Saturday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. Heavy rain continues to cause issues across southern and eastern Kentucky, and we have more rain to come tonight and Sunday. The flood threat continues to increase in these areas.

Rainfall today has been very impressive in these areas…

 

Total rainfall of 4″+ are possible in the southern and southeastern parts of the state. This will increase the flood threat, with flooding along the Cumberland and Kentucky Rivers likely becoming a big problem. Moderate flooding is forecast along the Cumberland in Knox and Whitley counties.

If you live in a low-lying or flood prone area, please stay alert tonight and Sunday. Here are your tracking tools…

The final wave of precipitation coming in later Sunday and Monday may produce some frozen precipitation. The European Model continues to show some freezing rain in the west, with a few other bands showing up farther east…

The model continues to suggest a small swath of some wet snow Sunday night and early Monday…

The GFS is similar to the above maps, but has the usual coverage and placement differences…

Freezing Rain

Snow

The late week system is starting to get a little more of my attention, as the cold signals are trying to take control of the pattern again. The European Model brings a cold front in here by Friday, with a slow-moving wave of low pressure along it. That could lead to winter weather by late Friday and Saturday…

We have several days to watch and see how that mess plays out.

Make it a good one and take care.


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59 Responses to Saturday Evening Update

  1. feederband says:

    Dreary day in the Ohio Valley. It’s not too cold today but just a crappy weather day. Have a good one people.

    • Admiral Ackbar says:

      How much rain has your area received? Is the ground completely saturated at this point? I do hope that you are doing well, Feed.

  2. bjenks says:

    Hmmmmm…. should be fun one to watch from a week out. Is this the final push of Winter or will it run deep into Feb and on into March. The indices seem to pointing to a colder than normal after Valentines Day into March. . Still liking my thought that the Lou area receives our average for snow at 12+ inches for the season. Thanks for the update CB.

    • Admiral Ackbar says:

      Seeing 12+ inches of snow for the entire season would be fantastic. I realize that it looks bad now, but there is no argument that this winter has been extremely wet in terms of precipitation. It is impressive if I am to be honest with myself.

  3. Schroeder says:

    Today’s rainfall so far in the northern part of Taylor County is 0.88. I read all the post from this morning and no one ever discuss why it is raining ? Well I will do my best. A high pressure ridge to our east is moving moisture from the western Gulf of Mexico and colliding with cooler north Pacific air that has been present all winter. The rain shield is following the western edge of the high pressure to our east. It will continue to rain till a stronger high pressure to our northwest move in and ends the rain. If this pattern repeats, one of these storms may be a significant snow event for the state. Still hope snow lovers.

    • Admiral Ackbar says:

      We will definitely see, Schroeder. Why do you think that one of the storms may be a significant snow event for the state? What about the models suggests that “significant” snowfalls could take place?

    • Andy Rose says:

      I don’t think anybody cares WHY it is raining only the amount.

      • Admiral Ackbar says:

        Why did you go out of your way to interject yourself into this dialogue to state that “No one cares” when I do care, Schroeder cares, and others reading this blog may care? Why did you feel compelled to even comment on this exchange with nothing weather related? The only thing that you have added to this discussion is “NO ONE CARES!!!!! REEEEEEEE!”.

    • Prelude says:

      Oh for the love of Willard Scott!?! Schroeder you said yesterday was your last day of posting, actually you say that twice a month sometimes three times in a month for the past year. When are you going to actually honor what you say??? Back in the day, (you of all people should know this) a man’s word was his honor. Apparently that did not rub off on you.

      • Admiral Ackbar says:

        Another non-weather related comment. Just wanted to point that out to everyone.

        • Andy Rose says:

          You’re kinda hypocritical don’t you think.

          • Admiral Ackbar says:

            How much rain have you experienced in your neck of the woods at the moment? We are still expecting several more hours of rain before it decreases. Chris Bailey’s Twitter updates have been fascinating to read.

            • Andy Rose says:

              2+ inches. The NWS has changed the forecasted river crest. They are saying it will crest higher than originally thought.

              • Admiral Ackbar says:

                Based on what I can read from the models, the system has slowed in its speed along the projected trajectory. While the rain is not “heavier” than initially anticipated, the system’s reduction in speed is resulting in the same rain flux per unit of time or Precipitation Flux per Second. This is significantly altering rain totals in various areas around the state.

  4. Terry says:

    Approaching the 3.00 inch mark in Harlan with significant road flooding begining to develop due to ditches and waterfalls going beyond their usual paths of decent. The Cumberland River at Baxter is nearing flood stage already with no sign of let up forr at least the next 3 or so hours. I think we will end up much higher than predictions even on the RPM but I could be wrong.

    • Andy Rose says:

      Well you definitely hit the jackpot on the rain. I have 2.04 at my house .

    • Admiral Ackbar says:

      Terry, if you are interested, friend, I have responded to Andy Rose (above) with information that partially explains why totals seem to be higher than initially anticipated. I cannot believe that you have received that much rain in such a short amount of time. Since you are in the Eastern part of the state, you are going to experience so much more rain. Unbelievable. This system may not be a snow event, but can we just stand back and appreciate the momentous scale of this system in terms of precipitation?

      • Terry says:

        I don’t want to see anyone receive flood damage but can agree with you: It is an awesome system to track!

        • Admiral Ackbar says:

          I am eagerly awaiting the before/after photographs of what the system has done to the ground and the natural habitat. It is amazing to see this “spring system” arrive at the beginning of February.

  5. Schroeder says:

    Admiral, I don’t actually go by models. I know they are valuable to weather forecasting and are used all the time by meteorologist. I use the old time method, because I grew up in the 1950’s and 1960’s. This method I use is what I call observational weather forecasting. I earned a Bachelor Science degree in Agriculture and have had sixty six years of observing various weather events. I have forecast the weather when other meteorologist have failed. If I see a weather event coming I will let everyone know.

    • Admiral Ackbar says:

      The Farmer’s Almanac Method? Hahaha. Brilliant. I definitely do not subscribe that the method of weather forecasting. It sounds a bit…archaic…

    • Prelude says:

      Big deal Schroeder pretty much anyone can do observational weather forecasting. I can ask my 4 yr old grandson to look out the window and he will observe what he is seeing and say it’s cloudy and it’s raining outside.

  6. Jared from Letcher County says:

    Closing in on 3 inches here, water in places where there usually isn’t water. Looks like the North Fork of the Kentucky River will be in flood stage in a few hour at this rate.

  7. winter lover says:

    I’m one of the weather weenies that Chris established here in far Western part of state we haven’t received a drop. My prayers goes for the rest of state that’s received too much rain. I’m not going to say whole lot because it’s gotten to a point some people don’t know what this blog is about and has ran off lot of regulars that usually post on here. God bless!!

    • Admiral Ackbar says:

      I pray that the Maker sends rain your way. We definitely need it in the western part of the state. As for the rest of your post, I do agree that the bullying has ran off so many wonderful users. I do hope that they return. I love their weather related comments and insight. I love the updates from users across the state as well.

  8. Virgil says:

    #TeamSpring

  9. Jimbo says:

    I am near Huntington WV and have received about a tenth of an inch. Way below what was predicted, thank goodness. Looks like the heaviest is staying about 40 to 50 miles south.

    • Admiral Ackbar says:

      Did the system end up shifting south at the last minute or were the totals just not near what was predicted? This system is so expansive and moving so slowly that it seems that many meteorologists were thrown off by the energy continuously added to the system. It is a beast of a rain maker, and it has been delightful to watch.

      • Jimbo says:

        We appear to be on the northern edge of the rain all we have gotten so far is periodic light rain. Barely enough so far for puddles. I hear there is some flooding in a couple of the WV counties that border eastern KY.

        • Bjenks says:

          Same for Louisville metro. Been on the northern fringe all day. Kinda reminds me of the 15 hour snow fall we had a few weeks back. Just not the same amount Of precipitation wrapped up in that one. If this was falling in the cold of early January there would be Feet of snow. Just doesn’t happen that way for KY.

  10. Jeff Hamlin says:

    Hoping our blog friends in southern and eastern KY stay safe.

    • Andy Rose says:

      Thanks Hamlin

    • Troy says:

      Thanks Jeff. No flooding to speak of in Middlesboro yet, though the radar is still full.

      • Terry says:

        …..Bad in Harlan area-wide but not for me as I live on a hill with a low risk only for a rock slide. I am at 3.47 event total and still no end in sight. I think this could rival 2002 here!

        • Troy says:

          This one has no chance of coming close to the 5″ rain in less than 12 hours we had in 08′ that resulted in major flooding through downtown and many residential neighborhoods. Not sure of our totals thus far but don’t think there will be any issues here..hope the same for everyone.

        • Admiral Ackbar says:

          Terry, good luck. Truly. Good luck.

      • Admiral Ackbar says:

        I hope that Middlesboro continues to underperform based on model predictions. Do you know the approximate time in which the system we be finished raining in that area? Let’s hope that there is no sudden surge of gulf energy to increase rain fall amounts.

    • Admiral Ackbar says:

      Do we have any flood/rain updates from our Eastern Kentuckians? I always love to hear from them as they are located in one of the most unique locations in the world.

      • Andy Rose says:

        2.75 in my area. I was told they closed the Harlan flood gates? Terry?

        • Terry says:

          Yes. Around 11:00. The Cumberland River is over 5 feet above flood stage and still rising fast. For a little good news, our rainfall rate has slowed down considerably over the past hour or so now.

          I am at 3.62 while I type this.

          • Troy says:

            Wont be surprised to see Pineville flood gates closed next as well as possibly Barbourville as all that water makes its way down the Cumberland. Hope it doesn’t get any worse for you guys.

  11. Ruth says:

    I live near Ripley, WV. We’ve gotten rain but not as much as predicted, which is great! I have some relatives in Logan, WV. The south is having flooding issues, unfortunately.

  12. Rolo says:

    severe flooding in parts of Clay County starting to happen, Leslie Co as well. I cant believe that this flooding event is getting little coverage as far as updates from the blog, and from the news channel WEATHER A TEAMS, guess only snow gets the coverage. people lives threaten with water and their homes as well not worth the overtime pay. already been some rescues here in my area. stay safe everyone in SE KY as the Rain train set in for aawhile more as front is stationary and another low moving in.

  13. Rolo says:

    oh had 2.88 of rain of east 80 up curry branch in Clay County. road block, water everywhere.

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