Good afternoon, gang. I don’t have much time, but I wanted to make sure to give you an update on this awesome looking and feeling day.
The weekend setup continues to look soggy, with rain increasing from west to east tonight and Saturday. Wind gusts of 40mph or higher will also be possible.
A second cold front drops in Sunday night, with snow showers and a few areas of light snow developing behind it. Monday into early Tuesday could produce some light snow accumulations…
The late week storm signal continues to show up VERY strongly. Watch this trough deepen and take on a negative tilt as it swings through our region and into the northeast…
The GFS is producing a monster storm impacting a lot of people…
The Canadian isn’t quite as strong, but it’s trending toward a deeper storm system…
I’ve been yapping about the early February potential for a while now. The above signal has been on my radar well before the models were showing it, but not that they’re picking it up, that lends some confidence that to my thoughts. A significant winter weather event is possible across the Ohio Valley late next week. The details for where you live are a long way from being known.
I will have an update on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm, with another update here on KWC later in the evening.
Make it a good one and take care.
I never trust the GFS until it’s within a few days. This far out it will bounce around before it’s all over.
My bets are on the folks north of us and east to get thumped. Cherry picking time! 🙂
Whatever/wherever the case, looks like there is potential for something frozen to fall.
Thanks Chris. Wouldn’t mind seeing a big old thumper of a snow. But after reading your blog for a LOT of years, I’ve learned to not get excited until you do. So, I’ll wait and see…. have s great afternoon in this wonderful weather everyone!
The only thing that bewilders me on the GFS model is the surface low appears to move along the Ohio River, which would bring mostly rain to the south with back side flurries or light snow at the end of the storm. It looks to have lots of moisture ( more than the Canadian model ), but the tract of the surface low is too far north to produce a major snowstorm for central and southern Kentucky. We need an upper level low to become stationary over the Tennessee Valley to get a huge accumulation of snow state wide. This happened in the late 1990’s.
Hence my bets are north of us. Still as usual, a long ways from now and models tend to only be good to cherry pick. Nowcasts tend to be the only practical forecasting tool for KY.
That’s right Schroeder you want that low south of you not right on top of you. The best snow storms I ever saw in south eastern Ohio were when the lows came out of the Texas Panhandle and moved northeast up along the west side of the Appalachian Mountains.
It’s the GFS but it’s been very consistent with this … so far. Consistency this far out CAN mean it will verify. Who gets exactly what – who knows? BUT, six days away is still an eternity in winter weather forecasting. Rodger in Dodger
We said the same thing not too long ago and look how that panned out for most 😉 It was the little clipper that ironically gave most there snow. Not the big week/days out models in agreement. Nowcast = Best model 🙂 😉
Rodger got 5″ from the first event two weeks ago today and another 3″ from the clipper – western Kentucky. We’ll get what we get! Rodger in Dodger
If it tracks like it’s showing now, it would put a lot of snow down again for nw tn and west ky. If it goes into a neg tilt and wraps up, they’ll be a big fat dry slot- prob right over mid tn where I live but we’re used to that. Still curious about the set up for the 5th.
When we’re close enough that the hi-res rapid refresh (RAP) or hi-res NAM models are showing this, I’ll pay attention. Until that time, I refuse to get drawn into model mania.
It is interesting to watch for now, but will be excited if models pan out by Friday next week. I do enjoy watching the model progression, but without the murmuring and negativity.
Looks kind of familiar..We know how that panned out..
http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018012618/204/sn10_acc.us_ov.png