Good Saturday, my fellow weather weenies. As rain rolls across the state today, major changes are on the way for the upcoming week. Our halftime of winter is coming to an end, and Old Man Winter is ready to start the second half with a long return for a touchdown. I’ve got a blowout post to cover it all. 🙂
Today’s rains will increase from west to east, with several hours of steady rain likely for any one location…
Local amounts of greater than a half inch are likely through the first half of Sunday. That’s when the rain ends across the southeast, with some sunshine showing up across the region.
Another cold front then slides in here late Sunday night into Monday, unleashing a cold northwesterly wind. That wind will create rounds of snow showers and flurries through early Tuesday…
Light accumulations are a good bet during this time, especially across the mountains of eastern Kentucky.
As we head toward the second half of next week, our winter storm signal continues to show up for the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
An arctic front moves in and slows down, allowing a storm system to develop along the front. This system should have ample moisture to work with and much of that falls in the colder air. Just how strong this system gets, is still to be determined, so we still have a lot of time to watch it.
That said, we continue to see amazing agreement from all the models. The GFS keeps showing a significant storm for our region…
The Canadian Model is similar, but shows much broader coverage of the precipitation shield…
The European Model is coming around to the stronger system idea and is similar to the above models…
If we look at the GFS Ensembles (21 members) snowfall average, we also find our region in the target zone…
In some aspects, not all, this reminds me a little bit of February 2015. Of course, that doesn’t mean it will turn out in similar fashion.
If we can put a snowpack on the ground, temps next weekend can get back to where we were into much of the first half of January…
Arctic cold shots are lining back up, and will keep coming into the country over the next few weeks, at least…
I will update things later today. Make it a good one and take care.
I’m not good at reading models, but some are showing double diget snow totals for some?
I know models like to tease us from this far out, but it is interesting to look at.
Thanks for the updates CB. Will be interesting to see how things pan out later this week. ❄️❄️❄️
I’m really amazed how consistent the GFS has been with this storm and with the Canadian on board all we need is the European to confirm and this might be one hell of a snowstorm that might give some double digits snow. Will have to wait and see with this one.
I’ve done a double take a couple of times, as it’s not all that often we see the European follow the beleaguered GFS. But as has been pointed out before, all models have their quirks and shortcomings. Still, it is remarkable how multiple models (both operational and ensembles) are starting to come together this far out.
Looking forward to seeing how short range, high resolution models like the NAM will grasp this potential storm.
Still too far out but a good sign that the Euro is gaining a stronger return:)
Your right it is to far out will have wait 2-3 days for the hi-res to confirm.
The predicted snowfall maps look almost identical to the big snow of 2016 in the placement and areas covered by the heavy snow. We can hope.
And if I remember correctly, that 2016 storm also had consistently strong model agreement many days out… we shall see.
Storm chasers lined up in formation west of Oklahoma City to pay tribute to the life of fellow chaser Joel Taylor.
http://twitter.com/McBeeWX/status/956249277507936256
Although storm chaser fatalities due to tornadoes, lightning strikes and car crashes have been relatively rare, these risks can only be minimalized but not totally eliminated. Unfortunately, there are early reports that an overdose of “party drugs” may have led to Taylor’s sudden p-a-s-s-i-n-g. If this is confirmed, what a needless waste that would be. It can make one wonder what Andy Gabrielson would be contributing to science and storm chasing today had we not needlessly lost him in 2012 to a drunk driver (who also died); Andy was also a father to a little girl.
It looks like the 06z GFS has scaled back the strength of the storm a little bit. I Want to see 12 z Canadian to what does.
We will see waffles on every run and will almost likely see either a drastically scaled back storm in the next few days or a similar looking storm with the majority of the system move south to GA or north to OH and PA.
That “standard” of forecasting accuracy and consistency, Weather Underground, has this post for Thursday Night 02/01
“Periods of snow. Low 24F. Winds NNE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 80%. 5 to 8 inches of snow expected.”
Of course, they had a similar post for Christmas Eve/Day a week out. And it will change every few hours between now and then. They just post whatever the latest run of whatever model they use with no context. That’s why I come here, to get expert perspective. Even when forecasts don’t verify – and winter forecasts are the worst for that – at least we get educated.
All that said, wouldn’t mind one more big snow!
Nailed it Allen! I don’t even check those anymore other than to see how Chris is going to crush their forecast!
Thanks Chris, excellent information on the weather models. You have a way to make them understandable. I will go out on a limb and predict that this will be a widespread snow event along with the coldest Arctic air we have seen so far this winter. Have a great Saturday.
ThNjs Chris and good Saturday morning to all of my weather friends. It is kind of unusual to see s the midrls in such close agreement, especially this far out. So guess we will have to wait and see what two or three days bring…. well getting ready for work so have a great Saturday everyone.
The models were n agreement a few weeks ago and did not exactly pan out. Ironically the clipper afterward was our main snow and not expected. Summary being the models are mainly for entertainment and not to be banked on.
The cherry picking though is entertaining and make the blog like a soap opera of emotions. Good stuff! 🙂
Was that a clipper? Whatever it was, it was supposed to be a topping over a bigger snow. For most it was the main action. Nice too, since high ratio snow is easy to shovel 🙂
Correct! For the “warning” the jI red models the day before where all over the place withe totals (some showing up to 14 inches, etc)..and Richmond got 1 1/2 in.
Blog does equal soap opera!!
It was clipper but it tapped into Gulf of Mexico moisture and that led to the bigger snow totals. Hopefully, we all get hammered with this next event. Rodger in Dodger
Local Mets here say watch for northwest shift in comming days
12z Canadian has completely lost the cold showing all rain now. Here begins the back and forth model battles.
That’s typical models will waffle nothing to be alarmed about.
Not to mention the models are best guessing- especailly at this point. They are trying to create something that does not exist yet. That is why a lot of times something from nothing equals nothing as an actual result.
Thanks Chris for all the information you give looks like ole man winter is going to hang around for awhile besides spring doesn’t start tell March 21st. Who’s knows what mother nature got in store for us
Looking like a flooding event for next weekend for the majority of kentucky
Aren’t you glad you are not the rain maker,GOD knows what we need let it come ,each day is wonderful whether its snowing or its seventy degrees,Thank God for another day,AMEN?