Wednesday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the developing winter storm set to impact our weather Thursday night through Saturday morning.

Let’s hit the high notes and get you caught up on where things stand as of now.

A Winter Storm Watch is out for the western half of Kentucky…

Expect that to be extended eastward later tonight and Thursday.

The European Model has a quicker transition to ice and snow Thursday night into early Friday, with snow taking over through Friday night…

Here’s the Ice forecast from that run…

The snowfall from that run is mainly across central and eastern Kentucky…

The GFS keeps showing something a little different from run to run. While it has the theme of the setup correct…

It seems to be choppy with the precipitation and placement. Here’s the ice forecast from the GFS…

The GFS snowfall looks… Odd…

Our WSI provided GFS Ensembles snowfall forecast is targeting much of the region…

The NAM continues to be the most prolific precipitation producer with this storm…

The NAM has a tendency to overdo precipitation amounts, but it did perform best with the east coast winter storm last week. Here’s the Ice forecast from this run of the NAM…

The snowfall from this run…

You probably noticed I did NOT put together a fist call map on WKYT. That’s partially because I ran out of time due to a work meeting I forgot about. But, it’s also because I didn’t feel totally comfortable with doing so. I’m never going to just put one together for the sake of putting one together.

I should put one together for tonight’s 11.

Enjoy your evening and take care.

This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

119 Responses to Wednesday Evening Update

  1. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Looking forward to your thoughts. Now it is wait and see….

  2. A-Rod says:

    I sure hope the NAM is wrong about the amount of ice. That would be ugly.

  3. TriState Mike says:

    Thanks for the hard work Chris. We’re gonna have to upgrade your server. It was temporarily unavailable due to so many people trying to view your update lol.

  4. Sally Jane says:

    Thanks for all your hard work, Chris.

  5. Ren says:

    Thanks, Chris! We appreciate ya.

  6. SHAAK says:

    Why did the NAM I looked at earlier show about 10 inches in Bardstown, but Chris’ has 2inches? Did I read it wrong?

    • Prelude says:

      NAM has a bias of exaggeration at times with precipitation. Also realize that the NAM and the GFS that is a total combo of sleet freezing rain and snow when you see total precipitation. So let’s say the NAM is correct with 10 inches that’s not all snow that 10 inch total includes sleet, freezing rain and snow. Sooo then a meteorologist will try to figure out how much will be freezing rain sleet or snow. That’s when it gets technical a meteorologist will look at different soundings that the models are showing, how much warm air is aloft different temperatures right above the surface and profiles. A meteorologist has to try to figure out how quick the transition will be from rain to freezing rain to sleet and eventually to snow. Tough job especially if a meteorologist is in a large viewing market if Bardstown getting snow Elizabethtown could be getting sleet or vice versa.

  7. Jordan mitchell says:

    What about Eddyville???

  8. Drew says:

    I sure hope the NAM is wrong. That gives Ashland nothing! Some of the other models look decent for Ashland. Anyone wanna take a bold stab at accumulation in Ashland?

  9. Miss Kate says:

    Bless it! I need a drink after looking at all those different models! Good luck with that snowfall map!

  10. Cold Rain says:

    Didn’t someone use to post in here with a yawn though what’s killing these systems..Northern stream overwhelming everything or what..Stuck in some kind of rut apparently..

  11. Bubba says:

    Euro & NAM combo seemed the best fit, but I suggest now taking the average of them all. It will still be wrong, but at least a shot of being in the ballpark. The wild card is cold air and the “bleh” inducing warm air aloft. All the models have their own ways of forecasting how the cold air creates frozen stuff.

    I expected the models to start (at least slightly) directionally conforming to the Euro and NAM average, but not happened yet….. Good luck calling this, CB! Anybody thinking they can peg this mix, more power to you! 🙂

  12. Drew says:

    Is it common for the euro, NAM, and gfs to be so different at this point in the game?

    • Bubba says:

      Seems they should at least start showing directionally similar patterns flows, even if still many miles away in their locations. Example is I expected the GFS runs to start shifting west NW, even if slightly so. Could be the real warm air knocking things for a tizzy.

  13. Troy says:

    Only thing certain at this point is that the TVA and LG&E/KU are going to be busy bees with those power lines in the coming weeks…and yes, with those potential ice totals, I’m very happy with the usual rinse and repeat flash flood warnings and backside flurries here in SE KY instead of a WSW.

  14. Crystal In Pikeville says:

    Thanks Chris

  15. The Hill says:

    I haven’t seen Jeff post on here in awhile. I was hoping to get his take if he thinks school districts will start calling off school for Friday based on the forecast.

    • Jeff says:

      Hey Hill! I think from Meade County west will call school off for Friday morning. Jefferson will try to tough it out and will either dismiss early or wait really late to call it. Jefferson, Bullitt, Hardin, Hart and east will be in a pickle trying to make that decision. Fayette schools will have early dismissal. Really curious to see what Jefferson does though. If the time frame keeps getting moved up they may just cancel based on a forcast. Been burnt like that before though when nothing really fell.
      Well, that’s my prediction. Let’s see if it waffles like the models! Would love to see some overall agreement. Maybe tomorrow!

      • Rachel says:

        Agreed — but honestly, as A JCPS teacher, they haven’t had a single snow day this year… I’m thinking just bite the bullet. You never know what can happen, but traffic in this city is nuts on a good day.

  16. Todd says:

    This is a hard forecast, thanks Chris for not jumping the gun until things look more possible.

  17. Julie says:

    Thanks for all your hard work Chris! Watching for your first call snowfall map! I’m not in WKYT viewing area so waiting for you to post it on the blog later!

  18. rolo says:

    good work Bailey Boy. this system going weaker as it we get closer, which is a odd turn. I think a general 2-4 inch snow is a good bet for Central and SE Ky. if any slowing in the track there could be more. there be some moderate snow when it does switch over but right now it only be for a few ours.

  19. Ecmwf says:

    I would love a good snow as much as the next person but I feel tracking the storm is half the excitement. The highs and lows of run to run. It’s like a young love story.

  20. Dee says:

    Thanks Chris! I vote let’s all take a nice, long nap and refocus tomorrow evening!!! Hoping for a nice snow but it’s only mid-January and I’m not giving up just yet!!!

  21. rolo says:

    OHIO RIVER COUNTYS down to Paducah 3-6 as I think if anyones gets BIGGER TOTALS it will be father east if the lows strengthens and slows down as it rounds the bend on later models.

  22. TeachLou says:

    Thanks for all you do CB! it will be ntsresting to see what happens with this storm. As a teacher we will have a long weekend, and would love to have lots of snow to play in! ❄️⛄️❄️⛄️

  23. B H says:

    Boy haven’t we been on a roller coaster ride for the past few days with these computer models. If we had taken all the thoughts and input applied to this blog think of what we could have created with all these brilliant minds. lol.

  24. Joyce says:

    I am hoping it doesn’t start till the evening Friday as I have a dr appointment in Lexington at 430 on Friday. I do not want to try and drive home on icy roads.

  25. Mark513 says:

    How long does it take for the NAM to finish usually?

  26. Ecmwf says:

    Mam caving to euro

  27. Drew says:

    Link to snowfall totals on latest NAM?

  28. Drew says:

    I’m liking the new NAM!!!

  29. SHAAK says:

    I think it’s fair to throw out the “B” word. NAM really lost some steam on snow amounts.

  30. Terry says:

    Overall, the trends are weaker on most model runs compared to earlier NAM runs but the coverage is better. Andy, Troy and other SE KY folks….we nay not have to ‘wish cast’ just to reach an inch for our season-to-date totals by Saturday:P

  31. rolo says:

    well NaM over past years was the 48 hours and in model, well it coming in to my thoughts heavier WINTER WEATHER father east.

  32. Tom says:

    The Euro wins this round over the NAM…will it hold on its next run? I suspect so…we’re getting real close to the event…less unknowables at this stage. Hurrah for eastern Ky! I do think the precip totals with the latest NAM make much better sense than some of the nonsense in the earlier NAM runs.

  33. Chris Mercer says:

    Meanwhile in the current tropics of Central Kentucky, Lexington set a record high today of 65 degrees. Felt great! Probably going to get another record tomorrow. Too bad the snow is going to crash the party on Friday.

    • Shawon says:

      “Covington” tied a record high of 61 degrees set back in 1975 and previous years (yes, low bar to reach, but still).

      My buddy Heat Miser still doing his thing, even this winter. 😉

    • TennMark says:

      It’s interesting how our winters can have such wide discrepancies of record temperatures (both high and low) during the winter compared to summer. This daily record high of 65 compares to Lexington’s all time January high of 80 degrees (set in 1943). Chattanooga’s all time record low is 12 below zero yet a few other wintertime daily record lows are only in the low teens (above zero).

  34. Braxton says:

    Do you all think this run of the NAM is legit?

  35. Mark513 says:

    I’m lost on the 2 NAM runs also. Why is it showing still in Cincinnati a consistent amount near a Foot? Locals here are saying 5 inches at best. I hope it changes to more. We haven’t seen a big storm in over 10 years now.

  36. Houze says:

    This is fascinating to watch although I don’t know what gfs nam and euro mesnd

  37. Virgil says:

    Team #WhatCouldHaveBeen

  38. which way is the wind blowing says:

    If I receive an inch here in Louisville,that will be more snow that I have seen in almost two years.

  39. corey says:

    This storm.does have backside flurries wriitwn all over it lol

  40. Drew says:

    Ready to see a first call map!

  41. Snowteach says:

    Weather weenies winning!!!!!

  42. Jimbo says:

    Thanks for the WV shout out on Twitter, Chris. I’m pulli nd for you to be right.

  43. Lotsasnow says:

    Thinking that the winter storm watch’s will only turn into winter weather advisory

  44. Mark513 says:

    Locals in Cincinnati now saying just a few inches which means the model runs are shifting East more. Dusting to 1 inch I think at best here of course geez!

  45. Tim says:

    Come on can Athens Ohio get some snow

    • Tom says:

      Yes, the models show Athens may be in the sweet spot again. Heard you got a good snowfall a few days ago. Two in a row may make you spoiled!

  46. Ecmwf says:

    Gfs getting ready to start rolling in.

  47. Bubba says:

    CB is probably going to have a huge range for accumulation in different areas, since STILL no apparent solution agreement. 1” to 10” for all 😉 This is nuts. Maybe a faux system and Lucy’s ultimate football spot.

  48. Joyce says:

    It has gotten very quite

  49. Tom says:

    GFS looks like a bust to me…it’s still lost in the woods…or is it? I think it’s best to go to bed and see what the morning runs show us.

    • Debbie says:

      Totally agree w/ya there, Tom. Not like I don’t have enough confusion rolling around in my head-cold infested noggin’ and adding model madness to it. Everyone should know that by tomorrow, everything will be all different and convoluted for us once again. I expect nothing more, nothing less.

    • BengalFan says:

      Better yet, go to bed, work tomorrow and go to bed thursday night and see what the weather is actually doing on friday and Saturday. My goodness, this is modelmadness!!! Please no more
      I wouldn’t put any total numbers out until Friday morning. BUT…I wish I new what chris actually thinks well happen at this point

    • which way is the wind blowing says:

      In the long run it is probably closers to reality.
      I would forecast 1 to 2 inches across the whole state
      If you get more than that somewhere treated as a bonus.

  50. Cold Rain says:

    Went from a strong low pressure to well nothing..All within what a day 1/2..Models are just mind games anymore..

  51. Ecmwf says:

    Canadian looks pretty similar to gfs

  52. Oborowx says:

    These models seem to be all over the place. What is the chance that they trend back west and heavier as they were earlier? Also; does anyone see a “surprise” factor in that the storm strengthens rapidly after it gets going?

  53. JReed says:

    Call for snowfall coming up..

  54. BubbaG says:

    If this does not pan out, safe to say any credibility in the models besides the night before are worthless and ditto fo pondering them.

    The models have become cray cray. Guessing we go from big event smackdown talk to an inch or two with a little ice under it. Slippery surfaces the main theme, but perhaps the high wind could reduce some of the ice issue.

    The models STILL do not agree and are contradicting with each run.

  55. C in BG says:

    This is shaping up to be “snow’meh’geddon”

  56. c-BIV says:

    All 4 local stations in Louisville have 2-4″ for the area. WLKY is leaning more towards 2-3″. That is not Winter Storm Warning criteria. I’d expect a downgrade to advisory status if the model trends continue overnight.
    That 700 day streak could still be alive.

  57. Cold Rain says:

    Writing was on the wall when the GFS and Euro started lowering totals..Believe i read somewhere in the weenie weather handbook in a la Nina winter the northern stream is the boss..Makes since because every system has been squashed or strung out like a meth addict..Maybe Feb. things will turn around..

    • BubbaG says:

      CB is mentioned the models are disjointed now. That usually means there is not much there. At least not storm level. Dim der models need some tweakin

  58. Troy says:

    The next Euro run in a couple hours should tell us all we need to know.

  59. Justin says:

    I say again… Thursday night 0z run of the top models will be the gospel or very close to it. These southern stream storms are the hardest things in the world to predict. Especially the track of the low, and how the cold air is spilling in at different thicknesses. No doubt this is a tough one. The models are doing all they can do.

  60. Cold Rain says:

    Believe people are hoping for a miracle that’s not gonna happen..Nam has everyone wishing for a miracle..It’s been known to do

  61. Jeff Hamlin says:

    Armchair experts already calling a bust. Of course.

    • Cold Rain says:

      Bet your the life of the Christmas party ain’t you jeffy boy..All dressed up with your elf sweater..You’re about the most rudest person on this board..Want you do us all a favor and take a hike..

  62. JaredKY says:

    Some Models will start being unreliable at this point as far as snow totals because some will start factoring in the clipper system to follow on MLK Day

  63. rolo says:

    BELIEVE IN THE NAM at this point you youngsters, trust in the the nAm under 48. then trust in the RUC tomm night. listen I admit ole WAR HORSE Rolo as several here have lived thru bust after bust. BIG ONE as well. now there a lot of what I like to call wet behind the ears bloggers out there, meaning been around 5-6 years. you all got a long ways to go. here sum facts. first RELAX have a drink, read learn, take in from the old timers round here yea even me. I know I can come off HALFCRAZY but in the end I get my point across. the models 5-6 days out are as Bailey says eye candy. ok so take them as that, entertainment purposes I think he says. so he sees potential so we go to THREAT MODE, next step is ALERT MODE, but we have never took that step. so there your first lesson from teacher aide Rolo remember that for nest time. now could you get on the blog tomm afternoon and Bailey update go to Alert Mode no because if it changed he go full blown WARNING!!WARNING!!! jst saying we be past alert mode. anyway. to answer blogger question could something to change, the answer is a BIG YES. could it change for the good as far as snow YES. I don’t think it going miss meaning at this point its going Snow a couple inches at worst in Central and SE KY. yes Somerset east as well so south Ky area tooo. so. take that drink and go sleep and if u have kids there be out of School ALL NEXT WEEK cause the temps are tanking and the Monday Tuesday Snow a definite few inches as well. so SNOW LOVERS IN THE VIEWING AREA your going get your SNOW OK!!!!!!!! Redneck Bunker Handicapping at Facebook come like

  64. Bill says:

    Weather channel has the whole state of Kentucky in 1-3 inches. Big difference in what the models are showing and what the weather channel is forecasting.

  65. Julie Lynch says:

    Rio Grande & Jackson Oh weren’t under any advisories for winter weather. NWS Charleston WV is a joke!! I just now got a flood watch for Rio Grande! I agree with Chris about some of the NWS offices. Chillicothe Oh was just downgraded to winter weather advisory. They are clueless!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *