Good Friday, everyone. It’s a Winter Storm ALERT today through early Saturday as a significant winter storm blasts the bluegrass state. As usual, I have the blog all set to track the ice and snow across our region.
Before we get to that, here are a few thoughts:
- The temperature drop today is nothing short of astounding. As the front moves through, temps can drop 20-30 degrees in an hour or so.
- Winds are going to be a big player through tonight, with gusts reaching 30mph or greater.
- The transition from rain to freezing rain and sleet will work east, reaching eastern Kentucky this afternoon. Here’s hoping for more sleet than freezing rain.
- The transition to snow takes place early today in the west, reaching central Kentucky this afternoon, then eastern Kentucky during the evening hours.
- We are likely to see an area of enhanced snow setting up across the region from late afternoon into the evening. Areas under that may pick up 1″-2″ snows per hour or so.
- Snowfall totals will depend on how quickly the transition from freezing rain and sleet to snow is where you live. The quicker the transition, the more snow. The slower, the less snow.
Here’s my current call…
Much of that won’t fall until the evening hours, so be patient. Also, understand the weather doesn’t follow lines or abide by what I think it should do. The lines and totals are a general estimate, š
I made that map Thursday afternoon, and it looks like the new European Model had the same idea…
Here’s the ice forecast from the Euro…
Again, let’s hope this is more sleet than freezing rain because that’s ugly.
The snows taper off from west to east tonight, with lingering flurries or a passing snow shower on Saturday. Winds are going to make the 20 degree highs feel like single digits.
Single digit lows show up on Sunday morning with below zero wind chills.
An arctic front moves in later Monday andĀ will likely put down another moderate snowfall. That system can be all kinds of fun around here, with gusty winds producing blinding snows. Temps head toward zero behind this. Ouch.
I will try to update things later , but IĀ will alsoĀ be #sleevesup on WKYT-TV throughout the day and evening.
Here are your winter storm trackers…
Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington
Fifth Third Pavilion Live Cam
Downtown Lexington
I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington
I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South
Between Lexington and Richmond
US 60 @ US 127
Frankfort
US 60 @ Chenault Road
Near Millville
Louisville
Bardstown
I-65 MP 92.4
Elizabethtown
Louie B Nunn MP 3
Near Glasgow
Natcher Parkway MP 5
Near Bowling Green
I-24 MP 7 @ US 62
Paducah
I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead
I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 at 12th St.
Covington
Winchester
Georgetown
Stay safe and have a Great Friday. Take care.
Bring it on!
Unless it’s freezing rain š .
Try to get some rest Chris and Tnx for all ur dedication and hard work! Doc is noticing on the RAP and other products are now starting to show a faster transition from rain/ ice/sleet to snow starting in the central ky areas which could boost our totals
Great. Thanks Chris.
Iām probably off, if the gulf flow pumps it up…which it looks like it is…..45 ice and 6-10 in the metro….
Owensboro down to 33 degrees. Memphis is 34.
I see the NWS has just finally added Fayette co in the Winter Storm Warning area
Davidson County TN (includes Nashville) is still under a Winter Weather Advisory, yet the neighboring counties to the west and north have Winter Storm Warnings.
Hoping that our little generator won’t have to be used with the freezing rain.
Nashville TN is 61 degrees. Clarksville TN just to the northwest has already dropped to 36.
Unlike the winter weather we are about to experience, very different conditions were happening on this very day way back in 1890. On this day in history was a tornado outbreak……including several stronger twisters. One understandably might expect that the few stronger tornadoes this time of year mostly occur in the Deep South. But this January tornado outbreak happened in in our region. Indeed, one of the strongest of the January 12 1890 tornadoes was an F4 at Clinton KY; so unusual is this F4 is that it is one of only two January F4s that have occurred in the B-l-u-e-g-r-a-s-s State…..at least in recorded history.
Some warm temperature records from January 1890 still stand today.
https://kyweathercenter.com/?p=17151#comment-174614
What few stronger wintertime tornadoes that have happened in both Tennessee and Kentucky tend to occur in the western sections of both states as their lower elevations may allow for slightly more heating and thus slightly increased lift and instability that can help spawn tornadoes.
In their 3:30 a.m. update Louisville nws states, The cold air
appears to be a bit deeper than the models have progged. Upstream
reports have been mainly sleet from eastern MO and SE IL with just a
little freezing rain.
Conclusion: snow totals have been bumped up some.
I’m under a flood warning and winter storm warning here in Athens ohio, streams and creeks running bank full in some locations
My temperature dropped 14 degrees in about 30 minutes in Valley Station. At 4a, I was at 57. Now it’s 5a and my temperature is at 40….a 17 degree drop in the past hour.
Whoa!
Will the big dry slot fill in guys?
Crazy
Have to wait and see where that precipitation in Mississippi goes. Looking at the radar I’m not really impressed as of now.
All the dry spots
cold air is progressing faster than modeled and the cold air is deeper.
This blog keeps eating my comments
For the last few days, there’s been over a hundred comments on this blog. Now its less that two dozen! Where did everybody go?!
They’re not on #teamnosleep. It will pick up
Lol, I am
t was 5:30am CHILL š
Site has been down at times
35 in Sellersburg, IN.
Last night, Charleston NWS had my area picking up 2-4 inches. This morning they changed to 1-2 ????
I saw that too and it didnāt make me happy… but I think this is a nowcasting event bc this storm is writing its own rules! š
Snow will begin sooner than expected since temperatures have dropped quickly. Sellersburg, IN will soon be at 32, which was not expected until around 9:00 am.
Temps are dropping west to east faster than forecast. The only thing is that I’m looking at the national radar and this storm looks so spotty and unorganized. Maybe it’s still developing?
There is lots more to come.
To the quitters out there, you know who you are, the ones who quit on winter 5 days into winter, you’ll always be a quitter to me.
To everyone else, Bourbon and Bonfires in a snowstorm!
To all stay safe, even you quitters.
Lucyās football says, Itās not happened yet. š
The dry slot isn’t getting smaller. That will hurt totals.
I’ve been watching that and it doesn’t look good for snow totals
Relax…it’s literally not even 7am. This is going to fill in. Yes someone will see the dreaded dry slot at some point this evening. However, what you’re looking at right now is going to fill in as it spreads North.
Your right people relax and let mother nature take control the big part of the snow will not fall till this afternoon.
Jim Caldwell said on the news this morning that the dry spots will fill in.
Thelma Lou is going to bed on this one for our part of the world, maybe an inch or a smidge more for Wayne County. To all those who get it…enjoy it, but be sure & stay safe. For all like us who don’t feel the snow love, better luck next time.
Rough for us South Central and SE KY folks….we feel your pain. At least we are missing a mediocre winter storm and not the ole school shut down, 1 foot + type!
i wouldn’t give up on se ky just yet
Any snow/sleet/frz rain reports from out in wky
See below and also this link
http://twitter.com/BGoodeWAVE3/status/951791658697412608
Temp dropped from 43 to 37 in about a 20 minute on the drive from NKY to Downtown Cincinnati.
33 here in Louisville now , and āfeels like 23ā with light rain. Temps are dropping much faster. Hoping my husband comes home from his office soon.
Sleet is being reported, in J-town and Middletown in eastern JEFFERSON county, Louisville.
I am in the Eastwood area of Louisville. We are at 31Ā° with light freezing rain.
The change over to FRZ Rain has happened in BG.
Latest RAP model shows thumping for far western KY and TN. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2018011211/021/sn10_acc.conus.png
Looks like the colder air is moving in well sooner then expected and it low pressure is slowing it progress abit it now all a matter of timing.as the front progresses through the state as what position all the ingredients will been in place as to what kind of “soup” everyone’s location will receive. Everyone be safe.
It’s already down to 32 at my house in Eastwood, which is right near Jefferson/Shelby county line. Sleet mixing in. Coming fast and furious. Good call on closing schools today.
My brother used to live in Eastwood for about 20+ years. Great little community.
Yea, I really like it here
New 11z HRRR model only goes through midnight tonight. Very similar hit for West Ky and TN as the RAP. http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018011211/018/sn10_acc.us_ov.png
Here in far Western,ky freezing rain has pelted our area and begin to transis to snow and temperature has drop to 20 degrees. The heavy band of snow is began to move in our neck of woods. Be safe and have a good day.
Right now the Temperature is thirty eight degrees and the barometer is rising here in central Kentucky. Snow is falling in western Kentucky ( don’t know if it is reaching the ground ) and is moving slowly to the north and slightly east. The low pressure is moving over central Kentucky and heading north / northeast which has cut off the precipitation in my area. This is the dry slot of the storm. Unless, the cold front slows down as it moves east and forms another low pressure system to our southeast and moves slowly north, this event is over.
Thanks Chris for all your hard and tiring work on this winter event. It has been interesting and educational for all of us.
Calling the event over, before it has even started. #Boldstrategy
That seems a backhanded compliment š
Looks like snow or something frozen, based on the and the live cams for far west KY.
Just checked out the southeast radar. In western Georgia, a strong disturbance is forming and moving towards the north / northwest. If this energy ( positive ) hooks up with the energy within the cold front ( negative ) we could be looking at a widespread major snowstorm.
Will that combine with the one coming at us today or will it be with the one hes talking about for Monday/Tuesday?
The storm for Monday or Tuesday is an Alberta Clipper which will miss us to the north. A clipper is just a reinforcement of cold dry air. What moisture it produces is about one to three inches of dry snow with a wind shift to the northwest. Our current storm is being held back by a large surface high in the Atlantic Ocean.
The above is my own findings so take it with a grain of salt. LOL
Im still on Team #WhatCouldHaveBeen
Until this pans out however it does, we do not know who is or isnāt on that same team. CBās forecast was very reasonable, but is a forecast. Iām rooting for him and not NWS.
56 here with a ground temp of 31. Sitting in the dry slot and it will be interesting to see how it plays out. Tim from Athens
I have a stupid question… live in WV near the KY border. We were predicted to not be below freezing until WELL past dark this evening. If itās already dropping to freezing just a few hours west of us (2-3 hours) does this mean the changeover is really going to make it to us crazy earlier than forecast?
I was wondering the same thing.
I am wondering the same. It was predicted to be around 42 degrees at 8am in Cincinnati, but it is 34 degrees. Dropped from 50 @ 6am. Definitely interested to see how these temps peform the next couple hours!
Another report from Bowling Green by NWS
http://twitter.com/NWSLouisville/status/951805050111787008
I just drove into lex and my car said 41 degrees at 8.15. Was it supposed to start falling this early?
No. The cold air is deeper and moving in faster. Not sure what that means about snow totals, though.
From what i’ve heard, its suppose to up the snow totals.
Starting to sleet in Shelby county (Shelbyville).
The precip is extending far south. Is this the way it was forecasted?
Lot dry air out there work into this low right now looking like a isolated snow right snow unless the precip blows back up.
Rolo , should the dry holes on the radar will in soon?
Joyce short term model says we should see some enhancement so yes. We will have to see if it does or not.
Cars and elevated surfaces icing up quick in Bowling Green.
I have a question. Weather Channel and NWS out of Charleston have the current temp where I live in NE Ky as 59 and 51. Itās 44 degrees here. Itās held there since 7am. I canāt help believe that this is going to have a big impact on accumulations, especially since both agencies have dropped our accumulation from 3 to 5 inches down to 1 to 3. Any thoughts?
Yeah I posted something similar above. Iām in WV near Huntington. About 30 min ago it was 56, and itās already dropping. And yet on hourly forecast on TWC app (which o know is garbage) it says it will be 59 at 10am. I am watching Lexingtonās temp on the app and itās dropping by two degrees every 10 minutes or less. Its hard to believe there wonāt be an impact on snow totals.
Maybe that is what Chris factored in that they didnāt. Quicker change for higher totals….
New Nam shows big snow for West KY. This matches up with recent RAP and HRRR runs. I think most of the western 3rd of the state will get 6-12″. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018011212/030/snku_acc.us_ov.png
FYI, the temperature sensor at Huntington, WV is having MAJOR issues. Don’t trust it. Yesterday it was reporting 90 degrees at one point…
It’s too bad there are no Kentucky Mesonet stations in Northeast Kentucky.
Yeah.. 44 here not 59 or 51…
Most recent NAM calling for maybe an inch in Lexington. This one may be over before it begins.
GFS, EURO, NAM, and Canadian all useless now at this point. It’s day of, so the HRRR, and RPM high res in house models, along with now casting are the best tools. Throw the others out the door.
Reading some of NWS out of Tenn. last night..They mention the dreaded dry slot knocking down totals..So i would say not looking good for Southern and Southeast Ky..But don’t think we were ever in the game to begin with..
Can’t wait for Monday!
Looks like there is.tons of dry.air embedded in this.storm…not a good thing
From what Iāve read, itās supposed to fill back in later today.
Time to quit looking at models especially the nam and just watch the radar
HRRR still showing decent 4-6 inches of snow fall for central Kentucky.
This radar isn’t giving me much hope for taking my little girl out in the snow. And temps are still hanging touch in the Morehead area. š
Studying the RAP model at 925mb and 850mb, any rain falling near Louisville with surface temps now below freezing should begin transitioning to mostly sleet unless that nose of warm air keeps hanging tough. Sleet is falling not too far away…
Uh, just checked outside. I am now getting sleet at 30 degrees. Hopefully, the sleet stays that way until changing over to snow later.
Freezing rain in old Louisville. A little glaze on surfaces.
RAP model showing same 4-6 inches with spotty 8 inches in North Central Kentucky.
13z HRRRhttp://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018011213/018/snku_acc.us_ov.png
Let me try that again….13z HRRR model http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018011213/018/snku_acc.us_ov.png
It’s not even 10 in the morning and most of the snow won’t fall until evening. You guys gotta chill the crap out.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/southeast-region/satellite-wv?play=1
Water vapor loop..Guess red is bad..lol
Check out the spiraling on that sucker!
Don’t know about the spiraling but looks dry to me..Maybe Schroeder can tell us..He likes the water vapor loops..
Guess any kind of green is good..Shame it ain’t all bright green..
If the low goes through an area that is the dry slot.
bad for snow lovers….that’s dry air sucking into the system. Look at the legend below the map (red is dry)
Word is that the radar is going yo start filling in…looks like its already started to do so
Freezing rain, sleet, and snow will be on the increase through out the day.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0022.html
Keeping an eye on Paducah camera above. A heavy burst of snow looks to affect that region over the next hour or two, probably up to 3″ just from that. Snow line appears in Owensboro, maybe a little east by now.
All snow in bowling Green now, as well
What part of Warren Co.?
Western KY under a sleet siege right now! Piling up and hoping for transition to snow at any time. Rodger in Dodger
Better than an ice siege š
NWS in Charleston just modified the WAA in my area (near Huntington) to slightly up the snow totals. TWC just increased the totals as well from 1-3 to 3-5 inches. I guess time will tell but it sure is fun to have something to track!
Yea you can tell on the map i posted a lot of moisture is in your area and more heading that way..
Yep back to 3-5 here in NE KY
Sitting at 55 here in knott county still sticking by my inch prediction for here
Same in Letcher…hoping for more tho!
We in NE Ky like the new gfs.
Link?
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conussfc.php?run=2018010812&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084
It is confirming the hrrr short term model that now shows 4-6 around Ashland.
2-4″ sleet in Cape Girardeau county in Missouri…2″ sleet in Murray KY
Sleet falling in sheet waves in northern Marion County.
Thank you Chris! Temps in Northern Jackson County Ohio are dropping like a rock.
It has been sleeting in Owensboro since 2am. We have an inch of just sleet! No snow at all yet. Any idea when this may change to snow?
Wondering how much sleet might cut totals down for some areas. Still, better than ice whatever the case š
Surged to 66 in Harlan at 11:00 before the rain which started again 5 minutes ago. I had to switch the air on for just a few minutes! Here comes the change:)
Temp is actually rising in Middlesboro Terry. Couple hours ago it was 58 and has risen to 63! NWS says up to an inch for us, Chris’ map says 1-3. I say a dusting at most for you and I as we have seen this exact scenario far too many times. Guessing you agree. lol
SNOW now in western KY near Henderson and falling at a good clip! Hoping for at least four inches with southern stream still pumping. Rodger in Dodger
Temp dropped 20 degrees in a couple hours time down to 33 in Covington. Been stuck around 33 degrees with rain and drizzle for 3 hours now. Ugh. Here is the latest 15z HRRR Model. It goes up to 4am Eastern Time. http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018011215/018/sn10_acc.us_ov.png
WKY #winning
15 z RAP goes out to 7am Eastern Time tomorrow morning. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2018011215/021/sn10_acc.conus.png
NWS Louisville cutting back snow totals and Brian Goode Wave3 Louisville likewise, 2-4″ and 1-4″ respectively (this is for Louisville). Sleet accumulation and dry slot to blame. Yet, deformation band can still produce efficient accumulation.
Said before, saying it again – dang dry slot! Why can’t they forecast that?
From NWS
“So, with all this in mind, have lowered snow totals a little from a
general 5 inch or so swath to a 2-4 inch swath, but still could see
isolated higher amounts in the most persistent part of the
deformation band.”
Come on deformation band, my all time favorite! ; )
Actually, Allen, I did see something yesterday (but I forgot on whose site?! I’m old..forgive me!)about a possible dry slot forming SOMEWHERE in the forecast area, but they were uncertain as to where it would be. I said it would be in Nelson Co. if anywhere, and sure enough…it’s heeerrrre!!! lol!
True shape comma low now u can see form on the radar with moisture stream to south. So now we watch the area and the backside of e precip as it moves out to the east. The low starts to move. That said if you get in the swath of the path of the back side u going get some impressive snowfall rates. itās going be interesting to watch how the swath moves as we go thru the day and nite and how it strengthens or weakens. Enjoy folks, midday call for viewing area snow Bailey 4-8 inch swath might need be up on high in in spots, yea up I said line from Danville NEast to Ashland could be a honey hole for a 2in per hour rate for few hours for little while. Now any jog in movement by low can move that line. I think the Low not even crank up yet. So my area viewing/blog area right map is 4-10 thatās low end from ky tenn border to high end up to lex east Ne To Ashland.
lol@Rolo..4-10..be lucky to see a trace in Southeast ky..Just my view..
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/archiveviewer.php?sector=20&parm=thck&underlay=1
Neat map if you want to follow the 32 degree line/front
Click on surface obs..Cool
Snowing hard here in far Western, ky
Wow, I am new to this site and new to lex. Nola, transplant. I thought watching and predicting tropical systems was fun and erratic. This being my first winter storm and first time I will probably see frozen precipitation fall is exciting. I am glad I found this site and a good meteorologist. We had a few great ones in New Orleans.
Frz Rn here in Bardstown, icicles forming on picnic table, bird feeders, garden statues, etc., pavement still just wet, but we are now in that dreaded dry slot, so am hoping the snow just out to our W/SW will fill in efficiently to get rid of that obstacle!
I have been in a dry slot in WV for the last 6 hours. Precip on radar is totally surrounding the state.
How much will Ashland get?