Tracking The Weekend Flood Threat

Good Saturday, everyone. Rounds of heavy rain continue to push in from the southwest and will continue into Sunday. This may put down enough water to cause some flooding problems to develop, especially across the south and east.

This is where we continue to find a Flood Watch through Sunday…

Rainfall totals of 1″-4″ continue to look like a  good bet across much of this region. Given the already soggy ground, that would be more than enough to cause some flooding and flash flooding. Local amounts of 4″+ may try to show up in pockets, leading to an even greater threat for flooding.

The last wave of moisture moving through Sunday night and Monday morning may be in mixed form. The European continues to show this…

I will be at the WKYT Sport, Boat and Recreation Show at Rupp for much of the day, so I won’t be able to update until late.

I leave you with your tracking tools…

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio

Fifth Third Pavilion Live Cam
Downtown Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike

US 60 @ US 127
US60 @ US127


I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ Buttermilk Pike

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway



I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

Mountain Parkway near Slade

I-75 at MP 23


Pine Mountain

Louie B Nunn MP 3
Near Glasgow
Louie B Nunn MP 3

Natcher Parkway MP 5
Near Bowling Green
Natcher Parkway @ MP 5

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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74 Responses to Tracking The Weekend Flood Threat

  1. Virgil says:


  2. Bjenks says:

    Quick! Everyone post thier comments now before you know who wakes up. LOL

    I know the GFS is showing a rain to snow event next weekend into Presidents Day. While I am one of the biggest snow lovers here at KWC, I know that all the models are garbage a week out, this is the absolute worst weekend for it to snow. Traveling to St. Louis Friday to Coach volleyball and for the safety of all traveling hate to see the potential. Hopefully it turns out to be a all rain event.

    • J. says:

      And exactly what proof do you have that Schroeder and the Admiral are one and the same? I think we both know the answer to that…

      At the risk of making people angry, behavior like this – from long-time posters, even, who should DEFINITELY know better – is why the comments section is suffering.

      • Bjenks says:

        J. I have never said they are the same. You must have me mixed up with Ralph….and what behavior may you be speaking of. I only made my comment because I am one that has been on the KWC for over nine years and really like to read the comments. I can do without AA’s non weather comments and such after each person comments. It gets old kinda like the models a week out.

        • Admiral Ackbar says:

          I like to respond to each user’s post because I like to have a dialogue with the everyone who decide to participate in the comment section. This area is meant for discussion. I just do happen to like to discuss things.

    • BubbaG says:

      Surprised CB has been so Shrokbar tolerant. Perhaps the constant snow model misses this winter have CB shellshocked. That and the Cats following a similar trend could make a person a little numb.

      • Admiral Ackbar says:

        You all know for a fact that I am not Schroeder l, but you continue to equate me with him or her. Honestly, go back and look at Schroeader’s vocabulary, grammar, syntax, sentence structure, and reading level at which her/his posts are written. Go back after YEARS of posting on this blog and see that the user cannot properly spell the smallest of words. Then look at my posts and read how quickly I respond to users with high level writing. If I am Schroeder, you are accepting that he/she has been a “long con” for years or I am pulling a “long con” right now. Your equating of me to Schroeder honestly does not add up, and the evidence is nil. How about we meet up in person and I will show you exactly who I am? I can meet you in Lousville at the fanciest dining establishment or the dirtiest dive in town. We can have a live face-to-face discussion about the weather, and I will even stream it on YouTube so that everyone else can see that I know what I am talking about when it comes to understanding Earth Science. I realize that my Master’s Degree is Chemistry and my bachelor’s degrees in Chemisty and Physics mean nothing to you, but I think I can hold my own when discussing weather science with you. We can even talk a little bit of differential calculus whenever you get bored. What do you say?

    • Admiral Ackbar says:

      I love how you attack other users before a post is made and without being provoked. Show me ONE post I have EVER written that attacks a user rather than disagree with what was said in the post. Go ahead.

      • Bjenks says:

        Who did i attack? I have never had a disagreement with anyone here at the KWC. Just like many of the ones that have been long time followers, more of a Winter time fanatic, when the comments section hits in the 120,s to 200 comments you might finally get tired of commenting on our comments. I have never mentioned your name in any of my posts. So how is that an attack?

        • Admiral Ackbar says:

          “Quick! Everyone post thier comments now before you know who wakes up. LOL”. It cannot be Schroeder since Schroeder has stating that she/he is no longer commenting here due to the bullying. No one else has really been attacked except me. The evidence would hold well enough in court to suggest that the comment was aimed at me. Why even state “Get in here, folks! Comment before you-know-who gets here!!!”. I mean…why? That was your very first sentence. That is how you lead your entire post. Completely unprovoked. If you are not referring to me, you are still referring to someone else, which, as a user of nine years, I would think that you would have more respect for others since you have seen users come and go on this blog due to bullying issues.

          So, how would you like this blog to operate? You want the comment section more than 10 posts per blog entry, but you want it less than “200”? Show me a comment section that reached more than 200 posts. Can you please tell me the exact number of comments that you want to see on each post? Whenever you reach your arbitrary number, you could then…stop reading the posts. If 36 is your magic number, read 36 posts, take your bat and ball, and then go home until the next blog entry. I like to address all users in this comment section because I think that all users bring something important to the table whenever they are not too busy writing garbage such as “Hey! Get in here and make your posts before you-know-who wakes up! LOL!!!!!!!”. What are you, a child?

          • Debbie says:

            Well, there was January 25,2009, with the impending/occurring ice storm. Then there was a Winter Storm that dumped in excess of 10″ of snow on February 15-18 (or so),2010, for instances.

            • Admiral Ackbar says:

              Those were scary times. I remember those events vividly.

              • Debbie says:

                As do I. The years when this blog was a fun and informative place to hang out. You know-before some became somewhat overly-facetious and begrudgingly disrespectful to other commentors,who, in their seemingly blind mindset, are nowhere near the caliber of brain-power (heh…) they are spewing forth occasionally.

                • Admiral Ackbar says:

                  I remember those times to; before random commenters on this blog were more worried about the posting habits of others and more worried about spilling vitriolic attacks to users rather than discuss the weather. You know, I was a reader back then, and I remember the good times as well. People are more worried about attacking others than actually discussing the content that Chris has posted. You know…like you when I responded to your post about remembering the ice storm of 2009 and then your response was to vaguely refer to the posting habits of another user.

  3. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. A Valentines Day snow would be nice, but I’m ready to welcome some warmer weather and a few of those without raisin. ☔️But whatever. Have a great Saturday, all

    • Admiral Ackbar says:

      I imagine that the special girl or man in your life will feel your heart with so much warmth that the ambient temperature will be of no consequence.

  4. Terry says:

    I have already hit 1.00 here in Harlan at 9:45….could end up being a pretty serious event. WPC has a pretty high risk that SE KY and South Central on down into TN exceed flash flood guidance!

    • Andy Rose says:

      0.85 in my neighborhood Terry

      • Terry says:

        Are you safely above the flood zone area in Barbourville Andy? If not, please be safe as I know how bad it gets down there. My stepmother was from the town area were it got bad pretty frequently! When I was kid visiting her parents, i saw the low areas under water many times down there.

        • Admiral Ackbar says:

          Watersheds always create the worst problems, which is fortunate for the environment for when spring arrives, but displaced so many humans into zones of danger. It can be scary, but just know that for all of the human inconveniences, the environment will be that much better for when Spring and Summer arrive. Tit for tat, darling.

        • Andy Rose says:

          House is fine we may just get cut off from town. If they happens no biggie

          • Admiral Ackbar says:

            Yeah. No different from a snow event. I just hope that you have stocked up on the necessary food and drink for the event that you are stuck in your home. Good luck and stay safe.

    • Admiral Ackbar says:

      Rain totals are a bit on the underside for my residence in Louisville. Updates to follow!

      • Andy Rose says:

        The most I seen the models giving was 3/4ths an inch. There is more to come.

        • Admiral Ackbar says:

          The only think that I wish Chris would do to improve his blog is to provide velocity vector calculations for systems so that a probable timeline of when weather will begin in certain areas could be observed by other users in this blog. I could perform the calculations myself, but I have no way of posting them in this text comment field. It is a simple distance/time calculation that even my 9 year old can compute.

          • BengalFan says:

            Wait a minute, your asking Chris for something??? So here is my answet to you using your exact rude comment you made on me a few days back..
            “Chris does not owe us anything. He operates this blog on top of his WKYT obligations. The man updates this blog at 2:00 am in the morning for Chris’ sake, but you still want him to explain why a guess over one month out from an event did not pan out, pal? Your hubris is somewhat admirable.”

            • Admiral Ackbar says:

              You are right. Chris does not owe me anything. I just wish that he would add velocity vector calculations for weather systems. However, this is his blog. He does not owe me anything about my request. See what I did there? That is different than me throwing a fit and/or whining because I did not get my way on his weather-related blog. I simply stated that it would be neat to have. However, it is not necessary, nor do I DEMAND the change.

  5. Kevin in Richmond says:

    Abundant moisture and of course its 50*. So Kentucky.

  6. Admiral Ackbar says:

    February 10, 2018 at 12:24 am
    To everyone complaining about how the “models are wrong”, let me leave the following with you.

    Actually, the SCIENCE is always there; it is the science that truly is responsible for any and all observed weather. It is OUR scientific models that consider probabilities rather than absolutes that has been giving Kentucky the issues in 2018. We KNOW what causes rain. We KNOW what causes snow. We KNOW what causes wind. We KNOW what causes the temperature to change. We KNOW what factors influence the density and pressure of the air in different regions of the planet. We KNOW how Newton’s Laws, the Laws of Thermodynamics, The Law of Universal Gravitation, The Ideal Gas Law (and Non-Deal version as studied in P-Chem), and we know how Bernoulli’s principles govern the movement of matter in fluids. Mike, we KNOW all of this stuff, and we KNOW the cause of the factors that influence weather. The models, based on the statistical probabilities, are limited in that they can only provide a prediction based on a percentage of how they THINK a system will form and move. These models, while always helpful, are less accurate as the time between the model and the event increases. Do we not remember when a hurricane was supposed to clobber Miami back in the Fall, but it end up affecting the west side of Florida after changing course 10.0 hours out from the storm? See, the water temperature, air temperature, air densities, and differentials of atmospheric conditions are fluid, are heavily complicated, and truly take post-doctoral studies to really even BEGIN to understand how a single particle moves under the influence of forces within a fluid such as air and water.

    Folks, models are not based on “it gon’ snow” or “it not gon snow” or if Chris Bailey had his favorite breakfast in the morning. Even today, weather models are much better at predicting weather than even five years ago. I bet some of you old farts remember back when the “Weather Girl” placed “stickers” on the weather map to indicate where the country would be sunny and where it would be raining. We now have the technology to model, in three dimensions, in real time, the shape, size, and power of a storm as it is traveling across the land. These models are built on the data of previous weather systems, and these models are being refined each day, each hour, each minute, and each second that new data is added to the model’s tables of values.

    I know that it is fun to sit back, look at the models that Chris provides, and act like you are arm-chair meteorologists. However, at the end of the day, your “accurate estimation” of what will happen is insignificant to individuals who read the models as career. If any of you truly consider yourself gifted in “reading, understanding, and predicting” from weather models, then Chris Bailey would be considered the Albert Einstein of the room while you are simply a pretender. Bottom line, there is a reason that some Oceanic and Atmospheric Scientists are making around $750,000 a year while you are at home drawing your Gubmint Check hoping for snow so that it shuts down an entire community so that people who depend on work cannot even go out and make an honest day of living. This is why some of you are pulling in about $22,000 per year complaining every single time that the models do not call for snow.

    Let the rain go away! We do not want floods! We do not want the creeks a risin’. We do not want icky, muddy ground! Nooooooo. Bring on the BIG SNOW so that people without four-wheeled drive vehicles cannot even leave the driveway. Go ahead. Keep calling for the big one while you simultaneously call for the noose of Chris Bailey. I love this place, but I have not seen this much whining, complaining, and eye rolling over the lack of snow since the Presidential Election of 2016.

    • Mike S says:

      No disrespect for your intellect, but this is not a science club. We are the weather weenies and proud of it. We whine about what we don’t get and complain about what we do get. That’s just who we are.
      Personally, I think you talk too much. You should really set up your own blog and have your own little science club. Then you can have barf parties talking about saturation vapor pressure, gold foil experiments, and compression, shear, and Love waves.
      As for us, we are spoon fed the weather from the man himself who orchestrated this forum, yes this is his blog, as in Bailey, without the Barnum, and still The Greatest Show on Earth.

      • Admiral Ackbar says:

        Ok. So, Chris gives links to “tracking tools”, speaks in depth about the models, provides the most beautiful weather maps in all of the realm, and even provides analysis on which models he believes will perform. On top of that, you refer to a Weather Related Blog as not pertaining to science? Weather IS science. Weather is not a “hobby” or “entertainment programming”. The underlying cause of ALL things weather related lead back to scientific principles. You think Chris wants this blog for people to come on here and say, “Weather looking bad! Rodger in Dodger!” and just leave it at that? I think he does not mind what we discuss, but I find it funny that you believe that a weather related blog, with long posts by Chris, and who provides “tracking tools” is not necessarily about the science of weather. That statement is baffling to me. Why can we not have inconsequential discussions about weather along with discussions pertaining to the underlying science and causes for model shifts?

        • Mike S says:

          Why would we want to do that? You have the wrong forum. I am a science enthusiast and would love to share calculations on earthquake intensity comparisons using logarithmic equations, the Great Circle formula that spans 3 lines on my Microsoft Excel program, show how to calculate dewpoint, which does by the way involve saturation vapor pressure…, but that’s why I have my own blog. I come here because I am a weather weenie too. Oh, there is one more thing, as Columbo used to say, you are right about one thing you said earlier, about not attacking a user. But, you attacked all of us with your verbose comment with its stereotypical gibberish.

          • Admiral Ackbar says:

            So, by speaking intelligently and being verbose is somehow “attacking” a user base? Is this truly the Twilight Zone; where speaking like an educated person is frowned upon, looked down upon, and treated as if I have committed a crime? How about I get over your inferior way of communicating through the internet, you accept that I speak “educatedly”, and we get back to discussing the torrential rains that are causing absolute havoc around the Commonwealth of Kentucky? We have people trying to survive this mess, and you are more concerned with my “educated speak”. There is plenty of room for “Weather Weenies” (WTH?) and those of use who love to add science into our discussions. We can both co-exist in a world in which the two of us are not segregated in a divided house.

            • Mike S says:

              while you are at home drawing your Gubmint Check hoping for snow so that it shuts down an entire community so that people “who depend on work cannot even go out and make an honest day of living. This is why some of you are pulling in about $22,000 per year complaining every single time that the models do not call for snow.” By Ad Hak, yes pun intended on ad hoc.

              • Admiral Ackbar says:

                Do we have people on this blog who draw Gubmint checks? Yes. Do we have people on this blog who make $22,000 per year? Yes? Do we have people on this blog who are millionaires? Yes. Do other meteorologists read this blog? Yes. Do we have arm-chair meteorologists? Yes. Did I say anything incorrect? No. Now, are you gonna bark all day little doggie, or are we going to talk about the weather?

        • Troy says:

          Your problem is that EVERY post you make in response to almost EVERY other post is dripping with condescension…just like this post where you slam Rodger in Dodger (who btw has never said anything about you and doesn’t deserve your distain), and you do so in a completely hateful and trolling way…not in good fun like some others sometimes do. Contrary to your belief, you are in no way superior to anyone else who posts here and we are all wise to your scheme regardless of who you are or aren’t.

          • Admiral Ackbar says:

            Where did I claim to be superior? Where did I say anything bad about Rodger in Dodger? See, many users are making up their own head-cannon about what I am, who I am, and my intentions for this blog. We are communicating through the internet; you cannot decipher my tone, nor can you decipher my intent for the way in which I craft my posts. If my “edu-ma-cated speak” is condescending, then there is nothing I can do about it. I do not know how to “drop on your level” and speak like an 8th grader. There is nothing wrong with speaking like an 8th graders. 8th graders are fantastic. I will have an 8th grader in a local school in the coming years. It is fine. However, you cannot say that my posts are condescending simply because I discuss the science of weather, discuss weather models, discuss the factors pertaining to atmospheric conditions, and discuss different characteristics of the Earth’s climate. So, Troy, are we going to talk about the weather or would you rather talk about me? I am thinking about making a sister blog called “KyAdmiralAckbar” so that all of you can come to my comment section and tell me how you really feel. I will turn off the dirty word filter too.

            As for me, I think it is time to start talking about the weather.

      • Bjenks says:

        Well said MikeM

    • Bjenks says:

      Now Politics is weather. No the whining started years ago not just since 2016. Did you type that again from last evening? Oh copy and paste. My bad!

  7. Dale says:

    My ground is completely saturated so any drop that falls is heading straight to the creek

    • Admiral Ackbar says:

      What is your proximity to the creek in terms of your house, trailer, barn, garage, etc.? Do you think that you will be able to ride this one out or do you think that some problems arise that we need to be made aware of? If the ground is completely saturated and cannot hold anymore water, you are essentially in a large bathtub waiting to be filled. Good luck, pal. I would hate to lose another Dale.

      • Dale says:

        Dorton, Pike County, elevation 1000 feet, all ditches are bankful, creek rising. If this continues for another 12 hours, it could get bad here.

        • Admiral Ackbar says:

          Do we have a time frame on how much longer this weather system will be present? I was under the impression that no one location would receive rain longer than 24 hours. How is it looking there, Dale?

  8. Mike S says:

    Cordoba, Argentina might be the new world record holder for largest hailstone at 9″ across. Calculate terminal velocity on that one Ad Hac.

  9. C in BG says:

    Thanks Chris. I hope everyone has a great Saturday!

  10. Jared from Letcher County says:

    A lot of the smaller streams here are already near bankfull this morning. The latest WPC outlook doesn’t look good:

  11. Rodger in Dodger says:

    Wow guys, give up the bickering. If you don’t like someone’s posts, don’t read them. Rodger in Dodger

    • Admiral Ackbar says:

      Yes. I agree! Can we please discuss the weather? This is why you are my favorite user here. You always stay on topic, and you are always respectful.

  12. Debbie says:

    This is my last post. I liked it here. I liked some of the people here. Some I did not like, but that’s how it is in what is called “Life”.

    And the way it is with me, I will refrain from honoring Admiral Ackbar with a response to his last comment to me. Yes, yes, I COULD. It is not beneath me to come back with a very snappish & snarky retort, but not doing so makes me the better person.

    Thanks to everyone for the good times here through the years. Thanks to Chris and his time spent to give us quality forecasts and this blog. I will continue to watch your forecasts and read the blog posts you so selfishly put out for everyone.

    Oh, and…Later, “Seaman Recruit Ackbar”. You’ve been demoted.

    • Admiral Ackbar says:

      And now…back to weather discussion.

      • Mike S says:

        As intelligent as you claim to be, you are not smart enough to take a hint? Remember the nickname I gave you ‘Ad Hac’? Yes, a play on the word ‘ad hoc’. You know what it means, or do you? Your comments are formed and arranged for a specific purpose. Look it up, Ad Hac. We know what your specific purpose is for being here. Here’s hoping CB bans you troublemaker.

        • bjenks says:

          MikeM 😉 completely agree…

        • LeeAnnie says:

          All folks should take a comment moratorium. This has gotten ridiculous simply because of one person. I will continue to read what Mr. Bailey has to say, but the comment section shall remain closed. SMH……

        • Admiral Ackbar says:

          Why do you continue to persist to take this comment section off topic? I am no longer commenting on any posts that specifically reference me RATHER than the weather. However, I am sticking around. Get used to it.

    • Schroeder says:

      Debbie, please don’t leave the post. You make great comments. I quit yesterday, and found out that I continue to come back. I’ve tried to quit this blog about fifty times, but I’am a compulsive person, so I am returning to the comment section of the blog only to report weather and discuss weather. I will do so till Chris throws me off his blog. Have a great evening, and please reconsider your decision.

  13. bjenks says:

    AA,. Take a joke!!! I am so sorry that you feel like I attacked you this morning. It was meant as a joke, that is why it was followed with LOL. Quit getting your panties in a bunch. This is just a weather blog with a bunch of arm chair mets or weather weenies that love to follow Chris and the KWC. We also like to follow the TRENDS of the weather here in Kentucky and not the science of why these trends happen.

    The blog is fine just as it is, no need to change it. The number of comments have always gone up during the winter weather months and I generally only comment during these months. My thoughts have nothing to do with the number of comments that are achieved. I Just know that the more the hype of a big storm the more comments are made.

    Here are a few just from example.

    Feb 28, 2014 – 111 Comments
    March 2-3, 2015 – 200, 274, 270 comments
    Jan 12, 2018 – 249 and 144 comments

    Now Image if AA was around for these such events. Would you be able to keep up. I visit this site three times a day, you must have a program set up to let you know every time someone comments. You have a lot more time on your hands than I do mine. So keep commenting my friend. At the end of the day I will just read all the others and skip over yours.

  14. Terry says:

    I hit the 2.00 inch mark in Harlan at 3:25 PM. The rainfall rates now are near an inch per hour average rate, so dependent upon how long this band trains here, I could hit 3 inches much quicker than the previous two inches of precip fell. Even appears enough convection coming out of middle TN could give SE KY folk a bit of thunder but nothing strong storm wise. This event has me concerned that many will exceed those 4 inch totals, and maybe, some will exceed by quite a bit due to training and very slow eastward movement of the line……If only this could be snow!!!

  15. Clapp Landscaping says:

    My god. 67 comments about absolutely nothing. 3 we’re talking about rain they had. This site gets worse every year. I love following Chris but I think it’s time to turn off comments

    • Admiral Ackbar says:

      I completely agree. We are still staying pretty dry in Louisville. How are you all doing around the Lake Cumberland Region in terms of rainfall? Based on map interpretations, it would seem that they are currently being hit the hardest for flooding. Stay safe out there, girls, guys, and those who are transgender.

  16. Lori says:

    I live in Cincinnati and have been a long time lurker and occasional poster. The information Chris gives us is great and I appreciate his dedication to this site, as I’m sure all of the posters do as well. I left a Yoga Forum due to back and forth squabbles which often times escalated, getting quite ugly. Let’s not let this site get ugly. I truly enjoy the excitement you all share with snow and yes, sometimes the agony of no snow!

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