64 = Storm

  44. BubbaG says:

    Sorry- this is a shorter duplicate of an above post. First one said there was a communication error. Was too lazy to retype it all again.

  45. Joyce says:

    When does the new maps come out?

  46. Formerly from KY says:

    12z GFS is showing a much weaker Low.

  47. Virgil E. says:

    Team #WhatCouldHaveBeen

  48. Prelude says:

    12z Gfs still says Western Kentucky north central Kentucky still gets the brunt of the storm

  49. Formerly from KY says:

    I’m Leaning GFS.

  50. Stormtracker_WV says:

    Why is everyone describing things as “west” and “east of I-64”? Geographically, I-64 runs in a line from east to west for hundreds of miles, so that doesn’t make much sense. Describing things as “north” or “south” of I-64 would work…are ya’ll confusing I-64 with I-65 or even I-75? Describing things as “west” or “east” of I-65 & I-75 would make sense, just sayin’

  51. Drew says:

    Let’s make this fun!! Cast your vote on whether the EURO stays east or moves back west on the next run. Reply east or west below!

  52. Prelude says:

    12z Canadian says the brunt of the storm western Ky and north central Ky. Basically the NAM GFS and Canadian agree

  53. Cold Rain says:

    Don’t think it’s about east/west..Just wondering if it keeps high snow totals or falls in line with the GFS with smaller amounts..

  54. Rolo says:

    Better start focusing on high water for the VIEWING area. This is a couple inches snow at best for the Viewing area. when I say Viewing area I mean the WKYT and WYMT and the blog in general I k ow that the blog has exploded over the past decade to include peeps from other areas, but the fact is Central and Eastern and Se,Southern Ky are the coverage area. That said my comments are as of now as to what I’m seeing from the models, the NAM is useless until under 48 hours meaning tonite runs if it’s still showing then u can then say it might be on to something. can we still get a thumper like euro was showing up why sure, but the past 15 years has showed that the trends are way against the euro and NaM every holding there serve. We will see though. Let’s see the evening run of the nam and all three and we will know for sure. I’m like John CHUCKY Gruden. IM BAAAAAACkkkkkkkkkk!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Bringing it OLD ScHOOL!!! hey you k ow business is picking up though when Rolo has Rolled in. come to Redneck Bunker Handicapping on Facebook and like my page for my latest takes from deep inside the bunker and free money too. Love all you all!!! But love my OG Bloggers the best the ones that got this bad boy started in the early days, the ones that pulled a Many a late nite drinking coffee, measuring snow giving reports way before there was Twitter, Facebook etc. we built this city baby with Bailey boy as the Leader!! He left the state but he never left us, he stuck with us thru the skinny years until WKYT put their tail between their legs and did the right thing and brought our favorite son back home!!!

  55. Troy says:

    I’m basically in agreement with some of the comments….lets see what Euro shows (I’m going with the Euro). It’s too far out for accuracy from the NAM, the Canadian is usually quite good but hasn’t been this year, and I wouldn’t trust the GFS within a 5 hour window (unless ALL other models agree)…

    • ECMWF says:

      Agree. Even though Euro is only model showing an Central/Eastern KY hit, it holds merit because it is the Euro. It is the only model I would say could possibly be right even though the other models are against it. Now if the Euro sorts in the line with GFS/Canadian, then I would say the track is locked in with smaller shifts over the next 48 hours.

    • BubbaG says:

      This puppy is mainly west & NW. Question is when will CB stop wording “regional” and call it for what it seems- A storm probably not for his main market demographic. They can handle it! Not really 😉

      Maybe CB does not want to dash hopes yet, so calling it a regional storm. If this has a lot of ice, the snow is no good for fun in the teen temps anyway and could be power issues, so probably a good thing to not be in the storm part of the state- er., region 🙂

  56. Debbie says:

    ROLO!!! Welcome back, buddy! Hope you’re doing well? The blog is now COMPLETE! I miss the old bunch, too -i.e.; Vinny, Marsha, etc., I think Crystal might still be here, and I reckon MJ went on to greener pastures? Nonetheless, all is good now that we’re back on the “Rolocoaster”!

  57. Janet says:

    Rolo!! Its good to see you back. I am one of those who always reads the blog but never says anything, but I had to sign in and hey to Rolo.

  58. Cold Rain says:

    Just wonder if that’s Rolo..If so he must of took typing lesson’s..

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