Good afternoon, folks. It’s a gorgeous day for many in the bluegrass state, but that changes in a hurry over the next few days. We continue with our Winter Storm Threat for much of the region, but I wanted to try and get more specific with the greatest areas of impact.
Let me start by saying this is still a fluid setup, with the track of the low and precipitation amounts still in question. Here’s my current thinking…
I will be updating that map, making changes as I get more confident in precipitation amounts and the exact track of our storm.
A First Call For Snow/Icefall will be coming your way on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm.
Let’s do a quick check of the midday model runs to get you caught up on the current model trends.
The NAM takes one low toward West Virginia, then develops another low just east of the mountains, riding it up the east slopes of the Appalachians…
The NAM has had some pretty big swings in precipitation amounts and placement with the last few runs. The 6z run of the NAM showed a ton of ice…
It also produced a crushing band of snow…
The 12z run didn’t have as much precipitation. Here’s the Ice forecast…
And the snow forecast…
The higher resolution 3km NAM only goes out through 60 hours (7pm Friday), but shows a VERY healthy band of snow and ice sweeping across the state…
The GFS is starting to get better looking with the precipitation shield, but is still a bit disjointed…
GFS Ice Forecast…
GFS Snow Forecast…
The Canadian Model takes a slightly stronger low into West Virginia and then northeast, giving a much more solid band of snow and ice behind it…
Here’s the Ice forecast from the Canadian…
And the snow forecast from the same model…
I will get that First Call map out on WKYT at 4, then update it throughout the evening and the next few days. Yes, I will post it here on KWC, too later today.
Make it a good one and take care.
The tri-state dome holding strong…
Lol we can’t get a snow!! Even if I called jb hunt to deliver 4,000 loads of snow to us they would be stopped at Huntington wv and diverted around ashland
Oh it is going to finally snow, Rollo is back!!
Hope no Ice though, had enough of that to last a lifetime in 2009.
Thanks for all you time Chris. It is very much appreciated.
Told my hubby to check the snow blower tonight….need to be ready for whatever comes our way.
Thanks, Chris!
It is a great compliment to Mr. Bailey that so many of us are addicted to this website to see the latest, greatest computer runs, commentary, etc. Thanks for all the charts.
Not as “fun” though for us in CB’s TV viewing area, since probably not in the storm 😉 Seriously though- Ice mixed with snow and teen temperatures is not fun. More like cement. Hopefully not a power outage event for folks west of us 🙂
Treat the models from previous days not as Lucy’s football, but a warm soft cute puppy to cuddle. Ice & snow is a nasty mix.
Well-said Tom, thanks for this! Can’t thank CB enough for all that he does!
I knew this storm was too good to be true! It’s taken a westward track now I feel bummed! I didn’t want the ice but the snow would be amazing! I live in Lewis County Ky and it seems like it’s another bust! Looking forward to the other updates to see how well it holds together! Thanks for the update CB keep up the great work!!
Looking at the maps central Ohio is going to be enjoying the brunt of the snow.
Bring it!
Well at this point Chris moved my area in the Risk area about a county away from the High risk area. There are still to many ways this thing can go judging by the models.
Thanks for the update, Chris! Still hoping southeastern Kentucky can see some snow out of this… I still check the blog often, even though I rarely comment anymore due to… circumstances. Congrats on the upcoming anniversary!
What upcoming Anniversary
The blog turns 10
14 counting the TG days.
I should’ve known better than to get my hopes up…
Well, looks like it going west for most of KY. On to next weeks storm!
Can’t wait to see the EURO.
Bummer, looks like the hopes of getting dumped on are fading for Central Kentucky.
Ice & snow with lower temperature is not the kind of “dump” I would like anyway. A winning miss!
I totally agree! Ice and snow mixed would be a nightmare.
It looks like the intensity of the storm has backed off. Can we say it’s a bust yet? I don’t want it to ruin my weekend plans
If it can just move to the east just a little bit ! I would like Mercer and Boyle in the snow zone !
For our little part of the world around Monticello Thelma Lou says nothing to see here.
Will this be a shutdown snow anyone?
Bummer, it looks like the chances for Central Kentucky to get dumped on are quickly fading.
We did not really seem to have a chance unless we cherry picked models and go by the Monday & Tuesday ones. That said, 56 implied a chance at 10PM for a storm in the Lexington area, but that seemed to take the meaning of chance to the far level.
I would like some snow but no east shift in that ice if it happens. I really do not wish that on anyone. That would be a disaster with the snow and cold on top of it. This close it seems like there is increasing confidence on one of those types of events most do not want.
I just pray everyone can stay safe if this event pans. Really looking forward to the next few updates. Thanks Chris.
Am I looking at the maps wrong? When did 2 – 4 inches of snow start qualifying as a Winter Storm??
I could be wrong but I think it is the wind and ice together with the snow
Chris is going to update again later in the evening. Those lines can shift one way or the other some. That is his thinking as of now.
The main models keep tweaking the solution west. Seems Lucy has claimed too many victims already and she should put her football up 😉
Thanks Chris!! I’m hoping it will come back eastward and we will get some good snow in Somerset. My 5 year old is dying for it to snow! Thanks for the update! Can’t wait for the next one! 🙂
NWS in Jackson forecasted less than an inch for my area nothing expected so no disappointment there.
blah blah… another system another disappointment for us in Central Ky. Nothing to see here unless you live close to the Ohio River or along I-65 west. Like Jason said on to the next. If there’s going to be a next.
I have finally figured out how to check the GFS on model runs. Would anyone care to explain how to watch see the EURO models? Or can I access those?
Here’s the free one..Now if you want the real purty maps subscribe to wx.bell
oops..lol
http://weather.us/model-charts/euro/kentucky/snow-depth-in/20180115-0300z.html
Nothing is a bust because nothing has been forecast yet….just shared models
Chris said earlier that there could be thunder storms in some places ahead of the cold coming. But he hasn’t said much more about it. If you get a thunder storm to roll your way while its snowing you can get hammered. Plus see lighting while its snowing, I’ve seen it several times living in Southern Ohio. Also there is something a lot of you young folks haven’t seen and that is snow rollers. I’ve seen them 2 or 3 times in my life time. They roll up and have a hole that goes all the way through them. Some of them get pretty big.
The new euro (to me) looks slightly weaker and holds on the east course. Ideas?
That’s what I’m seeing looks like it’s heading more to the coast and much weaker than the other model runs.
It looks like it has shifted West a little bit to me
Exactly, Ive been preaching that, and I hope Im right haha
Adair Co. now in the risk area. That stinks. We want where the good stuff is at.
In other words Western Ky and Ohio get bopped….viewing area gets zilch. Wake me in April……
Ah, I’m so disheartened! I’m needing this baby to trend east! I’m not giving up, yet. Fingers still crossed that my neck of the woods here in Jackson Co. will get a good snow thumping!!
Euro holds course in a way…weaker however
Euro stays East but much weaker. Is this a sign that other models may start trending eastward?
Meanwhile, we are crushing record highs today in southeast Ky.. Looks like we may get into the 70s in spots. Man does it feel good!
67 in my backyard so it’s possible.
Team #WhatCouldHaveBeen
Yea, this storm is looking to be a shadow of its former self.
Yeah, not nearly as impressive. For BG, right now, it looks like .50″ of ice with *maybe* 2″-4″ of snow. That`s not too exciting.
This seems to be looking more and more like a WWA event instead of WSW.
Perhaps rename Prince style: Advisory Formerly Known as Storm 😉
We can either laugh at the models, or they laugh at us.
Very true. 😉 If the NAM starts trending much less with the totals in the next few runs, then I better get my towel ready to throw.
CB tweated just now to keep the theme going Either he knows something else, or the last few minutes of the Cats game affected him 😉
lol. Where did he tweet that?
Hour ago said the Euro was wider spread with ice & snow shield. CB is like the Honey Badger- He don’t give a snow. 😉
These runs just seem weird.. Losing QPF which a storm streaming up moisture from the gulf.. Just doesn’t make sense whatsoever!
As CB tweeted earlier, is it possible for these totals to continue to increase?
Huntington/Ashland area? Always the bridesmaid….sigh…
Looks like West Virginia is going to get missed again. I am feeling very left out. I want snow and lots of it.
Lunch is over. My wife fixes the best salads ever. In looking further at the euro it shows a forecasted barometric pressure reading of 950…that’s not a bomb of a storm but it’s certainly enough to give a 2-6 inch snowfall across much of Ky….and WV. There are reasons why it is best to use the AVERAGE of models rather than one particular model or one particular model run (like last night’s nam). Chris let’s use see models which are too good to be true…and we have done this long enough we ought to know they’re too good to be true. It’s one thing to get excited about potential…another to be realistic. After all, we don’t have many two foot snowfalls in Ky!
Interesting run of Euro. East, less QPF. Follows suit of less moisture but not west.
I’m throwing that run in the trash… Waiting on the NAM and 3k NAM tomorrow morning!
That’s two in a row with a much farther east track. Not much to see here either way unless this thing blows up.
Advisory Formerly Known as Storm. Their hit single Purple Cold Rain 🙂
At what times does the NAM run?
It starts around 2:00 CT 3:00 ET.
4 runs per day
The 6pm should comes in around 3:30 pm
The midnight run about 9:30 pm
The 6am 3:30 a
Noon at about 9:30a
“The Weather Channel” mentions Blizzard.
I think that was a Dairy Queen commercial 🙂
Hahaha now that’s funny.
Do not watch TWC anymore since they started naming everything that comes along.
You think they will name this one Chris?
It has a name. Hunter. Just like I’ll be huntin for the snow in SE Ky
The euro is by itself
Hey I live in Louisville I will take any accumulation more than an inch.
That would be more than I have seen in almost two years.
Where is Prelude and his analysis 😀
I agree.. wondering where Prelude is as well
I say sunny with a high around 80 lol
SENSATIONALISM!
I like the GFS and Canadian for the most part both those models have been fairly consistent. The NAM is over doing the precipitation it has that bias it’s been consistent but overdone. The Euro I’m beginning to think is in La La land. In my opinion Euro hasn’t shown much if any consistency.
Just give me a week of today’s weather and you can have the 1-2 inches of snow.
This 🙂
Louisville Mets are either strangely quiet or all over the place in their predictions. At this point I am prepared for anything.
I liked that map this morning showing the Huntington tri-state area with 12 inches. But I know that was a dream. That being said, I would settle for something on the order of 3 or 4 inches. That would exceed my total from last year and so far this year. I hope this doesn’t turn out to be another clipper/northwest flow type weak system.
TWC saying 3-5 inches for the Ashland area Friday night. Interested to see CB’s first call map
ALL HAIL THE DOME UGH
Will this precipitation be coming from the west or sout? Lots of times, SE Ky gets dumped on when they’re from the south.
South, not Sout. Lol
The computer model pages should have in there header.
( For entertainment purposes only.) Lol.
Ok accuweather just moved area of significant snowfall east by at least 70 miles now I’m a little confused
I like that move.
While this could still be our heaviest snowfall since Jan 2016 for some locations, some of the expected snow totals have come down some ( better sampling) and may be affected by a slower transition to all snow because of track of low introducing freezing rain and some sleet. I’m still expecting Winter Storm Warning criteria for at least Louisville for possible icing and snowfall combined. Interestingly, while some will be enjoying very mild weather Thursday, Winter Storm Watch products will already be out for Fri/Sat time frame.
Ice might be more than expected in the mix as well. None the less, anybody that gets the main stuff when the colder temps settle in are dealing with white concrete. Not many snow men with this stuff. Heck, snowballs would be lethal weapons 😉 Really.
NAM rolling in.. Only at hour 39 now… I can say the precip is back.. Like I said I’m not buying the EURO.. losing precip with gulf moisture streaming in..
Care to post a snowfall total map when it runs?
Sure I can post EARLS map.
Not finished running, but more west than the last run
It’s farther west but back with big precip across a big swath of KY, with west getting absolutely hammered
Winter Storm Watch is about to go out- per Louisville met Brian Goode
Annnnd Chris just said the same thing. Oh yeahhhhh
Winter storm watch has just been issue here in western,ky
NAM up to hour 51, about 3pm Eastern Time Friday, already shows huge amounts of slow and sleet. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018011018/namconus_asnow_seus_18.png
*snow, not slow, haha
Yeah, Nam’s still bringing the goods for western and northern KY
Perhaps “bad goods” is a more apt term.
The NAM has stayed basically on the same course.
It is not playing games.
So I am suppose to be coaching volleyball in Nashville this weekend. Teams generally travel Friday afternoon and into the evening. I have already communicated the possible storm with my parents. Several have responded with the new said it would be that bad. I just sent them all a link to the KWC. LOL
As a northern kentuckian, I would absolutely love this: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=seus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017030818&fh=84&xpos=0&ypos=621
I like the path of the storm the NAM is predicting.
I cannot accept the amount of snow accumulations.
The barometric pressure is going have to be extremely low.
But hey I not an expert by no means.
Man..If Nam is just half right Western ky will be in the dark ages for a while..Up to 2 feet in spots..with copious amounts of ice..Amazing
It ain’t right it’s way overdone
So you hope…… 😉 🙂
im trying to be number 100!!!
all I know is let it snow baby!
Come on, BF! You ain’t a Browns fan! This might not be the system to root for. Not looking like a fun snowman event.
Let the ICE go. It’s ok,
Jesus…If that model verifies Henderson KY and Evansville will be buried.
Yeah, it looks like 24-30″ of sleet and snow there on this run.
Through 3pm Saturday http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018011018/namconus_asnow_seus_26.png
Well, since this event is not really much for CB’s TV market, I think it should be with a disclaimer 🙂 😉
B, on that map above. Alot of ky is snow…Richmond would be in it!!
I was just trying to put a Brown’s reference 🙂
Bubba bangs on the ice drums more than anybody else here.
Browns Bengals….we both stink…at least Cleveland can can count on snow
Hoping the whole thing misses Central Kentucky.
The NAM goes HAM.
Lots of ice too
Oh wow, EKY gets 1 inch…ugh…
enjoy the blizzard western ky!
Whuu? This ain’t no snowman snow. If pans out, more like a big iceman with snowballs 😉
NWS in Paducah said only 1-2 inches of snow for western Ky.
Rodger lives near Henderson. He’d be happy with a fraction of that, which is probably what will happen. Thoooooo … he did get 23″ in his backyard from the Dec 2004 pre-Christmas bomb with a similar setup. Rodger in Dodger
It is currently 69 degrees in Teays Valley WV. Don’t know if that’s a record. Probably not since 70 degree or higher is not uncommon in the Huntington/Charleston area in the Winter.
Anybody that roots for the NAM to be right needs to be put in Eastern State. That said most of the VIewing area going see a sharp cutoff here. That said this is a system that screams BUST all over it as far as models go. Meaning any bit of a change with the track can change the cold air we’re it sets up and could move the winter weather east or west. Remember the 98 I think dusting. just saying Bailey not upgraded to ALERT speaks volumes. Maybe it’s because the viewing/blog area not looking good for 4 plus inches on the models.
I’d be willing to bet that many in our viewing area will get 4+
😉
Of ice….. 😉
Looks like Letcher County isn’t getting much at all
I used to live in Henderson. I moved back to Louisville in 2003 so I missed out on the 2004 Snowstorm. I think I’m Louisville we got about 3 inches of sleet and 10 inches of snow on top of that. I remember Milltown IN which is just west of Louisville got over 30 inches of snow.
Looks like Letcher County isn’t going to get much
NWS out of Wilmington Ohio just issued a WSW for parts of Indiana and Kentucky just west of Cincinnati. Reading the forecast discussion, they say they doubt this system will meet warning criteria for the rest of the forecast area, but will likely issue WWA’s. They have dropped the snow amounts as well. Guess we’ll just have to wait and see how this one pans out!
CB still keeps saying Region…. What up with dat?
Central Indiana to the southern border of Tennessee. Someone in there is going to see winter this weekend. I have my snow shovel ready here in central ky but I’m not making a bread n milk run.
Didn’t someone say that the Euro is the most consistent? That may be why? It has it right smack dab in the middle of Kentucky.
Seems need to be on other side of 64 and 65 to be in this. West NW, but I’ve been saying that since Monday night.
Any new info? I’m starved for information.
18z GFS 1-3 inches.
Of rain
Didn’t see a 1st call all I seen was model maps
Cause it’s a regional thing 😉
He tweeted GFS keeps moving heaviest snow
Gfs has heaviest snow now in ne ky LOL
Link?
Right now the NAM seems to be the most consistent. Doesn`t mean it`s not consistently wrong though.
GFS is garbage I think.
Within 48 hours the NAM is better right? We are at that threshold.
The NAM is consistent every run it seems like. Why are the other models struggling and jump all over the place? Is the NAM onto something the others are not or just being overdone too much?
1-4 inches tops out of this storm. The NAM is way over done.
Besides its usual bias of overdoing precip you think?
If a model predicts 30 inches of snow, nobody wants to hear it. Odds favor it not happening, sure, but who in their right mind would ever forecast that much? Did they forecast 22 inches of snow in western Kentucky in 2004 two days before the event?
I love those snow totals…hate the ice ones.
But even 20 inches of heavy wet snow can cause dangerous conditions for roofs.
Look up the December 22, 2004 storm from western Kentucky. It has snowed that much before.
It`s strange. Basically most the Short range models are in agreement with something along the lines of what the NAM is showing (some more robust than others); however, the Medium range (Euro, GEM, GFS) seem completely lost.
I think the NAM is on to something.
I personally think so. Maybe not quite as robust, but I think it has a much better handle on the system. At least its consistency and support from the other short range models would suggest that. IMO
Three runs in a row with high precip output somewhere means the NAM is catching on to a piece of energy somewhere that is enhancing precipitation. They’re calling for a strengthening low to move northeast, yet buying into the models that call for less precipitation. The only way this can happen is if thunderstorms to the south rob us of our precipitation…..which has happened before. We’ll need to keep an eye on the severe potential to our south to see if this is a limiting factor.
Probably high reflectivity from sleet pellets mixing in, mistaking it for very heavy precipitation thus overdoing QPF
Yes gfs run is garbage
Getting worse all the time yet most weather apps are religious by it:P
I fully agree GFS run complete garbage. In the words of Matt Hardy I give you this…. http://media1.tenor.com/images/c7e66a3efb9c5a53e988bca97df8f2d4/tenor.gif?itemid=7559396
Lol
FOX19 Cincinnati has totals. GFS near 6.8 inches where I live. EURO near 5 inches. NAM near 16 inches. RPM Model was near 7 inches. Does Chris use the RPM model? What model is that? It’s used all the time I hear on the local weather here.
Looks like every met in the Ville has a different slant on things. One says the worst is NW, one says N, one says N/NE and I gave up on Eddie Munster when he began the forecast by slamming “model pushers” (or “goons” as his morning buddy called them this a.m.) I think we should just give the models a few more runs to see if we get any agreement at all, or just do like everyone else here with Doctorates in the AASM (“Armchair Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology”) and offer up our usual outlooks and wait for Chris to be right! Sounds good to me!
Yeah. Louisville is usually all over it, but this time they all over the place.
As are the models.
Eddie Munster went a full minute on just bashing other Mets instead of trying to convey his own forecast, unbelievable. What kind of producers does WDRB have to let him run his mouth off like that it has no benefit to the viewer
and forget the morning guy he’s just a puppet which is why Jeremey left
LOL@ the GFS
http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018011018/072/sn10_acc.us_ov.png
Don’t have a clue on whats going to happen..But the Euro came in flatter,less amped..Now the GFS is less amped also..Trend maybe??Not a good day if one wants lots of snow..Suspect the Nam will come around to it’s big brother soon..Hope i’m wrong..Would love to see the Nam get one right..Would rather see someone in Ky get mauled than on the coast..
I guess we head to the 5th set of model returns.
I will be back to around 9:30 to see if the nam can hold serve.
This is what I think of the GFS model…..http://media1.tenor.com/images/c7e66a3efb9c5a53e988bca97df8f2d4/tenor.gif?itemid=7559396
TWC says Ashland gets 3-5 inches. What models are they using?
Euro I think.
What are the next models to run?
All of them at midnight. GFS, Euro, NAM, Canadian. The key player will be the Euro to see what it does with the main axis of snow.
Lol. If it doesn’t show what we want to see throw it out. I will wait on the next Euro since it seems to be the most accurate most of the time. I’m afraid that it’s going to be a bunch of hype over nothing if it trends the way it is going .. let’s hope the precipitation amounts increase regardless of track. That’s what seems to be going down the most according to the Euro and the GFS and if that happens it want matter what track it takes. 2-4 inches in the sweet spot of it and around 1 everywhere else.
Chris, please don’t starve us. We need an update.
He is live on the TV broadcast between 5-7pm, usually updates around 7:30 or so.
What’s the difference? Seems the bog remains in selective model syndrome. The one that is still storm wins!
^^^^^This^^^^^
If it’s only going to snow 1-2 inches and less than .10″ of ice, they need to stop throwing the word storm around on television and hyping things up that aren’t going to happen.
However, being in this situation before they’re safe to start with lower amounts–since there’s little room to go back down, and you usually only go up as time closes in. Doesn’t always work that way, but that’s the safer bet.
Evil dry slot starting to show up too…in a flatter storm, I’m not buying into that solution as much.
I hope someone here gets a nice snowstorm. I haven’t lived in Kentucky for 3 years but still follow this blog every winter. Colorado doesn’t have a met like Chris that I’ve found so have to come here to get my fix. Lol.
Some Mets in Cincinnati area is saying we might get from 5 – 8″ or possibly 12 – 18″ of snow……………………BRING IT!!!!!! Models keeps looking favorable for this storm to produce major a snow. Saying WINTER STORM WARNINGS likely for areas around Cincy.
Hype train