Tracking The Snow Threats

Good Thursday, everyone. We have a very active winter weather setup ahead of us, and things get started out there today. A cold front will bring rain and a quick change to wet snow from northwest to southeast, then another snow and mix system moves in this weekend.

Before we get to the snow, we have to go through some rain. That develops on top of the region early today…

Cold air crashes in from northwest to southeast, leading to a rapid switch to wet snow. It’s likely to snow hard for a few hours, with big fat flakes coming down. Those flakes will have to overcome a wet ground, which will lead to some melting, but we should see sloppy accumulations taking place.

Here’s the latest thinking on that…

My worry is it snows faster than it can melt, leading to some higher end totals for parts of the region, especially the south and southeast. Several of the latest computer forecasts are hinting at this…

NAM

Hi Res NAM

GFS

Travel conditions will go downhill quickly this evening as temps drop below freezing. Readings hit the teens by Friday morning, with a flash freeze a possibility.

The weekend system is a little more convoluted looking on the latest model runs. We are seeing the current runs a little out of synch with a system in the northern branch of the jet, and another in the southern branch. These appear to be fighting it out instead of working together.

This is giving us more of a snow, rain, snow look from late Saturday through Sunday…

Canadian

GFS

Even in this back and forth scenario, several inches of snow can fall across parts of Kentucky. I want to see if today’s runs cut out the dueling systems, before possibly upgrading.

I will have updates later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.


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37 Responses to Tracking The Snow Threats

  1. Formerly from KY says:

    06z Nam shows the southern storm winning out and just plain old rain with little snow will have to wait and see what today’s model runs do.

  2. Farmer 43 says:

    Most of time rain wins looks as though we’re entering a period of the snow is close but if u want snow u better move to Indiana pretty much sums up the forecast

  3. Bobt says:

    Looks like models once again got it wrong less than a week out. The best bet for snow was tonight and the weekend system of mixed precipitation messed that up. Pushed the promising system out too quick to bring in a lot of moisture without enough cold air. Funny how a brutally cold start to February still puts Kentucky on the fence.

  4. Formerly from KY says:

    Looks like the only threat Chris is you going to need is a flood threat because lots of rain is coming that way.

  5. Formerly from KY says:

    But here in Pennsylvania where I am the local Met out of Erie are still calling for to 2 ft of snow to fall over the next 5 days. To bad I couldn’t ship the cold and snow to Kentucky. Won’t have fun shoveling over the next 5-7 days.

    • WishIWasElsa says:

      I am jealous of your 2 ft of snow!

    • Schroeder says:

      You are lucky to have Lake Erie, just to your north and west. A great move if you like to garden with ornamental plants, such as Azaleas and Rhododendrons, as these plants love to be covered by snow in the winter for added protection. In my opinion, that area is the best place to live in the northeastern part of the country. I’m too old now, but if I was younger I would make the move now and start my nursery there. Enjoy the snow, here we will have to enjoy the slop.

  6. Jirvin1120 says:

    First I have heard of Rain coming in on the Sunday snow.

  7. BengalFan says:

    Bet on the rain……everytime.
    What happen to February being artic cold? The cold was supposed to be pushing south…it looks like maybe the cold isn’t that strong?

    • Formerly from KY says:

      This time of the year the Arctic jet gets pushed to the north by the more stronger southern jet. Meaning rain most of the time, that’s what my Air Force weather Officer friend said is happening with this weekend’s storm.

    • BubbaG says:

      This. Since the trend went from arctic cold to less, expect the trend towards warmer to continue.

  8. Schroeder says:

    Rain to snow hardly ever amounts to anything. However, with the blocking pattern in the Arctic, the Polar Vortex has no place to go but south. Unfortunately, it is forecast to go no farther than the southern Great Lakes, which would place the Ohio Valley in very shallow cold air, which translates to more of a rain event or maybe mix than snow on Sunday’s event. It seems like getting a major snowstorm in our area this year is like milking a bull. LOL

  9. B H says:

    I’m just going to look out the window to get my forecast for the day. Most of these forecasts for big snow storms have not work out this winter. They can keep the cold in Canada. Bring on spring.

  10. Farmer 43 says:

    Think about this for a moment every snow system this winter which hasn’t been many has been forecasted wrong even the day of not necessarily the meteorologist fault but tells u how bad the models really are maybe today might be a major snow instead of rain it is the day of lol

  11. Lotsasnow says:

    Local met says 3 inches of rain over the next week flooding likely

  12. Jimbo says:

    I said it 24 hours ago…….only threat for Sunday is a flood threat. I guess the cold returning in February was true. It just returns for short 24 hour engagements every every 3 days following a rain event.

  13. Drew says:

    What time can we expect the changeover to snow this evening/tonight in the Ashland area?

  14. Goose 58 says:

    Think back on our best snows. Rarely have they been forecast from a week out, much less a couple of days. Seems like it is almost always a Nowcast situation. Whether you go back to 1994 system which was only supposed to be some freezing rain/mix to an inch of snow or the system a couple of weeks ago where we were only supposed to get an inch and got 5″ in Fern Creek. Always a surprise. We live in the hardest place in the world to forecast winter weather. I remember a snow on March 31st of ’87 that was just supposed to be flurries. We had 9″ where I lived in Bullitt County. Fun times this model frustration!

  15. Jeff Hamlin says:

    I’m fine with rain because the only salt crust I want is on a fine seafood dish instead of the roads and my car.

  16. Cold Rain says:

    Seeing signs of a major warm up in the not to distant future..Hope it’s right..Been a dud of a winter unless you liked dry frigid cold and high heating bills..Model’s was bad as ever..Just goes to show long range forecasting has a way to go..Even short range was still a guess this winter..Still is fun tracking in the boredom of winter..Maybe we can still get a surprise and something to look at for a few days before it melts and drips down the gutters..

  17. Tom says:

    New NAM is showing a good snowfall across most of Ky. Seems to be trending further south and colder than the previous run.

  18. Cold Rain says:

    The ICON is running..

    • MarkS says:

      Cold Rain is the right username for this entire month. Not sure why there is build up for a snowy Feb. And I say “Not sure” because I have no clue either way, just finding zero hint of that on other weather blogs…we will see. I’m ready for 70 degrees, so maybe it’s just me not wanting a snowy/Cold Feb lol

  19. BubbaG says:

    CB, good luck forecasting snow totals for February. Seems warmer air and ground are big wild cards to snow totals. Mix for most seems the best bet, but you do not have that luxury to generalize or presume that 😉

    We need one of those big almost can’t fail systems like we got a few years ago. They snowed so much warmer air was not a factor and then the air cooled more due to the snow. Seems not in the cards though this winter.

  20. Troy says:

    I’ll give an early congrats to the usual winners of a couple inches as well as the overachievers of 3-5″. We here in southern KY will be content with our usual flash flood watches and mud. 😉

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