Good Sunday, everyone. Rain continues to slowly end across eastern and southeaster Kentucky, as we get ready for winter to surge back into the bluegrass state. I’m tracking two winter weather events for the week ahead, with the late week one potentially being a decent storm.
Today’s rain presses out of the east, leaving us with increasing amounts of sun from northwest to southeast…
Much colder air comes back in here early Monday, with a strong little disturbance dropping in from the northwest later in the day. This will touch off a period of light snow and snow showers that takes us into early Tuesday morning. Some light accumulations are very possible across central and eastern Kentucky.
I’m watching northern and eastern Kentucky for the potential of picking up on an inch or so of snow. Some delays and cancellations are very possible on Tuesday.
Our late week winter storm signal continues to show up for much of Kentucky and surrounding regions. This signal has been on our radar well before the models started picking up on it, but they are picking up on it in a big way.
Here’s the latest GFS, showing our rain to snow system Thursday into Friday…
The Canadian continues to correct back toward a more southern solution…
The European Model is a little farther south of that…
The south trend is something to watch for in the coming days. I think this system has a better chance to go south than north.
This is a pattern loaded with arctic shots and snow threats, with the next round possible by late next Sunday and Monday…
I will have updates later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.
The Robin’s aren’t going to like this at all.
I have had thousands of Robins in my backyard all winter. In past winters we would hardly see any Robins. Love feeding and watching the various birds species around my cabin, and also the deer.
Iām going to be highly upset if this storm misses us to south/southeast! I love you my friends in southeast KY but you get plenty of upslope snow with your upslope effect each winter. Lol!
Wrong
Andy, why is the statement above wrong ? I have heard of up slope precipitation in elevated areas. I sometimes think we have it to occur in my county of Taylor.
Thanks Chris for the updates on the various weather computer models. It’s like every storm this winter, a waiting game. Have a great Sunday, the sun could make an appearance later today.
Too bad that it is not cold enough in the upper levels today. If it was, southeastern Kentucky and Tennessee would be getting a decent snowstorm as a lot of Gulf moisture is present.
The mythical dome still exists in SE Kentucky. We have not had a really good snow in almost two decades. Those good snows that most of central Kentucky got a couple of years ago did not happen here. Andy is right..
He’s channeling is inner Ben š
Oops, meant Jeff. I know a Ben Hamlin though.
Fake news.
I constantly hear upslope in WV. It gets a lot of media attention. But in the area I live, it never delivers anything but flurries. You have to get about 50 miles East, North or South of Charleston to get anything more. If you are in the Western part of the state, like me, it is a non-event. I suspect Northeastern KY is much the same.
In West Virginia, where the Rhododendrons grow wild is the areas that get the most snow and rain. West Virginia is a beautiful state regardless of where you live in the state.
Agree, SE KY needs this.
Depends on the area in SE KY. We have a major ‘shadow’ effect here in Harlan as Pine/Black MT blocks a lot of the NW flow in Harlan but Cumberland and Bledsoe, for example, are on the N and NW side of the mountain chain and do well with lake effect enhancement!
And, in general, SE KY misses a lot of the bigger systems due to the surge of warm air unless the low tracks to the SE of the apps…Apps Runner
Agreed, and interesting information Terry.
Very true and same dynamics in Middlesboro Terry. The city sits in a dominantly flat 10sq mile meteor crater, surrounded on 4 sides by mountains 500ft or more above the valley. No upslope here (dustings at best) and generally speaking, rain to snow storms also rarely work out as the surrounding circumference even the valley into Tennessee literally 1 mile away will have an inch or two of snow on the ground before we see the first flake. On the flip side , it has also snowed here when no one else gets snow (for example 8″ on Dec 8, 2008 while the surrounding areas outside the city only received an inch or two) . Very weird dynamics here as well.
Two terms I hate hearing in Winter. Backside flurries and upslope snow. Not a dimes worth difference in either one where I live. Both are just a nuisance and always lead to way more salt than snow flakes.
Rounding up….
Based on the 1981-2010 climate records, today January 28 in Lexington , the average temperature will be going up from here.
Louisville’s average temperature started going up on the 26th.
I don’t think Old Man Winter keeps up with climate records, though.
Thanks Chris. The south trend seems the way it goes this season. Is it because the models underestimate the Arctic air and therefore the position of the cold front? Anyhow, if this thing delivers in East TN on Friday we’ll probably have to work from home (and school will be canceled in advance). Will be interesting to see the trend once the NAM is in range. It looks like the energy comes ashore Tuesday.
Great news/trends for those in Tennessee. We missed out on the big totals with Irma a few weeks ago.
????
Not sure what you mean ???. In this situation, a southern trend is favorable for snow lovers south of the KY/TN state line.
A far strong low that tracks from West to east in the far northern dixie states just south of the TN border like the 1994 January storm that shut Nashville/Knoxville and all areas north of I-40 down or app runners like the 93 March Super Storm are the best scenarios for good East TN hits….SE KY fairs well from both of those tracks as well!
What’s Irma got to do with it. Unless you don’t mean Hurricane Irma ?
I think he meant the NWS name for winter storm inga!
Man, if it were ever dynamically possible to have a hurricane like Irma become a hybrid like Sandy and actually snow over 50 inches worth of rain….well do the math: 100s of inches of snow, even on very high wet snow liquid ratio!
Correct. Meant Inga.
OK
Terry do you really want that much snow at one time ? Fifteen inches is a big plenty for one storm. LOL
I’ll wait one more day…And its game on.
Sure looks like cold air lurking from the Canuks with arctic highs..Models have teased all winter with overrunning events..Could this be the month?.
Overrunning events equals ICE. We do not want that for sure !!!
Correction: Canadians sounds better and more polite.
I understand why CB says Region instead of Kentucky now š Them models are cray cray š Whatever happens, seems a decent shot for the Kentucky part to perhaps get something frozen.
Local Mets here say gfs is to progressive and models will trend back northwest in next couple days but chrisc says opposite? I’m not sure well just see.
So either the 12z GFS is completely out to lunch or the GFS has completely lost the storm for later this week.
So typical of the GFS to lose the storm this far out. In 2-3 days it will pick it back up like it never lost it.
Flat lined..lol..Have too say GFS has been one of the worst models in the short and medium range..Needs another upgrade or shot with a 12 gauge..
It will come back around so typical the GFS is.
Yep, lose the system five days out and have it roaring back in the three day window. In a way it’s good news because it’s predictable.
The 12z Canadian is still showing a potent storm with good snow fall for many.
Looks like the GFS is having trouble handling this storm and the one that looks pretty potent for the end of weekend and the beginning of next week.
Funny how the Canadian has a really good hit of snow statewide and the GFS has nothing. Guess we shall see what the Euro says in about 1.5 hrs.
Knowing the Euro it will be right in the middle somewhere.
Ooh..Another one on its heels at 180..Don’t think it was even showing this one on earlier runs..Guess we know in 5 days..
Wow! Here we go again. Glad to see we have another good storm to track! Euro runs soon, can someone post a link to that when it runs?
When it comes to tracking a snowstorm with the said computer models I’m out. Over and out. LOL
The models are trying to make something out of nothing (the systems do not really exist yet), so is why they agree, disagree, contradict, etc and more importantly, mainly miss every time. Our big ones this winter only panned out for a few and are so varied, CB terms as Region instead of Kentucky.
Picking cherries is only good for pies and sundaes.
Maybe in a few years we will enter into an ENSO EL nino winter, then the snowstorms will come out of the southwest than the dryer northwest. This is the phase we were in a few years back when we had those block buster snowstorms.
correction: rather than
12z GFS run for 2/1-2/2 is a yikes. Just one run. It has been amazingly consistent the last week. Too early to get excited for anything at this point.