Good Friday, folks. It’s the final Friday of what has been a brutally cold January, and mother nature is saving the best for last. Highs temps may reach 60 in many areas, but winter weather isn’t too far away. The winter weather threats are showing up for next week, with the potential for a bigger event to start February.
Today is just absolutely phenomenal with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Sunny skies will then give way to some clouds by the afternoon and evening. This is also when winds really begin to crank up. Gusts of 40mph or greater will be possible through Saturday morning.
Rain arrives from west to east late tonight into Saturday. Rainfall totals may exceed a half inch in some areas through Sunday morning.
Another cold front then drops in Sunday night, kicking in a strong northwesterly wind flow. That should touch off snow showers and flurries that take us through early Tuesday. Some coatings are certainly possible underneath this cold setup…
An arctic front will be surging toward Kentucky by next Thursday. Odds continue to favor a wave of low pressure developing along that front, with the potential for a winter weather threat along it. The Ohio and Tennessee Valleys continue to show up as the target zone on the models.
The GFS…
The Canadian…
The new European isn’t quite as strong with the wave as the above models…
My take is it’s still way too early to get overly excited about any major winter weather event, but the chances are there from just under a week away. Let’s just sit back and watch how this all plays out in the coming days.
I will update things later today. Make it a good one and take care.
I think we could get more excited if the Euro was more onboard, but it’s no. I’ve noticed only a couple runs of it have delivered a decent snow for us in the past few days. Most runs have had most of the snow for next week either west of us or north of us. Or like now, not showing much of a storm at all.
I normally don’t say this but really cheering on the GFS this time!
The Euro ensembles seem colder than the operational so I’m not sure I buy it. But no model is King for more than a day.
Thanks Chris, I don’t understand all these weather models. I have to rely on observational techniques to come up with conclusions. Like you said in your blog this morning, it’s way too early to forecast a major snow event for late next week. I looked at the water vapor loop this morning before coming on here and the Gulf of Mexico is opening up and moisture is flowing northward towards the Ohio valley and at the same time colder air is moving in from the northwest. This will bring us the forecast rain event for tomorrow and Sunday. What I can’t tell is how cold it will be in the upper levels when the moisture arrives ?
Yeah it’s kind of like he said – the storm track is going to be active, but impossible to say what we’ll get out of it at this point. It should be a fun ride, though.
Since only the GFS is gung-ho about next week’s winter threat, I’m not feeling it, at least not until the Euro is on board. GFS has been way too inconsistent this winter.
Don’t forget the Canadian..You know the model that was showing -30 degrees during the frigid cold,,lol
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2018012600/gem_asnow_seus_31.png
Ha!
Hope that Canadian model doesn’t pan out. According to them, my county only receives five inches of snow. Not liking that at all. In reality it’s too early to tell where the storm tract will be on any given weather model.
5 inches of snow is more than some people have had all season.
Andy, five inches is not a snowstorm make. I’m use to fifteen inches plus where I come from and where I live now.
Depends on where you live in KY Schroeder… For those who live south of a line London/Somerset to the state line Middlesboro/Williamsburg, then yes…5″ is considered a snowstorm…
I would love 5 inches here in Harlan!
The Arctic Oscillation at 500mb is showing a V-shaped look again from the Ensembles for February 1 time frame. Last time, we had that signal was just a couple of weeks ago when western Kentucky was sacked with a foot of snow that week.
What I have not seen before is the PNA and NAO are also showing a V-shaped look in its Ensembles forecast for the same time period.
Now that I understand.
Chris said the other day, the Arctic Oscillation was strongly negative, which would mean the polar vortex is weakening and the westerlies in Canada are slowing down, which will allow Arctic air to freely flow southward.
What I understand is this: It looks like cold will be in place, but who knows yet about moisture. several weeks ago for an entire week the blog was tracking a WINTER STORM..but only gave Richmond 1 1/2 in of snow…then a winter advisory and we get almost 5 in of snow. So, lets just sit back and watch what the weather wants to do, not what the models say its going to do.
I speculate, the reason why the southeastern counties have been left out of the snow this winter is because we have had limited moisture from the Gulf of Mexico feed into these low pressure systems as they come through the central part of the state. Hopefully, this will change next month so everyone in the state will get there desired snowstorm.