Good afternoon, folks. It’s a gorgeous day for many in the bluegrass state, but that changes in a hurry over the next few days. We continue with our Winter Storm Threat for much of the region, but I wanted to try and get more specific with the greatest areas of impact.

Let me start by saying this is still a fluid setup, with the track of the low and precipitation amounts still in question. Here’s my current thinking…

I will be updating that map, making changes as I get more confident in precipitation amounts and the exact track of our storm.

A First Call For Snow/Icefall will be coming your way on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm.

Let’s do a quick check of the midday model runs to get you caught up on the current model trends.

The NAM takes one low toward West Virginia, then develops another low just east of the mountains, riding it up the east slopes of the Appalachians…

The NAM has had some pretty big swings in precipitation amounts and placement with the last few runs. The 6z run of the NAM showed a ton of ice…

It also produced a crushing band of snow…

The 12z run didn’t have as much precipitation. Here’s the Ice forecast…

And the snow forecast…

The higher resolution 3km NAM only goes out through 60 hours (7pm Friday), but shows a VERY healthy band of snow and ice sweeping across the state…

The GFS is starting to get better looking with the precipitation shield, but is still a bit disjointed…

GFS Ice Forecast…

GFS Snow Forecast…

The Canadian Model takes a slightly stronger low into West Virginia and then northeast, giving a much more solid band of snow and ice behind it…

Here’s the Ice forecast from the Canadian…

And the snow forecast from the same model…

I will get that First Call map out on WKYT at 4, then update it throughout the evening and the next few days. Yes, I will post it here on KWC, too later today.

Make it a good one and take care.