Winter Weather and Heavy Rain Ahead

Good Tuesday, everyone. We are starting our day with a touch of light snow, but the main show arrives this evening into Wednesday. This storm will bring heavy rain, ice and some snow to the bluegrass state. This can cause some issues in our part of the world.

Here’s a breakdown:

  • Our wintry mix increases from southwest to northeast this evening.
  • That action becomes heavy overnight and into Wednesday morning.
  • An extended period of freezing rain may develop from western Kentucky through the bluegrass region to northeastern Kentucky. Ice accumulation may be from .10″ to as much as .50″ in a few areas.
  • Any area getting more than .25″ of freezing rain can see some decent issues develop.
  • Some snow is also possible in the freezing rain areas, especially early Wednesday.
  • Heavy rainfall totals of 1″-2.5″ will be possible across southern and eastern Kentucky. Local high water issues may develop.

Here’s a look at my current thinking on the main impacts…

The new European Model is very similar with the corridor of freezing rain…

You can see all this playing out on the GFS from this evening through Wednesday afternoon…

Here are the models showing how much liquid precipitation falls from this system…

GFS

NAM

I will have updates later today, so check back. Until then, here’s regional radar to track the very light snow in the north and northeast this morning…

Have a good one and take care.


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47 Responses to Winter Weather and Heavy Rain Ahead

  1. B H says:

    Not looking forward to the ice here in Southern Ohio.

    • Mark513 says:

      Same here B H! I live 20 miles North of Downtown Cincinnati in the Forest Park area. I hope it’s more snow up this way. I don’t want any Ice. Be safe!

      • KBinNKY says:

        Same here, live in Kenton County. NAM and Canadian calling for trace snow and .4 inch of ice for my area, GFS 3 inches of snow and .1 of ice, hope GFS wins this time

      • B H says:

        Mark 513 I live a little over 100 miles due east of you. They are saying here up to 4 inches of snow and 2 tenth’s ice possible. Going to get slick.

  2. Justin says:

    Here’s to hoping the models are wrong and we get a thumper!

    • BubbaG says:

      This is more like the ice storm nine years ago, but thankfully less cold air. This could have been an epics smackdown, but in a bad way. Bunch of ice and a few inches of heavy snow on top.

    • feederband says:

      Schroeder says it’s going to be all snow so you can take that to the bank:)

      • BubbaG says:

        Schroedy hopefully took advice and is staying away from firearms and vehicles. Expanded also to no heavy machinery.

      • B H says:

        Wouldn’t it be something if he was right. How would all the doubter’s respond to that?

        • BubbaG says:

          That would be an epic cold air dip. Lots of ice and snow for the state. Power outages galore. I prefer cold rain to wash the salt off rather than power being out 🙂

          • Prelude says:

            BubbaG even if the freezing rain does develop this storm is not even in the same league as 2009 not even remotely close.

            • WM says:

              I hope you’re right. That storm was horrific.

              • Prelude says:

                I agree it was horrific. Seems like every time there is a threat for freezing rain most people think of 2009. I get that but 2009 was a rare ice storm not the norm. There hasn’t been a ice storm like that since 2009.

  3. Formerly from KY says:

    What no heavy snow for Kentucky that can’t be possible.

    • Formerly from KY says:

      My Air Force Weather Officer buddy said the chances were high for flooding in some parts of Kentucky.

      • Stormtracker_WV says:

        I appreciate you sharing info from your “Air Force Weather Officer Buddy” with us–because I love the Air Force, and I love weather people, and that makes an “Air Force Weather Officer Buddy” about the most awesome person you can be!!! LOL And have mentioned before you are in the PA area, correct? I love that folks from all around the region post their local observations so we know what’s going on all around, and in a “tri-state” area like this, folks commute to border states, so this helps keep everyone “in-the-know” and safe 🙂

        • Formerly from KY says:

          He’s a Captain and teaches meteorology at the Air Force Academy. Yes I live in Northwestern Pennsylvania. But from Eastern Kentucky.

  4. Formerly from KY says:

    Looking at the Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day weather outlook were expecting above normal temps in a big parts the Eastern conus region. Looks like the chances a major winter snow event are slipping away as we head deeping into winter.

    • Bernard P. Fife says:

      Yep, Thelma Lou says snow chances are just like time it keeps on slippin….slippin…slippin, into the future!

    • BubbaG says:

      It was supposed to get colder with more snow chances. Models are just as bad with cold air as outlooking cold air. Dim’ models cray cray.

    • BubbaG says:

      I would suggest CB shifts the blog to more sports talk, but the cats appear similar to our winter snow results. Kind of same thing.

  5. SnowLover13 says:

    I really wish this thing would drop south. I need a snow or ice day!!

  6. Rodger in Dodger says:

    This will either be a big flop or a bigger storm surprise. Lots of elements coming together for major ice and Rodger’s thinking more sleet on north side than what’s being predicted. Rodger in Dodger

    • BubbaG says:

      CB would be picking up on it and tweeting threat mode by now if more frozen. No threat mode makes me surprised CB has the map posted above. Verbatim to the map, it would be a threat mode for folks north of I64. Seems mostly rain.

      Good indicator is the coating to an inch for last night was mainly nothing for most (not even a coating). If that panned out or over-performed- then the next system might have more teeth.

  7. Snow says:

    Is this for Wayne County WV areas as well or is this expected to miss us?

    • Stormtracker_WV says:

      Too soon too tell because you are right on the border of the mix/all-rain line, but I would bet the at least some of the hollows and hilltops of Wayne County will get some freezing precipitation of some type before it turns to all rain…

  8. Formerly from KY says:

    Flood watch for parts of Northeastern Kentucky.

  9. Joey says:

    Yawn for us in south central KY. I hate cold rain! Hope my friends up north get snow… not ice. Still curious where this cold the models showed for the last 3 weeks is.

    • Jamie says:

      I guess they thought the Polar Vortex up around Hudson Bay in Canada would move south into the lower 48, but it didn’t come as south as they thought it would, if it moved at all. I wonder why as well.

      • Formerly from KY says:

        Looking at maps looks like that polar air will stay near the Hudson Bay as we are heading towards a milder period over the next two weeks or so.

      • Mike S says:

        Not much blocking on the Atlantic side. It’s like a pinball in those pinball machines (do they still have those?). If you have both sides of the board blocked, the ball will tend to stay in play longer (again offset by your use of the flippers). But, if only one side of the board is blocked, the ball’s chances of remaining in play goes down too. Therefore, the Atlantic blocking near Greenland has been underperforming lately, and yet it still has been a cold winter overall.

  10. Jimmie says:

    Temperatures are a lot colder than forecast so far today here in Lexington. Forecast high of 40F but it’s only 31F at 11am. Unless it warms substantially in the next few hours, the rain/freezing rain ratio will shift a lot more towards ice.

    • Prelude says:

      31 degrees and forecast high of 40 that’s very easily attainable it’s only 11am. Forecast high doesn’t usually occurred till around that 3pm-4pm time frame

  11. Lburg SniwDog says:

    CB….which models have been performing the best over the last 2-3 weeks? I know the Euro had been outperforming earlier…thanks for all you do..

  12. Prelude says:

    Oh where oh where can that Schroeder be…. Hmmmm….. crickets

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