Winter Storm ALERT Update

Good evening, everyone. As we wrap up another record setting high temperature day, it’s full steam ahead toward our winter storm arriving from west to east tonight and Friday. Our WINTER STORM ALERT CONTINES.

The transition to ice begins later tonight in western Kentucky, then rolls eastward from there. Snow will then take control behind the ice, with eastern Kentucky being last to get the switch.

Here’s my current call for Ice and Snowfall…

That is not the final call, and I will be massaging that call later this evening.  Significant snows are likely across our region. The snow totals for any one area will be dependent on how quickly the transition from ice to snow is. The slower that is, the lower the snow totals. The quicker it is, the higher the totals.

Regardless, this is a super high impact system.

Let’s check the latest snowfall numbers from the computer models.

The European…

GFS Ensembles average…

GFS

NAM

European Ensembles

Given all that guidance, one would assume a Winter Storm Warning had been issued for just about the entire state. Nope…

I am stunned the warning does not include, at least, the Lexington metro north and east.

Bitter cold follows all this for the weekend, with another very healthy snowmaker screaming into town on Monday.

Also of note, the heavy rain threat across far eastern Kentucky tonight and early Friday. Local high water issues are possible…

I will be tweeting out my latest thoughts and have a fresh call for ice and snowfall on WKYT at 11.

Have a great evening and take care.


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60 Responses to Winter Storm ALERT Update

  1. Bill Ayer says:

    Thanks, Chris. Your hard work and sharing is appreciated.

  2. drewdrip says:

    I’d be surprised if the warnings were not expanded tonight.

  3. Bob says:

    I hope the brutal air doesn’t stick around over a couple days because the public water systems here in eastern Ky. Can’t stand another 1-2 weeks of frigid air. Several counties water systems are in bad shape and the people are suffering.

  4. Troy says:

    Woohoo! Winning! Middlesboro, the only city in the entire state that is “almost” shut out on every model run!!! Rain and backside flurries for the win here.

    • Bobt says:

      Middlesboro is a strange situation. I’m right next door in Knox and have seen Knox get shut out and Middlesboro have 6 inches of snow. Not even a sign of snow 30 mile up the road. I’ve seen more than once Middlesboro be the only spot of Kentucky get snow and the whole state get snow and they don’t. I’m sure something in the layout of that area causes it.

      • Troy says:

        Very true. Middlesboro sits in a meteor crater several hundred feet below the surrounding mountains. Air, whether cold or warm gets trapped in the city as a cold or warm air above lifts over the mountains and across us. Like you, I have seen snow on the other side of the tunnel in Harrogate and in Pineville/Barbourville/Corbin at the same time while we have pure rain and we have also seen heavy snow while every other area (even the surrounding mountains) around us is rain. Very weird.

        • Terry says:

          Huge difference in so many sections of Harlan county too. Almost always, Cumberland gets more than Harlan but have seen it stay rain up in Cumberland with Harlan getting accumulating snow. Still, valley locations get so little compared to higher elevations, which unfortunately, people are often mislead by forecasts when Harlan county shows several inches predicted but only the tops of Pine and Black receive the totals, with many not living high up to ever see it. All across the state, people think Harlan gets so much snow but the reality, at least where most people live in the lower elevations, is that we often average less snow than many other locations in the state. OKAY, I WILL QUIT RATTLING ON NOW!

          • Stormtracker_WV says:

            Thank you for sharing this info, it’s interesting! I wish the weather service would tap into the knowledge of the tenured locals more to help tweek/fine-tune their local forecasts!

  5. Tim says:

    Looking good for me in Athens

  6. WestKyGuy says:

    Thanks again or your time, BTW your server is screaming “Help” right now!!!!!
    You do a HUGE service to the entire State Of Kentucky and beyond.

  7. SHAAK says:

    The blog is breaking

  8. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Let the fun and games begin….on a serious note, what you do is really appreciated and the fact that you do this for a bunch of weather weenies because we love weather as much as you speaks volumes. Please stay tuned to Chris and local outlets as this storm rolls in. Be careful if you must be out! Have a good evening everyone. Now just waiting ❄️❄️

    • Stormtracker_WV says:

      Now I want tshirts that say “Weather Weenies” on them! I don’t care if anyone else *gets it* or not, I love it! 🙂

  9. 37.89°N 84.36°W says:

    Mr. Bailey is in high cotton….nope-tons of snow and a real winter event~! Let’s all enjoy what comes our way.

  10. drewdrip says:

    St. Louis already 29 cold air on the move.

  11. Matt says:

    We’ve crashed Chris’s site!

  12. Machell says:

    Y
    E
    S
    !

  13. BubbaG says:

    That’s okay CB:

    The NWS are the arrogant storm chasers in Twister and you are Bill Harding. RIP Bill Paxton 🙁

  14. Allen says:

    Cut all those totals in half to account for the dreaded sleet that steals our snow and they are still pretty healthy amounts. Fingers crossed.

  15. Christinajade says:

    Current situation in Paducah – heavy rainfall and standing water everywhere. When that freezing line comes through, even if another drop didn’t fall, we’ll have ice rinks for roads.

  16. Jeff Hamlin says:

    In before anyone plays the winter forecast B or H words.

  17. Cold Rain says:

    Wonder how all this model watching can become so addictive..It’s like a drug..Anyways no matter if you receive a inch or a foot just be thankful you’re able to enjoy it..Peace out..lol

    • Kyle Spaulding says:

      I live in Colorado and have been following this storm on here for the last few days. Has no impact on me but model watching is addictive and CAB is awesome.

  18. jacksonohiocbfan says:

    yea, how long has it been since site has crashed?? been that way since 4pm. keeps it and says it DOWN!

  19. SHAAK says:

    NAM still with heavy snow in north central and eastern KY.

    • Ecmwf says:

      Very good point. Snow will have to overcome a warm and soggy ground. A quick ice up on roads will also be possible as temps crash from initial rain and melting snow

      • Prelude says:

        Snow will overcome a warm soggy ground very quickly with ease especially with heavy snow rates and temperatures crashing.

      • Packman says:

        I saw ponds in central KY this afternoon that still had ice on them. If they are still frozen then ground just below the surface is still frozen too. Surface will referees very fast.

  20. Michael Carson says:

    The Lexington office certainly has to upgrade to a warning. Too conservative for my taste. You always have to be leery of a day in the 60s followed by rain, ice/sleet and snow. You know deformation bands are going to set up somewhere.

  21. Amy says:

    BubbaG, I was in the store earlier planning my survival. ☺️ Since we both live in Madison County, I was scanning the blog for your comments to see if I needed to add to the cart or take out a few things. Just letting you know that I appreciate you sharing your take on the forecast.

    • BubbaG says:

      I was in the grocery chaos tonight as well. Bad shopping timing. CB’s forecast seems reasonable. Ice, temp timing, front speed are all factors that can help or hurt. Now cast mode really at this point.

  22. brandon says:

    the storm looks healthy! lots of red showing on the radar.. i cant wait to see snow totals from this. i bet a few places hit
    15 inches

  23. Debbie says:

    A few days before the ’09 ice storm, it was around 60°. I’ve been thinking about that for a couple days now, and since I live in Bardstown and know the drill by now, I’m throwing it out there. 1/4″+ ice accum. enhanced with 5-7″ snow. I may change that by the a.m., but likely not at this point. Everyone be careful in case I can’t get back on here due to the server crashing issues!

  24. nancy says:

    Was out running errands at 5 pm today and could not believe there was a 7 degree temp difference between Lawrence and Johnson counties (<20 miles). A few degrees i can understand, but that big of a change?! Just curious if maybe that will be of any significance with the change over in precip?

  25. Melva says:

    When will this hit these areas? Will this affect kids during the school day?

  26. Rolo says:

    5-8 inches for viewing area/ blog area farther south towards tenn border lesser amounts. London east and north and northeast higher amounts.

  27. Rolo says:

    Post the RUC it’s what u need start looking at now Short rang model bailey tells u most Mets go to nowcast with. He just showed it on air and it wasn’t real great for many, but show 2inch plus showing up that model to start looking at.

  28. c-BIV says:

    Latest from JB: RPM computer has increased the snow total to over 6″ for Louisville. Be careful tomorrow.

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