Another Messy System This Weekend

Good Saturday, everyone. After a small break in the action, another winter weather maker is on the way tonight into Super Bowl Sunday. This is a system that can bring a slushy snowfall and a wintry mix to much of the Commonwealth.

Here’s a breakdown of what I’m expecting:

  • A wintry mix and snow develops across the west late this evening, then increases as it rolls eastward overnight.
  • A healthy band of wet snow will develop on the leading edge of the main precipitation shield.
  • Slushy accumulations of a coating to a few inches will be possible for many areas, with the greatest risk across the northern two-thirds of the state.
  • There is even the potential for a touch of freezing rain in some of the cold valleys of eastern and southeastern Kentucky early Sunday morning.
  • The snow and mix will change to light rain for a time, then end quickly by the middle of the day on Sunday.
  • Temps then crash late Sunday, with another round of light snow diving in from the northwest.
  • Snow showers and flurries continue across the east into Monday morning.

The Hi Res NAM shows the above scenario quite well…

Snow

Freezing Rain

The system rolling in for Tuesday and Wednesday continues to look more and more interesting as we get closer. It’s a stronger storm system starting to track a littler farther south and east with each model run. That’s actually been the winter trend for just about each system we have tracked this go around, bucking the historic trend for our region.

The Canadian Model is farther south, placing the fence right on top of us…

The European Model was way north with the last run, but came way south and east this run. It brings the frozen precipitation threat back into Kentucky…

Again, all of that was well to our north in prior runs.

Speaking of north, that’s where the GFS is, but it’s trying to bend south some…

 


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27 Responses to Another Messy System This Weekend

  1. B H says:

    Thanks Chris for the update.

  2. Brenda Thorpe says:

    Looks like February is going to keep you busy. Thanks for always keeping us informed.
    Have a great day

  3. Formerly from KY says:

    To me I think Chris sometimes get little excited about these systems a week out and then nothing happens. I remember early in the week when he showed a map of all the blocking highs and said that a lot of cold air was going be in place while i looked a few days later and those blocking highs were gone allowing warmer to push north. Point is weather changes every day and going on one signal is fruitless. And you notice Chris hasn’t showed that map of all the blocking highs and all the Arctic air since.

  4. Schroeder says:

    Just looked at the Ventusky Map and it presently shows a large blocking High just west of Alaska and just east of Greenland, and also along the Pacific coast and in the Atlantic. Chris can’t report everything, he is concentrating on the upcoming weather events for tonight through next week. I remember we had this pattern years ago and in February and March we had two heavy snowstorms here in the Ohio Valley. I believe after studying the maps this morning we are going to get our biggest snows this month and in March and maybe in early April. But, the above is my weather findings, and we will see how it pans out. Thanks Chris for your hard work on weather research, and take care.

    • Formerly from KY says:

      Thanks for correcting me missed blocking high over Greenland which looking at barely moves in the up coming weeks.

      • Formerly from KY says:

        Schroeder your also right Chris can only worry about current weather even from where I am in Northwestern Pennsylvania I still watch WKYT News on my Roku me and my wife have a lot of family in Kentucky and like to keep up with the news back home.

  5. MarkS says:

    Rain Tuesday and Wednesday…..i can hear the birds chirping…come on spring weathee

  6. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. I wish you had better news but here in southern and southeastern Kentucky, we are used to cold rain. So it’s not really out of the norm for us. Anyway, we will make the best of it and move on. I’d still like one good snow. Could you maybe talk to the weather gods and ask them to combine these things and put down one good one? Have a great Saturday everyone.

  7. Rodger in Dodger says:

    Being on the fence can mean cold rain and sometimes heavy wet snow. This sure has been a 180 switch from last winter when we had basically no cold or snow. Nobody tells Mother Nature what to do 🙂 Rodger in Dodger

  8. Jimmie says:

    Those pinks in north-central KY on the Euro’s Tues-Wed map don’t look good…

  9. bgbecky says:

    When I look at this update I see rain, rain, rain for Bowling Green, but I am actually ok with that! I am a little confused as to wear the artic air is that was supposed to come south. I feel like weather “predicting” has become virtually impossible…and nowcasting instead of forecasting!

  10. bgbecky says:

    When I look at this update I see rain, rain, rain for Bowling Green, but I am actually ok with that! I am a little confused as to wear the artic air is that was supposed to come south. I feel like weather “predicting” has become virtually impossible…and nowcasting instead of forecasting!

  11. Melva says:

    I think at this point the Huntington/Ashland area can expect some flurries or slush, thankfully our winter seems to be over..Ready for warm weather and sunshine!!

  12. Rickie H says:

    Thankful for the water ever which way it comes, our area is in a drought and we need it ever how it wants to fall. It won’t be long until garden season will be here and to start out at or above normal is always good. To start out in drought, not good!
    Thank you Chris for your time and information!

    • Schroeder says:

      Always a chance for a drought occurring some where, and currently to our west is the most severe at this time. When I was in the nursery business years ago, there was never a year where I didn’t have to irrigate my crops.

  13. Troy says:

    Winter isn’t over yet. We all have one more month of meteorological winter left, though our average high temperatures rise everyday as the angle of the sun changes. and anything can happen though the chances are dwindling. We will definitely get cold shots…probably til April and maybe some snow chances as well but have to admit the fun, anticipation, and excitement for potential snow has vanished and I’m definitely ready for warm temps, sunshine, and Spring.

    • Schroeder says:

      With the Solar cycle we are currently in, Spring is likely to be late. I remember 1964, Spring didn’t come in till early May. The Solar cycle then is what we have now.

  14. BengalFan says:

    “Just a bit outside”

    I really wish Chris would explain what happened to the artic cold air!

    It’s like listening to football analysts explain before a big game who is favored to winn and why….then the game happens and the other team won…then football analysts explain why the other team won.

    • Schroeder says:

      I have been watching the Arctic since winter begin, and the area to our north is extremely frigid. My reasoning on why the Arctic air has not move into our area is that the westerlies moving quickly from west to east at present, thus modification of the cold air is taking place. I feel this will change soon and we will be back in the freezer, and hopefully with a snowstorm to tract.

    • Mike S says:

      NAO+ works against keeping the coldest air in place. Then again NAO has been positive most of the winter and we still have below normal temperatures. Western ridge has been the most dominant pattern this winter…we get the cold but makes for less snowfall as moisture is cut off from the main pump, the Gulf of Mexico. So, we have to work with moderating temperatures just to get our best significant snow chance, here along the Great Fence of Kentucky….
      Pats 31
      The Birds 24

  15. which way is the wind blowing says:

    If you want snow the NAM has the best outcome.
    I planning for another cold rain event.

  16. Lizard says:

    Darn that groundhog! Flurries in Ashland probably cold rain (bleah) we need a big honest snow not the pitterpat stuff!

  17. LizB says:

    I’m sure with Chris trying to predict all possibilities, it’s something you have to watch every couple of hours. (Sort of like the upcoming Superbowl) This is a good way to guestimate whether or not I can get to church and back Sunday. Thanks Chris

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