Monday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. My focus over the next few weeks will continue to be about a setup that can produce more flooding issues across our region.

In my last post, I put the high water threat bulls eye right on trop of Kentucky, and the models continue to back me up on this. Take a look at the GFS rainfall forecast for the next week…

If we take that through all of next week, the numbers keep jumping…

Watch the series of systems working in, one right after another…

Nothing good can come from this setup, folks.

I will update again this evening, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.


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105 Responses to Monday Afternoon Update

  1. Virgil says:

    #TeamSpring

    • Joey says:

      You’re getting your spring with flooding rains… smh But yeah #TeamSpring lol

      • Admiral Ackbar says:

        Exactly! Spring seems to have arrived early while winter seemed to have arrived late. Looking back, it seems that winter only truly lasted the first six months of the year; temperatures were mild before the New Year and temperatures and moisture appear to be approaching spring levels.

        • Andy Rose says:

          Huh?

          • Admiral Ackbar says:

            Excellent catch, Andy, on my typo. Thank you for pointing it out as it was a critical error in my ability to communicate with others in this blog. Winter only truly lasted “SIX WEEKS” of the year. Thank you, Andy. I agree that it did not make any sense. While I can usually overlook the many spelling and grammatical errors of many of the users who post here, the mistake that I made pertaining to the time frame was simply unacceptable.

        • Schroeder says:

          Winter will hang on longer this year and years to follow, due to the decline in solar activity.

          • Admiral Ackbar says:

            Keep in mind that the sun-spot hypothesis is not even a theory. No scientist has certainly been able to prove the direct relationship between solar minimums and the Earth’s weather.

            • Schroeder says:

              What about Maunder Minimum which cause the ” Little Ice Age “, which happened many years ago in Europe. Yes it has been proven by science and meteorologists. The solar cycle we are in now suggest a long trend towards colder temperatures globally, slowly we are heading towards another Ice Age.

              • Admiral Ackbar says:

                Just because the Maunder Minimum coincided with the “Little Ice Age” does not necessarily mean that the two are directly linked. They may be related, but, no, Astrophysicists have not been able to prove that solar minimums are responsible for the cold temperatures of the Earth. We need to factor in the rotation of the Earth’s solid core and its affect on the planet’s magnetic field, the tilt of the Earth’s axis in relation to the sun, the distance that the Earth is from the sun at any time in the calendar year, the electromagnetic flux from the sun’s surface, the density/pressure/volumetric/thermal conditions of the Earth’s atmosphere, and man’s impact on the global climate. So, yes, solar minimums may be related, but it is only a hypothesis since the facts are not even strong enough to even suggest that the sun-spot-weather-linkage is a theory.

    • Admiral Ackbar says:

      #Hashtag

  2. Joey says:

    I might speak for myself but I would like at least one good snow before spring shows its soggy face. Wishful thinking though.

    • Admiral Ackbar says:

      I am sure that you are the proud voice of other “Winter Weenies” as well. So, keep the wishful thinking as the tilt of the Earth begins to orient the Earth in such a way that the northern hemisphere will be receiving more direct sunlight, and, therefore, more energy flux from the sunlight. Heating of the ground and the air will become much easier the closer we travel towards the Summer Solstice. Overall daily temperatures will slowly begin to rise.

      • Joey says:

        Just a guy that likes one good snow a year. Unforantanly your right and our chances are dwindling for that “wishful thinking snow”. Oh well, maybe next year.

        • Admiral Ackbar says:

          Do not worry, there will be a user who will chime in a bit later with a comment similar to, “i remember back in 19 and 72 when it snowed on June 1 so dont say winters over yet cause ive seen it snow a bunch in March of 82 and in April of 93. dont listen to AA cause he thinks hes a know it all!”. I do hope, for your sake, Joey, that we do get a large snow so that your fancy is tickled. However, do not let people who say that they have seen it snow in March and April convince you that it is a rule and not the exception.

          • Bobt says:

            True that it can snow in March and April, but the stars have to be aligned perfect for it to happen. Give me 50+ degree days from here on out and no complaints from me.

            • Admiral Ackbar says:

              Thank you, Bobt, for being a realist instead of trying to make an argument that implies that significant snow (more than snow that just falls from the sky and melts immediately whenever it hits the ground) normally falls in March and April. Users on this blog like to cite obscure winters in the 1980s and 1990s to argue that large snowfalls in March and April are common occurrences.

              • Schroeder says:

                Apparently you were not around in March 1960 when we received two feet of snow and temperatures of minus ten to minus fifteen degrees. This system came after a very mild winter.

                • Admiral Ackbar says:

                  No. I was not around in an era before JFK was gunned down in Dallas. You realize that weather trends need to rely on weather conditions from the last ten years rather than the last 100. See, climate and weather changes over time. Going back almost sixty years to use a “data point” is an exception…not the rule.

    • Schroeder says:

      No it’s not wishful thinking. February and March are our snowiest months here in the Ohio Valley.

      • Admiral Ackbar says:

        February, based on Chris’ models, seems to be a wash (pun intended) when it comes to winter weather. While March is too far out for us to observe, it is expected (not yet proven) that the average temperature of the day will be higher than in February. Also, it is best to refer back to trends of the past 10 years (rather than 100) to predict weather for a given year; our snowiest months have consistently been January and February since approximately 2009. March and April have generally been cold, but not necessarily snowy.

      • Formerly from KY says:

        Schroeder it doesn’t look like February snowfall going to happen and unless things change March’s snowfall is going to be a bust to.

        • Admiral Ackbar says:

          Schroeder is a major advocate of the Solar Minimum hypothesis that states that winter activity is a result of a reduction of sun spots on our nearest star. If the hypothesis is correct, there could be significant snow in March. I think Hell will need to freeze over first.

          • Schroeder says:

            Most of the Arctic air now is in Europe. That will change in just a few weeks and then we will be back in the freezer. And yes, I believe the sun does drive our weather. It’s all about electrical magnetic’s, that’s what weather is. the condition of the Atmosphere at any given time. And that could be just seconds.

            • Admiral Ackbar says:

              But the absence of only four sunspots does not affect the global climate on such a large scale. There are way too many factors to consider.

        • Schroeder says:

          You can’t forecast that.

          • Schroeder says:

            The above post is a reply for the guy living in Erie, Pa.

            • Formerly from KY says:

              Schroeder what can’t you forecast. I did mention in my above post that things need to change for March or snowfall will be a bust. What your saying has nothing to do for what I said.

              • Admiral Ackbar says:

                I think that Schroeder is a bit intimidated that someone is actually posting in this blog that works in a scientific field and knows how to explain scientific concepts with proof. It seems like Schroeder is used to being the “science guy” of the blog, but never had to fact check his claims since no one else had to knowledge to do so. He is essentially trying to “show me up”. Formerly from KY, you did not say anything incorrect in your post. Ignore Schroeder and move on. I love Schroeder, but he feels threatened that he will no longer be the comment section’s science guru.

            • Admiral Ackbar says:

              I have no idea why you think that this cannot be forecasted.

          • Admiral Ackbar says:

            What cannot be forecasted?

  3. Andy Rose says:

    This is drone footage of what it looks like in Barbourville near the flood wall https://www.facebook.com/courtney.k.campbell.9/videos/10156203102279884/. This is just one example.

    • Stormtracker_WV says:

      Thank you for sharing this amazing footage with us, but so sorry for those affected by this flooding, it’s terrible 🙁

    • Admiral Ackbar says:

      This footage will most likely make the national news if it has not already done so. It will undoubtedly be shown on several state news affiliates throughout the region. Andy, you are a good man, and a good man is hard to find.

  4. Sandy says:

    That’s a lot of rain!!

    • Admiral Ackbar says:

      Kentucky rain keeps falling dowwwwwwwnnnn dowwwwwnnnnnnnnn. **In the voice of Elvis Presley while eating a peanut butter, bacon, banana sandwich and choking on a Coca Cola**

  5. MarkS says:

    From predictions of a wintry cold Feb., to exact opposite, spring like rain and flooding…weird weather

    • Admiral Ackbar says:

      That is why they are called “predictions”. The “weather” did not change; the models are what have changed. The weather was always going to do what it will do in the future; we did not change the weather nor was it influenced by factors that were not already at play when the initial models were used for predictions. Please, please, please keep this in mind (I am referring to all users) that the weather did not change, but the models have changed as we get closer to dates in which the old models were referring to; this is always present during model runs of future predictions. Models are always updating their predictions as time progresses.

  6. SCITchr says:

    Thank you for the updates CB, very informative as always.

    • Admiral Ackbar says:

      Chris Bailey (Christ Bailey when it comes to discussing Kentucky Weather) pours his heart, soul, and brains into updating this blog and keeping Kentucky informed of the weather. I cannot thank that man enough.

  7. Beth Clark says:

    Bump it and get it unstuck!!! We don’t need all that rain like this!!!

    • Admiral Ackbar says:

      Thank you, Elizabeth, for your comment. However, I will gladly take this rain so that we can attempt to get out of our Kentucky drought.

      • Andy Rose says:

        We are not in a drought. If you want some rain the please visit. SEKY and take all you want.

        • Admiral Ackbar says:

          Andy, I am sure that the farmers in this great Commonwealth will appreciate the sustenance of the ground water that will be used to feed their crop whenever rain activity is lower in the Summer. While the rain my be inconvenient for you, we depend on this rain to give our local farmers the best chance of making a profit while feeding the world. Yeah, I will take the rain any day that it is provided.

          • Andy Rose says:

            So your a farmer now? An over abundance of rain can do more harm than a drought. When topsoil is washed away due to flooding it is not beneficial to gardeners or farmers. Its when you make absurd statements like this is why people think you and Schroeder are the same person.

            • Admiral Ackbar says:

              Yes. Whenever the plants are growing, an overabundance of rain can cause root rot, and it can cause major issues with the planting of seeds. However, seeds have not yet been planted, nor are the plants growing. In preparation to the planting season, it is best if the ground has plenty of moisture and water to provide the necessary nutrients for healthy and luscious plants. While I appreciate your feeble attempt to somehow try to prove me wrong, I probably need to go ahead and inform you that I minored in agriculture and come from a family with strong roots (pun intended) in farming. Andy, as always, your comments are appreciated even when they are wrong.

          • Schroeder says:

            I was a farmer and a wet spring does not mean you are going to have a great harvest.

            • Admiral Ackbar says:

              I did not say that a wet spring will bring a great harvest. Actually, I never even referenced crop yield. However, a well moistened ground with well moistened soil (not water logged) prior to the planting season provides the best conditions for the healthy growth of plants. However, the weather conditions during the plant growth phase are just as important to consider when discussing crop yields. Do we want a saturated ground for farmers? No. Do we want bone dry soil for farmers? No. Will this rain benefit farmers a couple of months in the future? Absolutely. So, if you can, please thank a farmer next time you see a farmer.

            • Schroeder says:

              Drought, may be a problem this growing season along with high temperatures a sure bet.

  8. Chris g in clay county says:

    Chris’ winter prediction looks right for late winter

    He mentions too much rain and early spring possible.

    http://www.wkyt.com/content/news/Chris-Baileys-Winter-Forecast–Colder-snowier-with-a-wild-50-degree-temperature-drop-one-day-458056333.html

    This is why i trust Chris’ forcasts and thoughts. He is more acurate then most.

    • Admiral Ackbar says:

      Shhhh. You are destroying the “But Chris said that we’d get a bunch a snow this year. Dad-gum it, he was wrong!”

  9. winter lover says:

    Some people did get snow we got 9 inches so far compare too none last year. Here in far western ky

    • Admiral Ackbar says:

      My colleagues in Lexington received 6 inches as well. However, Winter Lover, people will come onto this blog and complain about how we “have not seen any snow” this year. They just like to exaggerate. In their minds, the snow does not count unless it is at least 24 inches deep.

    • Schroeder says:

      I had twelve inches of snow and it was beautiful. We were snowbound for three days here in the hills of central Kentucky.

      • Admiral Ackbar says:

        That sounds absolutely dreadful to be snowbound. I feel sorry for the workers who live paycheck to paycheck who were unable to make it to work either because they could not afford childcare, could not find people to watch their children, or make it to work due to the snowed in conditions. Even missing out on $100.00 per day can really make or break a family in the Appalachia region of the United States. I do hope each person affected by the snow were able to recoup if overtime was available.

  10. Rainy day says:

    Admiral Ackbar, do you work, or do you just set around and post on a weather blog all day?

    • Admiral Ackbar says:

      How much money do you pull in annually at your place of employment? I am ready to compare when you are. As someone who works in a scientific field, I do have down time when data is processed or I am waiting on my underlings to input data into the different databases and systems at our disposal. I also have downtime when I must attend national meetings through Skype but sections of the meetings do not pertain to my line of work. Come, on. Let’s talk money. Let’s talk annual gross adjusted income. Come on.

  11. Lucy says:

    Looking at the over eighty comments, I thought it would be interesting to read comments, but with only two people rambling to one another, obviously I am not the only one staying away. For now, I will read blog only.

    • Admiral Ackbar says:

      I Love Lucy! What exactly are we “rambling” about? Your post is stating that you do not enjoy reading about the “science” of weather related phenomena. You just come here to read posts like, “Be safe out there, folks!”, “It’s a rainin’ here!”, “Dad-gum it! Looks like another bust of a winter!”, and the ever present, “Chris! You said the models were showing snow in February! What happened?!”. We now have discussion of weather, the causes of weather, updates about weather, and the answers to questions that doubt Chris Bailey. This blog has never been better in terms of content and educational benefit to the community.

  12. Kysno Ren says:

    This awesome blog is being ruined by condescending trolls. Commenting every now and then can be fun. Replying with a condescending tone to every comment someone leaves is uhhhh, strange/concerning. I used to enjoy reading the comments to see what regular users had to say was happening in their neck of the woods. Now the comment section is cluttered with nonsense and it’s like “it’s a trap”!

    • Admiral Ackbar says:

      Says the user who shows up with a user name of “Kysno Ren”. This comment section has never been better in terms of the education benefit to the community. We actually discuss the weather, causes for the weather, and provide answers to weather related questions.

      • MarkS says:

        You have a short memory. Comment section has been much better. But Trolls be Trolls

        • Admiral Ackbar says:

          How exactly am I a troll when I am the one who has been posting information, statistics, and discussions pertaining to the weather? I am so curious of your insight.

          • Mike S says:

            We do not need you to give us this. Nobody ordained you to be CB’s puppet. That’s why we have CB. This is his blog, his forum. By your own admission, you have disrespected his 10-yr pinnacle at providing us the necessary, I repeat the necessary information we need on his blog, something he is not required to do, but does so for not only our enjoyment, but I think even he gets a kick out of it too. But now…it’s come to this….

            • Admiral Ackbar says:

              You may not “need” me to give you scientific information, but no one “needs” anything other than food, water, and air.

          • MarkS says:

            Well, lets start with #hashtag. And then lets go to trying to use big words to seem important. Then calling out someone based on salary. Then calling someone Christ when you know it irks people.

            Not your blog to try and fix.

      • SCITchr says:

        I’m sorry, but you are incorrect AA. Your tone is very condescending and arrogant most of the time. You are not the only articulate intellect here. Most of the regular commenters are staying away, I imagine in an attempt to avoid you and a couple of others. Many of us have read and enjoyed this blog for a decade. While I note that you are very knowledgeable, the way you approach and attempt to communicate that knowledge to others is not very well received. People don’t like to feel that they are being talked down to. As I read the comment thread, that is how you are coming across more often than not. This blog is of great benefit to the community because of Chris Bailey, not you.

        • Admiral Ackbar says:

          I fully acknowledge that Chris Bailey’s contribution to the weather community is unparalleled. Much like you and other users who like to comment on this blog, I also like to make comments. I realize that my comments may not be the same comments that you would make, but that does not mean that my comments are any worse or better than your comments.

  13. Schroeder says:

    I’m off the comment section, till it gets back to the way it was. I don’t know about you guys, but I can’t stand much more of this Admiral Ackbar!!!!

  14. Schroeder says:

    TO CHRIS BAILEY: THE COMMENT SECTION OF YOUR BLOG WHICH YOU WORK ON CONSTANTLY IS BEING TAKEN OVER BY DOMINATION.

    • Admiral Ackbar says:

      What are you on about? You are being a drama queen. Are you gonna whine all day, little doggie, or are we going to discuss the weather, inform others of our weather conditions, and actually comment regarding Chris’ posts?

  15. MarkS says:

    Would it not be funny if AA is actually Rolo pulling a prank on everyone. That would be amazing.

  16. Jeff Hamlin says:

    So, Coffeelady it’s almost tree winter! 😉

  17. MR says:

    CB, please do something with the Wikipedia kid (AA)? We can’t take much more of nonsense… Thank you!!!

    • Admiral Ackbar says:

      Since when did two college degrees and a master’s degree equate to Wikipedia? No, I am proud to state that I craft my own posts and provide my own insight into weather related phenomena.

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