Good Thursday, everyone. With temperatures hitting the 60s today, it’s hard to imagine a winter storm moving in here in less than 24 hours, but that’s indeed what’s happening. I continue with the Winter Storm THREAT, but an upgrade to Winter Storm ALERT will be coming later today.

I have to admit, it’s been tough updating blogs, doing everything that comes with my full time TV job, and trying to keep track of everything that comes with twitter. If I didn’t respond to your questions, please don’t be offended. 🙂 Oh yeah…  Sleep is for the weak! Let’s do this…

I made a First Call Map on WKYT at 11 last night, but I’ve already scrapped that one and come up with a new version for you guys. I wanted to open up my range a little bit to deal with the snow and ice potential…

That’s a general estimate and the numbers and lines will fluctuate with future updates. Given the various precipitation types of sleet, freezing rain and snow, the totals can vary if any one type hangs around longer where you live.

Still, this looks the part of a decent winter storm for much of Kentucky and surrounding states. Given the current forecast I have, I’m expecting winter storm watches soon for most of the state. For school administrators, you’re going to have some tough decisions to make for Friday. The change to ice and snow happens quickly from west to east during the day.

The ice threat is real, especially across the west. Some local half inch amounts of freezing rain are very possible. That could pose some power issues.

Gusty winds of 30mph or higher will also be with us Friday afternoon into Friday night.

Let’s see what the models are offering up…

The European Model shows a significant winter storm for the entire region. Watch the progression of the rain to ice to snow from west to east…

That starts with late tonight and runs through Saturday morning. You will also notice some curvature in the band of snow across central Kentucky. Those bands can sometimes be overachievers and we will need to see if and where that does setup.

The ice from the Euro is impressive with amounts pushing close to 1″ in the west…

Nothing good comes from that much ice… Nothing.

The same model run is also impressed with that band of snow across the state…

The NAM is similar to that, but isn’t as enthusiastic with the snow band in central Kentucky, The model is still spitting some hefty amounts…

The HI RES NAM only goes through 7am Saturday morning, but you can see it picking up on the heavy snow band,  but just a bit west of the European and the map from above…

That run of the NAM is trending eastward with that main snow setup.

The Canadian Model suggests something similar to the European in terns of intensity and track of our storm…

It is also hitting western Kentucky hard with ice…

The model does have a lot of sleet as well, cutting down a bit on the snow totals in central Kentucky…

Obviously, it’s almost crunch time, so we should see the models start looking more alike later today.

While this winter storm is getting all the attention, do not sleep on the setup later Monday and Tuesday. This is a very intense system wrapping up as it dives in from the northwest…

GFS

Canadian

The European is very similar, but I can’t force myself to make yet another map. That’s coming into arctic air, so the ratios will be very high. Plus, those systems have been known to try and bomb out as they reach the east coast.

I will have updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.