Good Tuesday, everyone. We are starting our day with a touch of light snow, but the main show arrives this evening into Wednesday. This storm will bring heavy rain, ice and some snow to the bluegrass state. This can cause some issues in our part of the world.
Here’s a breakdown:
- Our wintry mix increases from southwest to northeast this evening.
- That action becomes heavy overnight and into Wednesday morning.
- An extended period of freezing rain may develop from western Kentucky through the bluegrass region to northeastern Kentucky. Ice accumulation may be from .10″ to as much as .50″ in a few areas.
- Any area getting more than .25″ of freezing rain can see some decent issues develop.
- Some snow is also possible in the freezing rain areas, especially early Wednesday.
- Heavy rainfall totals of 1″-2.5″ will be possible across southern and eastern Kentucky. Local high water issues may develop.
Here’s a look at my current thinking on the main impacts…
The new European Model is very similar with the corridor of freezing rain…
You can see all this playing out on the GFS from this evening through Wednesday afternoon…
Here are the models showing how much liquid precipitation falls from this system…
GFS
NAM
I will have updates later today, so check back. Until then, here’s regional radar to track the very light snow in the north and northeast this morning…
Have a good one and take care.
Not looking forward to the ice here in Southern Ohio.
Same here B H! I live 20 miles North of Downtown Cincinnati in the Forest Park area. I hope it’s more snow up this way. I don’t want any Ice. Be safe!
Same here, live in Kenton County. NAM and Canadian calling for trace snow and .4 inch of ice for my area, GFS 3 inches of snow and .1 of ice, hope GFS wins this time
Mark 513 I live a little over 100 miles due east of you. They are saying here up to 4 inches of snow and 2 tenth’s ice possible. Going to get slick.
I live in Covington and I’m hoping the snow-only line goes about 40 miles south. I don’t want to deal with ice and power outages .
Ugh, new NAM has .6 ice in Walton Ky..
Here’s to hoping the models are wrong and we get a thumper!
This is more like the ice storm nine years ago, but thankfully less cold air. This could have been an epics smackdown, but in a bad way. Bunch of ice and a few inches of heavy snow on top.
Schroeder says it’s going to be all snow so you can take that to the bank:)
Schroedy hopefully took advice and is staying away from firearms and vehicles. Expanded also to no heavy machinery.
Wouldn’t it be something if he was right. How would all the doubter’s respond to that?
That would be an epic cold air dip. Lots of ice and snow for the state. Power outages galore. I prefer cold rain to wash the salt off rather than power being out 🙂
BubbaG even if the freezing rain does develop this storm is not even in the same league as 2009 not even remotely close.
I hope you’re right. That storm was horrific.
I agree it was horrific. Seems like every time there is a threat for freezing rain most people think of 2009. I get that but 2009 was a rare ice storm not the norm. There hasn’t been a ice storm like that since 2009.
What no heavy snow for Kentucky that can’t be possible.
My Air Force Weather Officer buddy said the chances were high for flooding in some parts of Kentucky.
I appreciate you sharing info from your “Air Force Weather Officer Buddy” with us–because I love the Air Force, and I love weather people, and that makes an “Air Force Weather Officer Buddy” about the most awesome person you can be!!! LOL And have mentioned before you are in the PA area, correct? I love that folks from all around the region post their local observations so we know what’s going on all around, and in a “tri-state” area like this, folks commute to border states, so this helps keep everyone “in-the-know” and safe 🙂
He’s a Captain and teaches meteorology at the Air Force Academy. Yes I live in Northwestern Pennsylvania. But from Eastern Kentucky.
Looking at the Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day weather outlook were expecting above normal temps in a big parts the Eastern conus region. Looks like the chances a major winter snow event are slipping away as we head deeping into winter.
Yep, Thelma Lou says snow chances are just like time it keeps on slippin….slippin…slippin, into the future!
It was supposed to get colder with more snow chances. Models are just as bad with cold air as outlooking cold air. Dim’ models cray cray.
I would suggest CB shifts the blog to more sports talk, but the cats appear similar to our winter snow results. Kind of same thing.
Headed to Rupp tonight, for what very well be my LAST visit. Season ticket prices went over $5,000 this year time to move to FLA.
Next year though the Cats should be very good 🙂 Really 🙂
That’s what you said last you. Your like the week away storm. Looks good in the distance. Lol. Just kidding
I really wish this thing would drop south. I need a snow or ice day!!
For you to get a lot of snow this storm needs to shift to the East in a big way and real soon.
This will either be a big flop or a bigger storm surprise. Lots of elements coming together for major ice and Rodger’s thinking more sleet on north side than what’s being predicted. Rodger in Dodger
CB would be picking up on it and tweeting threat mode by now if more frozen. No threat mode makes me surprised CB has the map posted above. Verbatim to the map, it would be a threat mode for folks north of I64. Seems mostly rain.
Good indicator is the coating to an inch for last night was mainly nothing for most (not even a coating). If that panned out or over-performed- then the next system might have more teeth.
Is this for Wayne County WV areas as well or is this expected to miss us?
Too soon too tell because you are right on the border of the mix/all-rain line, but I would bet the at least some of the hollows and hilltops of Wayne County will get some freezing precipitation of some type before it turns to all rain…
Flood watch for parts of Northeastern Kentucky.
I wouldn’t be surprised if that is not expanded over the next few hours.
Flood watch also out for western and west-central West Virginia
Yawn for us in south central KY. I hate cold rain! Hope my friends up north get snow… not ice. Still curious where this cold the models showed for the last 3 weeks is.
I guess they thought the Polar Vortex up around Hudson Bay in Canada would move south into the lower 48, but it didn’t come as south as they thought it would, if it moved at all. I wonder why as well.
Looking at maps looks like that polar air will stay near the Hudson Bay as we are heading towards a milder period over the next two weeks or so.
Not much blocking on the Atlantic side. It’s like a pinball in those pinball machines (do they still have those?). If you have both sides of the board blocked, the ball will tend to stay in play longer (again offset by your use of the flippers). But, if only one side of the board is blocked, the ball’s chances of remaining in play goes down too. Therefore, the Atlantic blocking near Greenland has been underperforming lately, and yet it still has been a cold winter overall.
Temperatures are a lot colder than forecast so far today here in Lexington. Forecast high of 40F but it’s only 31F at 11am. Unless it warms substantially in the next few hours, the rain/freezing rain ratio will shift a lot more towards ice.
31 degrees and forecast high of 40 that’s very easily attainable it’s only 11am. Forecast high doesn’t usually occurred till around that 3pm-4pm time frame
CB….which models have been performing the best over the last 2-3 weeks? I know the Euro had been outperforming earlier…thanks for all you do..
None
Oh where oh where can that Schroeder be…. Hmmmm….. crickets
He’s warming up his snow blower.
I think it’s still too cold for crickets chirping…couldn’t resist.
Just as much as I think the SW flow will dominate tonight and keep any real snow chances in Southern Indiana and Ohio. I’m thinking that’s pretty much a given.